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BEST PRICE We back Stephens over Jones · Lightweight Our fair value$5.20 BetOnline.ag pays above fair $5.90
Where to back Stephens best price · region · EV vs fair $5.20
US BetOnline.ag $5.90 +13%
UK Virgin Bet $5.75 +10%
EU Unibet (EU) $5.75 +10%
AU TABtouch $5.75 +10%
Consensus66 picks · conf 74/99
Jones 50
16 Stephens
TMbHTB pick Jones
How it endsmethod calls · Stephens · crowd line
KO/TKO 6 $6.07
None 1 $36.42
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Jones 17-2 VS 29-22 Stephens
5'10" height 5'9"
156 lb weight 155 lb
74" reach 71"
31 age 40
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.7 strikes landed / min 3.2
59% striking accuracy 40%
3.8 strikes absorbed / min 3.0
58% striking defence 58%
0.6 takedowns / 15 min 1.2
67% takedown accuracy 38%
84% takedown defence 65%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 0.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market19% vs 17%
Consensus16 of 66 analysts
Sharpest angleStephens by KO/TKO — 6 of 7 method calls
Recommendation Back Stephens @ $5.90 · fair $5.20 +13% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GM GLO MMA picks Mason Jones “from Mason Jones. Uh but Jeremy Stevens, and pick Mason Jones. Get it done by it. But still, I feel like Mason Jones to go and pick Mason Jones by decision.”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Jeremy Stephens VALUE $5.30
TD The Rambling Dad picks Mason Jones VALUE $1.17
VI VinceMMA picks Mason Jones VALUE “Mason Jones is going to destroy Jeremy Stephens”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Mason Jones “I'm going with with I'm going to be crazy. I'm going to be daring and I'm going to go with the minus 500 favorite... Mason Mason Jones.” $1.15
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Mason Jones “I am picking Mason Jones to beat Jeremy Stevens.” $1.12
CZ Czaleo picks Mason Jones “I already picked Mason Jones. ... I'm going to say the dragon gets a knockout”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Jeremy Stephens VALUE “I'm not hesitating to picking Jeremy Stephens for the win here.” $5.00
GA GABODDS picks Mason Jones VALUE “definitively aquí Jones”
FF Fights & Frags picks Mason Jones “I guess I'd go with Mason Jones, but you know, Jeremy Stephens is the hardest hit 145, so you can never doubt him.”
MM MMAWeekly.com picks Jeremy Stephens “Mason Jones takes on the returning EVENT_DETAILS native Jeremy Stephens. Go [Music] [Applause] Jeremy Stephens”
UB UFC Brasil picks Mason Jones “It begins in the lightweight division. Mason Jones takes on the returning EVENT_DETAILS Jeremy Stephens”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Jones17-2
W Sola Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Oki KO/TKO · R2 Sep '25
W Stephens Decision · R3 May '25
L Klein Decision · R3 Jul '22
W Onama Decision · R3 Oct '21
Stephens29-22
L Green Submission · R1 May '26
L Jones Decision · R3 May '25
L Gamrot Submission · R1 Jul '21
L Kattar KO/TKO · R2 May '20
L Rodríguez Decision · R3 Oct '19