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UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
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JM BM Maddalena vs MuhammadMain Card · Welterweight VS MF Shevchenko vs FiorotMain Card · Women'S Flyweight AZ JA Zahabi vs AldoMain Card · Featherweight NS AG Silva vs GrassoMain Card · Women'S Flyweight BD KP Denis vs PrepolecMain Card · Lightweight MM CR Malott vs RadtkePreliminary Card · Welterweight JJ JA Jasudavicius vs AndradePreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight MB IC Bukauskas vs CuțelabaPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight NS IE Stirling vs ErslanPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight MB BS Barriault vs SilvaEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight DS LJ Santos vs Jeong-yeongEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight BA BK Almakhan vs KatonaEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE We back Aldo over Zahabi · Featherweight Our fair value$1.51 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.57
Where to back Aldo best price · region · EV vs fair $1.51
US Caesars $1.56 +4%
UK LiveScore Bet $1.55 +3%
EU Pinnacle $1.57 +4%
AU Unibet $1.55 +3%
Consensus126 picks · conf 99/99
Zahabi 34
92 Aldo
YENTMJ pick Zahabi
How it endsmethod calls · Aldo · crowd line
KO/TKO 20 $4.14
Decision 34 $2.44
None 1 $82.89
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Zahabi 14-2 VS 32-9 Aldo
5'8" height 5'7"
135 lb weight 143 lb
69" reach 70"
38 age 39
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.9 strikes landed / min 3.6
45% striking accuracy 46%
3.6 strikes absorbed / min 3.7
67% striking defence 60%
1.1 takedowns / 15 min 0.5
69% takedown accuracy 53%
88% takedown defence 92%
0.9 submissions / 15 min 0.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market66% vs 64%
Consensus92 of 126 analysts
Sharpest angleAldo by Decision — 34 of 55 method calls
Recommendation Back Aldo @ $1.57 · fair $1.51 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MC MMA MEDIA CLIPS picks José Aldo “I'm also scared. But what about José Aldo at 145?”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks José Aldo “I'm gonna go with José Aldo.”
TD The Rambling Dad picks José Aldo VALUE “I'm going to be picking José Aldo here”
CS CBS Sports picks José Aldo “I expect José José Aldo, the king of Rio, to remind us exactly who he is.”
WT WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Aiemann Zahabi VALUE “I'm thinking Aean Aiemann Zahabi to get the job done.” $2.75
DM DMan&MariPulls picks José Aldo “we're going with José Aldo.”
BU BunkyMMA picks José Aldo “I'm extra confident that José Aldo is gonna take out another Canadian.”
LP Lonely Stoners Podcast picks José Aldo “I'm going José Aldo, man.”
MA Mahkaveli picks José Aldo “So, I'm going with Oliver to win.”
TT Takedown Titan picks José Aldo “I'm going to go with the Asian says”
TT Takedown Titan picks Aiemann Zahabi “I'm thinking Aiemann Zahabi is going to win by boring boringness”
EB ESPN BET picks Aiemann Zahabi VALUE “I like Aiemann Zahabi to win. You want to get greedy, Aiemann Zahabi by decision.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Zahabi14-2
L O'Malley KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
W Vera Decision · R3 Oct '25
W Aldo Decision · R3 May '25
W Munhoz Decision · R3 Nov '24
W Basharat Decision · R3 Mar '24
Aldo32-9
L Zahabi Decision · R3 May '25
L Bautista Decision · R3 Oct '24
W Martinez Decision · R3 May '24
L Dvalishvili Decision · R3 Aug '22
W Font Decision · R5 Dec '21