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UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
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JM BM Maddalena vs MuhammadMain Card · Welterweight VS MF Shevchenko vs FiorotMain Card · Women'S Flyweight AZ JA Zahabi vs AldoMain Card · Featherweight NS AG Silva vs GrassoMain Card · Women'S Flyweight BD KP Denis vs PrepolecMain Card · Lightweight MM CR Malott vs RadtkePreliminary Card · Welterweight JJ JA Jasudavicius vs AndradePreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight MB IC Bukauskas vs CuțelabaPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight NS IE Stirling vs ErslanPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight MB BS Barriault vs SilvaEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight DS LJ Santos vs Jeong-yeongEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight BA BK Almakhan vs KatonaEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE We back Prepolec over Saint Denis · Lightweight Our fair value$9.27 BetOnline.ag pays above fair $11.00
Where to back Prepolec best price · region · EV vs fair $9.27
US BetOnline.ag $11.00 +19%
UK Unibet (UK) $8.50 -8%
EU Coolbet $10.25 +11%
AU Ladbrokes AU $9.75 +5%
Consensus60 picks · conf 73/99
Saint Denis 51
9 Prepolec
TBPNTF pick Saint Denis
How it endsmethod calls · Prepolec · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $18.54
Submission 1 $18.54
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Saint Denis 16-3 VS 18-9 Prepolec
5'11" height 5'10"
156 lb weight 155 lb
73" reach 70"
30 age 36
Southpaw stance Southpaw
4.4 strikes landed / min 3.6
40% striking accuracy 52%
5.0 strikes absorbed / min 2.1
73% striking defence 50%
1.9 takedowns / 15 min 1.8
57% takedown accuracy 74%
54% takedown defence 73%
1.7 submissions / 15 min 0.3
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market11% vs 9%
Consensus9 of 60 analysts
Sharpest anglePrepolec by KO/TKO — 1 of 2 method calls
Recommendation Back Prepolec @ $11.00 · fair $9.27 +19% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CO ColdSunday picks Benoît Saint Denis “I was going to Ben Wallen.”
MA Mahkaveli picks Benoît Saint Denis “If Ben Wis can't get past this guy who is stepping in on last minute notice and win, then we just figured out that Benoît Saint Denis was never that guy.”
PN Picks Nation picks Benoît Saint Denis VALUE “I'm going to take the easy route and go Benoît Benoît Saint Denisis.”
TT Takedown Titan picks Benoît Saint Denis “I think Benoît Saint Denis Walsh would win this cuz I don't I don't see Kyle Prepolec winning this”
MP MMA Brothers Podcast picks Benoît Saint Denis VALUE “I picked Benoît Saint Denis as a money line”
VM Verbal Sparring MMA picks Benoît Saint Denis “There's a reason he's a minus 1000 favorite” $1.10
PM Pyraxy MMA picks Benoît Saint Denis VALUE “Benoît Saint Denis is probably going to run through this fella. Um, if he's anywhere near minus 100, take it.”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Kyle Prepolec “I'm going to go with the over. I actually do think it goes over... Kyle Prepolec money line best bet? No, I'm just joking.” $8.50
PN Picks Nation picks Benoît Saint Denis “Benois is obviously the pick, but at these odds, who cares?” $1.10
PE Pat Egan picks Benoît Saint Denis “just know Benoît Saint Denis Den is going to go out there and he is going to get back in the wing column in a big way.”
GM GLO MMA picks Benoît Saint Denis VALUE “I'm going to pick a B Benwis that needs to get this [__] done by knockout in the first round.”
TH ThatBettingDude picks Benoît Saint Denis VALUE “He's going to finish him fairly early”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Saint Denis16-3
W Hooker KO/TKO · R2 Feb '26
W Dariush KO/TKO · R1 Nov '25
W Ruffy Submission · R2 Sep '25
W Prepolec Submission · R2 May '25
L Moicano KO/TKO · R2 Sep '24
Prepolec18-9
L Dober KO/TKO · R3 Oct '25
L Denis Submission · R2 May '25
L Hubbard Decision · R3 Sep '19
L Taleb Decision · R3 May '19