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DF
Sandhagen vs FigueiredoMain Card · Bantamweight
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BN
Ridder vs NickalMain Card · Middleweight
DR
SP
Rodriguez vs PonzinibbioMain Card · Welterweight
MJ
DM
Jackson vs MarcosMain Card · Bantamweight
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CS
Sidey vs SmothermanMain Card · Bantamweight
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Jones vs StephensMain Card · Lightweight
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MT
Santos vs TatePreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
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RL
Bekoev vs LoderPreliminary Card · Middleweight
GR
MR
Robertson vs RodriguezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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GB
Le vs BolañosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
TP
DM
Petersen vs MayesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
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IP
Miller vs PetrovićPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
DF
Sandhagen vs FigueiredoMain Card · Bantamweight
RR
BN
Ridder vs NickalMain Card · Middleweight
DR
SP
Rodriguez vs PonzinibbioMain Card · Welterweight
MJ
DM
Jackson vs MarcosMain Card · Bantamweight
SS
CS
Sidey vs SmothermanMain Card · Bantamweight
MJ
JS
Jones vs StephensMain Card · Lightweight
YS
MT
Santos vs TatePreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
AB
RL
Bekoev vs LoderPreliminary Card · Middleweight
GR
MR
Robertson vs RodriguezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
QL
GB
Le vs BolañosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
TP
DM
Petersen vs MayesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
JM
IP
Miller vs PetrovićPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Rodriguez
over Ponzinibbio · Welterweight
Our fair value$2.20
pays above fair
$2.30
Best prices · Rodriguez
Caesars · US
$2.30
Virgin Bet · UK
$2.18
Where to back Rodriguez
best price · region · EV vs fair $2.20
US
Caesars
$2.30
+5%
Caesars
$2.30
+5%
UK
Virgin Bet
$2.18
-1%
Virgin Bet
$2.18
-1%
EU
Pinnacle
$2.25
+2%
AU
TABtouch
$2.18
-1%
How it endsmethod calls · Rodriguez · crowd line
KO/TKO
4
$6.59
Submission
1
$26.37
Decision
7
$3.77
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Rodriguez 18-5
VS
30-8 Ponzinibbio
6'1"
height
6'0"
170 lb
weight
170 lb
74"
reach
73"
39
age
39
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
7.5
strikes landed / min
4.7
49%
striking accuracy
41%
5.5
strikes absorbed / min
4.5
58%
striking defence
61%
0.6
takedowns / 15 min
0.6
54%
takedown accuracy
32%
57%
takedown defence
66%
0.1
submissions / 15 min
0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market46% vs 43%
Consensus35 of 71 analysts
Sharpest angleRodriguez by Decision — 7 of 12 method calls
Recommendation
Back Rodriguez @ $2.30 · fair $2.20
+5% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
VI
VinceMMA picks Santiago Ponzinibbio VALUE
“I'm going Santiago Panzanibio by decision”
CZ
Czaleo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio
“I went with Santiago Ponzinibbio. ... I'm going to say Santiago Ponzinibbio catches him with something”
LE
LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Santiago Ponzinibbio VALUE
“yo digo que paga muy bien y lo veo favorito en este duelo porque Daniel Rodríguez en las últimas peleas ha dejado que desear”
$1.87
GA
GABODDS picks Daniel Rodriguez
“Yo yo me iría por Pon Nivio”
KM
KZ MMA picks Daniel Rodriguez
“I like Ponzibio to get this done.”
WW
Wages & Warriors picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE
“I'm going to lean on Daniel Daniel Rodriguez to win this fight and that's at plus 110 and I'm gonna take that all the way to the bank.”
$2.10
RP
Rparqs picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE
“Daniel Rodriguez's going to be the pick here, the bed here, man.”
UB
UFC Brasil picks Daniel Rodriguez
“Next we move to the welterweight division. Daniel Rodriguez squares off against Santiago Ponzinibbio”
GP
Ground"N"Pound Podcast picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE
“And next up for our moneyline players, we've got Daniel Rodriguez. And this is really just a play on the fact that I think Daniel Rodriguez out of the two is the less washed... So, give me him plus 100 as one of our uh best bets here on the money line.”
$2.00
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Rodriguez18-5
W
Holland
Jul '25
W
Ponzinibbio
May '25
W
Morono
Oct '24
L
Gastelum
Jun '24
L
Garry
May '23
Ponzinibbio30-8
L
Rodriguez
May '25
W
Harris
Jan '25
L
Salikhov
Jul '24
L
Holland
Apr '23
W
Morono
Dec '22