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UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
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IM RM Makhachev vs MoicanoMain Card · Lightweight MD UN Dvalishvili vs NurmagomedovMain Card · Bantamweight JP JH Procházka vs HillMain Card · Light Heavyweight JA SS Almeida vs SpivacMain Card · Heavyweight RR KH Ridder vs HollandMain Card · Middleweight RB PT Barcelos vs TalbottPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AB ZR Bekoev vs ReesePreliminary Card · Middleweight BG BE Guskov vs ElekanaPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight GD CF Dawson vs FerreiraPreliminary Card · Lightweight AP KR Pérez vs RosaEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight MG RN Gafurov vs NakamuraEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight BS RT Sopaj vs TurciosEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight TU CC Ulanbekov vs CarpenterEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
BEST PRICE We back Carpenter over Ulanbekov · Flyweight Our fair value$3.20 Coolbet pays above fair $3.90
Where to back Carpenter best price · region · EV vs fair $3.20
US Bovada $3.70 +16%
UK Grosvenor $3.50 +9%
EU Coolbet $3.90 +22%
AU PlayUp $3.65 +14%
Consensus35 picks · conf 58/99
Ulanbekov 20
15 Carpenter
bJMTMG pick Ulanbekov
How it endsmethod calls · Carpenter · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $25.60
Submission 1 $25.60
Decision 6 $4.27
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Ulanbekov 15-2 VS 8-2 Carpenter
5'7" height 5'6"
126 lb weight 126 lb
70" reach 66"
34 age 30
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.2 strikes landed / min 4.8
45% striking accuracy 62%
3.3 strikes absorbed / min 4.0
51% striking defence 49%
3.7 takedowns / 15 min 1.3
46% takedown accuracy 31%
61% takedown defence 50%
2.1 submissions / 15 min 1.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market31% vs 26%
Consensus15 of 35 analysts
Sharpest angleCarpenter by Decision — 6 of 8 method calls
Recommendation Back Carpenter @ $3.90 · fair $3.20 +22% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CC Combat Sports Central picks Tagir Ulanbekov “my pick Tagir Ulanbekov”
CC Combat Sports Central picks Tagir Ulanbekov “I lean Tagir Ulanbekov pick Tagir Ulanbekov so going over my Tagir Ulanbekov over Clayton Carpenter”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Clayton Carpenter VALUE “I'm going to go CL Clayton Carpenter” $3.55
MD mdminds picks Clayton Carpenter VALUE “I'd like to see what Clayton Carpenter does”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Tagir Ulanbekov “mainly because of that I'm going to go with Tagir Ulanbekov” $1.31
BA babysharpMMA🦈 picks Clayton Carpenter VALUE “Clayton Carpenter at plus 260 74% of the handle” $3.60
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Clayton Carpenter “give me Clayton Carpenter Carpenter for my pck”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Tagir Ulanbekov “I can't pick Clayton Carpenter just because the crap that he has fought... I'm going Tagir Ulanbekov”
DR DRYWALL picks Clayton Carpenter VALUE “I am going to NOT_IN_ROSTER_36 Ulan NOT_IN_ROSTER_38 by decision”
TL THE MMA LAB picks Clayton Carpenter “that's going to be Landslide Clayton Carpenter for sure”
JG Joe Giannetti picks Clayton Carpenter “Tagir Ulanbekov is a minus 305 favorite”
JG Joe Giannetti picks Tagir Ulanbekov VALUE “I'm going to put him in there he's dropping to 298” $1.33
Recent form last five, most recent first
Ulanbekov15-2
L Horiguchi Submission · R3 Nov '25
W Maksum Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Carpenter Decision · R3 Jan '25
W Durden Submission · R2 Dec '23
W Maness Submission · R1 Nov '22
Carpenter8-2
L Ochoa Decision · R3 May '26
L Filho Submission · R1 Oct '25
L Ulanbekov Decision · R3 Jan '25
W Rocha Submission · R2 Oct '24
W Ronderos Submission · R1 Feb '23