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UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
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IM RM Makhachev vs MoicanoMain Card · Lightweight MD UN Dvalishvili vs NurmagomedovMain Card · Bantamweight JP JH Procházka vs HillMain Card · Light Heavyweight JA SS Almeida vs SpivacMain Card · Heavyweight RR KH Ridder vs HollandMain Card · Middleweight RB PT Barcelos vs TalbottPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AB ZR Bekoev vs ReesePreliminary Card · Middleweight BG BE Guskov vs ElekanaPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight GD CF Dawson vs FerreiraPreliminary Card · Lightweight AP KR Pérez vs RosaEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight MG RN Gafurov vs NakamuraEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight BS RT Sopaj vs TurciosEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight TU CC Ulanbekov vs CarpenterEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
BEST PRICE We back Moicano over Makhachev · Lightweight Our fair value$6.77 BetOnline.ag pays above fair $10.00
Where to back Moicano best price · region · EV vs fair $6.77
US BetOnline.ag $10.00 +48%
UK Unibet (UK) $8.00 +18%
EU NordicBet $9.50 +40%
AU Ladbrokes AU $8.75 +29%
Consensus121 picks · conf 96/99
Makhachev 91
30 Moicano
CPPBJJ pick Makhachev
How it endsmethod calls · Moicano · crowd line
KO/TKO 12 $12.98
Submission 2 $77.87
Decision 8 $19.47
None 1 $155.74
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Makhachev 27-1 VS 20-7-1 Moicano
5'10" height 5'11"
170 lb weight 155 lb
70" reach 72"
34 age 37
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.4 strikes landed / min 4.4
49% striking accuracy 49%
1.9 strikes absorbed / min 3.6
66% striking defence 60%
3.9 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
49% takedown accuracy 44%
90% takedown defence 72%
1.1 submissions / 15 min 0.6
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market15% vs 10%
Consensus30 of 121 analysts
Sharpest angleMoicano by KO/TKO — 12 of 23 method calls
Recommendation Back Moicano @ $10.00 · fair $6.77 +48% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CC Combat Sports Central picks Islam Makhachev “I'm picking Islam Makhachev to win this fight”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Islam Makhachev VALUE “there's no way of picking NOT_IN_ROSTER_3 here at 8700 we we were trying to guess before the show what is the ownership out even GNA be could it be as low as five to 10% like so stuff we've never seen before in the main event fighter it's it's it's it's potentially uh that way and I I don't see how you it can't be I think M uh I think Islam Makhachev has got to be the play here” $1.07
MD mdminds picks Islam Makhachev VALUE
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Islam Makhachev “I'm thinking Islam Makhachev submission under two and a half rounds”
DR DRYWALL picks Islam Makhachev VALUE “I have Islam Makhachev knocks him out sadly”
DR DRYWALL picks Renato Moicano VALUE “I think that Renato Moicano gets the decision”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Islam Makhachev VALUE “taking the fight to Islam Makhachev inside the distance is the BET”
RR Ring Rivalry picks Islam Makhachev VALUE
FF Fight Game Fame picks Islam Makhachev “realistically I'm 100% for sure taking Islam Makhachev Makhachev in this fight”
HP High Low Sports Podcast picks Islam Makhachev “we're taking Islam Makhachev Islam Makhachev to win this one”
P2 Picks with the Geek 2 picks Renato Moicano “my official pick is fanfueled optimism for Renato Moicano Renato Moicano to shock the world” $7.80
P2 Picks with the Geek 2 picks Islam Makhachev “this is Islam's fight to lose he's too well-rounded too disciplined and too Relentless unless Renato Moicano has some secret dagestani Kryptonite it's hard to see him pulling this off” $1.08
Recent form last five, most recent first
Makhachev27-1
W Maddalena Decision · R5 Nov '25
W Moicano Submission · R1 Jan '25
W Poirier Submission · R5 Jun '24
W Volkanovski KO/TKO · R1 Oct '23
W Volkanovski Decision · R5 Feb '23
Moicano20-7-1
W Duncan Submission · R2 Apr '26
L Dariush Decision · R3 Jun '25
L Makhachev Submission · R1 Jan '25
W Denis KO/TKO · R2 Sep '24
W Turner KO/TKO · R2 Apr '24