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UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
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JM BM Maddalena vs MuhammadMain Card · Welterweight VS MF Shevchenko vs FiorotMain Card · Women'S Flyweight AZ JA Zahabi vs AldoMain Card · Featherweight NS AG Silva vs GrassoMain Card · Women'S Flyweight BD KP Denis vs PrepolecMain Card · Lightweight MM CR Malott vs RadtkePreliminary Card · Welterweight JJ JA Jasudavicius vs AndradePreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight MB IC Bukauskas vs CuțelabaPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight NS IE Stirling vs ErslanPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight MB BS Barriault vs SilvaEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight DS LJ Santos vs Jeong-yeongEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight BA BK Almakhan vs KatonaEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE We back Bukauskas over Cuțelaba · Light Heavyweight Our fair value$1.96 Betsson pays above fair $2.02
Where to back Bukauskas best price · region · EV vs fair $1.96
US FanDuel $1.94 -1%
UK Grosvenor $1.92 -2%
EU Betsson $2.02 +3%
AU TAB $2.00 +2%
Consensus73 picks · conf 76/99
Bukauskas 40
33 Cuțelaba
OBORJT pick Bukauskas
How it endsmethod calls · Bukauskas · crowd line
KO/TKO 7 $5.04
Submission 2 $17.63
Decision 7 $5.04
None 2 $17.63
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Bukauskas 19-7 VS 18-10-1 Cuțelaba
6'3" height —
204 lb weight —
78" reach —
32 age 32
Switch stance Southpaw
4.4 strikes landed / min 4.3
47% striking accuracy 43%
2.8 strikes absorbed / min 3.3
64% striking defence 46%
2.2 takedowns / 15 min 4.0
30% takedown accuracy 52%
58% takedown defence 75%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market51% vs 50%
Consensus40 of 73 analysts
Sharpest angleBukauskas by KO/TKO — 7 of 18 method calls
Recommendation Back Bukauskas @ $2.02 · fair $1.96 +3% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Modestas Bukauskas “I'm gonna go with Modestas Bukauskas”
WT WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Modestas Bukauskas VALUE “I will be taking him at minus 110.” $1.91
CA ContraGolpe - Analisa picks Ion Cuțelaba VALUE “Vou colocar apenas vitória seca do Ion Cuțelaba”
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Ion Cuțelaba
BU BunkyMMA picks Ion Cuțelaba “I am going to go Cudabella here.”
OZ OzMMA picks Modestas Bukauskas “I'm going to take Modestas Bukauskas on this one”
VM Verbal Sparring MMA picks Modestas Bukauskas VALUE “I'm big on Modestus that's coming back from his knee injury. So, we'll see if he can get that victory”
PM Pyraxy MMA picks Ion Cuțelaba “Big Eon Coutaba fan here. Okay. Uh, I do enjoy a little bit of Eon Coutalaba... do I think Modestas Bukauskas is top 15 material? No.”
MB Michael Bisping picks Modestas Bukauskas “Modestas Picowskus will win this fight.”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Ion Cuțelaba VALUE “I have a two-unit shot here on Ion Cuțelaba at plus 100.” $2.00
TD The DubCast picks Modestas Bukauskas “I'm going to go with Modestas Bukauskas.”
PN Picks Nation picks Modestas Bukauskas VALUE “The pick is going to be Modestas Bukauskas.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Bukauskas19-7
W Edwards Decision · R3 May '26
L Krylov KO/TKO · R3 Jan '26
W Craig KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25
W Cuțelaba Decision · R3 May '25
W Cerqueira KO/TKO · R1 Feb '25
Cuțelaba18-10-1
L Stirling KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
W Sy Submission · R1 Mar '26
L Bukauskas Decision · R3 May '25
W Aslan Submission · R1 Feb '25
W Erslan Decision · R3 Sep '24