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CS DF Sandhagen vs FigueiredoMain Card · Bantamweight RR BN Ridder vs NickalMain Card · Middleweight DR SP Rodriguez vs PonzinibbioMain Card · Welterweight MJ DM Jackson vs MarcosMain Card · Bantamweight SS CS Sidey vs SmothermanMain Card · Bantamweight MJ JS Jones vs StephensMain Card · Lightweight YS MT Santos vs TatePreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight AB RL Bekoev vs LoderPreliminary Card · Middleweight GR MR Robertson vs RodriguezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight QL GB Le vs BolañosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight TP DM Petersen vs MayesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight JM IP Miller vs PetrovićPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BEST PRICE We back Rodriguez over Ponzinibbio · Welterweight Our fair value$2.20 Caesars pays above fair $2.30
Where to back Rodriguez best price · region · EV vs fair $2.20
US Caesars $2.30 +5%
UK Virgin Bet $2.18 -1%
EU Pinnacle $2.25 +2%
AU TABtouch $2.18 -1%
Consensus71 picks · conf 76/99
Rodriguez 35
36 Ponzinibbio
THBMKW pick Rodriguez
How it endsmethod calls · Rodriguez · crowd line
KO/TKO 4 $6.59
Submission 1 $26.37
Decision 7 $3.77
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Rodriguez 18-5 VS 30-8 Ponzinibbio
6'1" height 6'0"
170 lb weight 170 lb
74" reach 73"
39 age 39
Southpaw stance Orthodox
7.5 strikes landed / min 4.7
49% striking accuracy 41%
5.5 strikes absorbed / min 4.5
58% striking defence 61%
0.6 takedowns / 15 min 0.6
54% takedown accuracy 32%
57% takedown defence 66%
0.1 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market46% vs 43%
Consensus35 of 71 analysts
Sharpest angleRodriguez by Decision — 7 of 12 method calls
Recommendation Back Rodriguez @ $2.30 · fair $2.20 +5% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE $2.00
VI VinceMMA picks Santiago Ponzinibbio VALUE “I'm going Santiago Panzanibio by decision”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE “I'm gonna go with Daniel Rodriguez.” $2.00
CM Coty MMA picks Santiago Ponzinibbio VALUE “Give me Santiago Pontinibio plus 105.” $2.05
CZ Czaleo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio “I went with Santiago Ponzinibbio. ... I'm going to say Santiago Ponzinibbio catches him with something”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Santiago Ponzinibbio VALUE “yo digo que paga muy bien y lo veo favorito en este duelo porque Daniel Rodríguez en las últimas peleas ha dejado que desear” $1.87
GA GABODDS picks Daniel Rodriguez “Yo yo me iría por Pon Nivio”
KM KZ MMA picks Daniel Rodriguez “I like Ponzibio to get this done.”
WW Wages & Warriors picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE “I'm going to lean on Daniel Daniel Rodriguez to win this fight and that's at plus 110 and I'm gonna take that all the way to the bank.” $2.10
RP Rparqs picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE “Daniel Rodriguez's going to be the pick here, the bed here, man.”
UB UFC Brasil picks Daniel Rodriguez “Next we move to the welterweight division. Daniel Rodriguez squares off against Santiago Ponzinibbio”
GP Ground"N"Pound Podcast picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE “And next up for our moneyline players, we've got Daniel Rodriguez. And this is really just a play on the fact that I think Daniel Rodriguez out of the two is the less washed... So, give me him plus 100 as one of our uh best bets here on the money line.” $2.00
Recent form last five, most recent first
Rodriguez18-5
W Holland Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Ponzinibbio KO/TKO · R3 May '25
W Morono Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Gastelum Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Garry KO/TKO · R1 May '23
Ponzinibbio30-8
L Rodriguez KO/TKO · R3 May '25
W Harris KO/TKO · R3 Jan '25
L Salikhov Decision · R3 Jul '24
L Holland KO/TKO · R3 Apr '23
W Morono KO/TKO · R3 Dec '22