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UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
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JM BM Maddalena vs MuhammadMain Card · Welterweight VS MF Shevchenko vs FiorotMain Card · Women'S Flyweight AZ JA Zahabi vs AldoMain Card · Featherweight NS AG Silva vs GrassoMain Card · Women'S Flyweight BD KP Denis vs PrepolecMain Card · Lightweight MM CR Malott vs RadtkePreliminary Card · Welterweight JJ JA Jasudavicius vs AndradePreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight MB IC Bukauskas vs CuțelabaPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight NS IE Stirling vs ErslanPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight MB BS Barriault vs SilvaEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight DS LJ Santos vs Jeong-yeongEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight BA BK Almakhan vs KatonaEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE We back Katona over Almakhan · Bantamweight Our fair value$2.24 Betsson pays above fair $2.35
Where to back Katona best price · region · EV vs fair $2.24
US BetMGM $2.30 +3%
UK Unibet (UK) $2.23 -0%
EU Betsson $2.35 +5%
AU PointsBet (AU) $2.25 +0%
Consensus58 picks · conf 72/99
Almakhan 29
29 Katona
SBRBTU pick Almakhan
How it endsmethod calls · Katona · crowd line
KO/TKO 2 $17.93
Decision 11 $3.26
None 3 $11.95
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Almakhan 12-3 VS 16-4 Katona
5'7" height 5'6"
136 lb weight 136 lb
68" reach 65"
28 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
0.2 strikes landed / min 4.8
18% striking accuracy 52%
4.5 strikes absorbed / min 4.7
30% striking defence 50%
0.0 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
0% takedown accuracy 34%
0% takedown defence 61%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market45% vs 43%
Consensus29 of 58 analysts
Sharpest angleKatona by Decision — 11 of 16 method calls
Recommendation Back Katona @ $2.35 · fair $2.24 +5% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CA ContraGolpe - Analisa picks Brad Katona VALUE “a minha expectativa é uma vitória do Catona por decisão”
MP MMA Brothers Podcast picks Bekzat Almakhan VALUE “I picked this one. Money line. Um, Bekzat Almakhan.”
PM Pyraxy MMA picks Bekzat Almakhan “I got Bekzat Almakhan. I'm not picking a Canadian fella.”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Brad Katona VALUE “I have 1.25 units on Brag Katona at plus 160. ... I like the dog shot on Brad Katona taking it for 1.25 units at plus 160.” $2.60
TD The DubCast picks Brad Katona “so I'm against Bekzat Almakhan.”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Bekzat Almakhan VALUE “Yeah, I would go for Alamar Alamar. It's Scotland back. It's gone back. So, yeah, I think he's competitive. Very competitive. Turner's going to fight for your money, but it's tough tough to trust him. Tough to trust him. Yeah, go for go for Begs. He's 27. He's good. He does some bad stuff, but yeah, he's good. So, he probably wins a minor CV, but yeah, that's where I'm at. money line like minus 141 best price.” $1.71
PN Picks Nation picks Brad Katona VALUE “Brad Katona is my pick.” $2.61
SP SpeedBets picks Bekzat Almakhan VALUE “give me back out to win this fight. 2928 on the cards.”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Bekzat Almakhan “so my subscribers and I are going with Bekzat Almakhan.”
SP SportsLine picks Bekzat Almakhan VALUE “Bekzat Almakhan on the money line at guilty of underestimating Brad Katona”
LO LorenzoPredicts picks Brad Katona VALUE “Brad Kona. Brad Katona wins. He wins... Brad Katona beats Bekzat Almakhan and he does it by decision as well.”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Brad Katona VALUE “Brad Katona Katona's good, man. You you guys like hate on Brad Katona Katona and I I get it. Like he's boring. He's a little bit of a freak, you know? You better check his hard drive. He's got some [ __ ] on there. But man, he's a good fighter. He really” $2.36
Recent form last five, most recent first
Almakhan12-3
L Matsumoto Decision · R3 Jun '26
L Topuria Decision · R3 Nov '25
W Katona KO/TKO · R1 May '25
L Nurmagomedov Decision · R3 Mar '24
Katona16-4
L Almakhan KO/TKO · R1 May '25
L Matsumoto Decision · R3 Oct '24
W Butler Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Armfield Decision · R3 Jan '24
W Gibson Decision · R3 Aug '23