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UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
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JM BM Maddalena vs MuhammadMain Card · Welterweight VS MF Shevchenko vs FiorotMain Card · Women'S Flyweight AZ JA Zahabi vs AldoMain Card · Featherweight NS AG Silva vs GrassoMain Card · Women'S Flyweight BD KP Denis vs PrepolecMain Card · Lightweight MM CR Malott vs RadtkePreliminary Card · Welterweight JJ JA Jasudavicius vs AndradePreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight MB IC Bukauskas vs CuțelabaPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight NS IE Stirling vs ErslanPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight MB BS Barriault vs SilvaEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight DS LJ Santos vs Jeong-yeongEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight BA BK Almakhan vs KatonaEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE We back Radtke over Malott · Welterweight Our fair value$2.65 ESPN BET pays above fair $2.85
Where to back Radtke best price · region · EV vs fair $2.65
US ESPN BET $2.85 +8%
UK Grosvenor $2.75 +4%
EU Pinnacle $2.83 +7%
AU TABtouch $2.75 +4%
Consensus84 picks · conf 80/99
Malott 47
37 Radtke
TMSBRT pick Malott
How it endsmethod calls · Radtke · crowd line
KO/TKO 25 $2.86
Submission 1 $71.45
Decision 1 $71.45
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Malott 13-2-1 VS 11-5 Radtke
6'1" height 5'9"
171 lb weight 171 lb
73" reach 72"
34 age 35
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.8 strikes landed / min 3.4
56% striking accuracy 53%
3.1 strikes absorbed / min 3.0
51% striking defence 56%
2.4 takedowns / 15 min 0.6
29% takedown accuracy 12%
60% takedown defence 100%
0.1 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market38% vs 35%
Consensus37 of 84 analysts
Sharpest angleRadtke by KO/TKO — 25 of 27 method calls
Recommendation Back Radtke @ $2.85 · fair $2.65 +8% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Mike Malott VALUE “I'm going to go with Mike Malott Mike Malott”
CA ContraGolpe - Analisa picks Mike Malott VALUE “Vou de vitória seca aí do Mike Malott”
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Mike Malott “We're going to go Mike Malott. We're win.”
BU BunkyMMA picks Charles Radtke “give me Charles Radtke.”
BM Blunt MMA picks Charles Radtke “I will go with Charles Radtke.”
PN Picks Nation picks Mike Malott VALUE “My dog of the week is going to be Charles Radkkey.”
BE BetSam picks Mike Malott “I am picking Mike Malott.”
EB ESPN BET picks Charles Radtke VALUE “I think Charles Radtke not only is a live dog here... Charles Radtke at plus 140.” $2.40
PM Pyraxy MMA picks Charles Radtke “I'm going with Charles Radtke. You know, America.”
MB Michael Bisping picks Mike Malott “he beats Charles Radtke.”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Charles Radtke VALUE “I got Charles Radtke one unit plus 215. ... And then I also have a cord unit on the racky submission plus 1,600.” $3.15
TD The DubCast picks Mike Malott “I went with Mike Malott.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Malott13-2-1
W Burns KO/TKO · R3 Apr '26
W Holland Decision · R3 Oct '25
W Radtke KO/TKO · R2 May '25
W Giles Decision · R3 Nov '24
L Magny KO/TKO · R3 Jan '24
Radtke11-5
W Prado Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Frunza Submission · R3 Nov '25
L Malott KO/TKO · R2 May '25
W Semelsberger KO/TKO · R1 Nov '24
L Prates KO/TKO · R1 Jun '24