Choose a fight to analyse
NI
IA
Imavov vs AdesanyaMain Card · Middleweight
MP
SM
Page vs MagomedovMain Card · Middleweight
SP
JR
Pavlovich vs RozenstruikMain Card · Heavyweight
VO
SN
Oliveira vs NurmagomedovMain Card · Bantamweight
FZ
MD
Ziam vs DavisMain Card · Lightweight
MN
KO
Naimov vs OfliPreliminary Card · Featherweight
SG
TP
Gaziev vs PetersenPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
TM
DH
McKinney vs HadžovićPreliminary Card · Lightweight
JJ
MS
Jasudavicius vs SilvaPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BG
LA
Grad vs AlexanderPreliminary Card · Catchweight
HA
JP
Abdelwahab vs PoguesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
IA
Imavov vs AdesanyaMain Card · Middleweight
MP
SM
Page vs MagomedovMain Card · Middleweight
SP
JR
Pavlovich vs RozenstruikMain Card · Heavyweight
VO
SN
Oliveira vs NurmagomedovMain Card · Bantamweight
FZ
MD
Ziam vs DavisMain Card · Lightweight
MN
KO
Naimov vs OfliPreliminary Card · Featherweight
SG
TP
Gaziev vs PetersenPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
TM
DH
McKinney vs HadžovićPreliminary Card · Lightweight
JJ
MS
Jasudavicius vs SilvaPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BG
LA
Grad vs AlexanderPreliminary Card · Catchweight
HA
JP
Abdelwahab vs PoguesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Oliveira
over Nurmagomedov · Bantamweight
Our fair value$2.24
pays above fair
$2.58
Best prices · Oliveira
BetUS · US
$2.50
Virgin Bet · UK
$2.33
Pinnacle · EU
$2.58
SportsBet · AU
$2.37
Where to back Oliveira
best price · region · EV vs fair $2.24
US
BetUS
$2.50
+12%
BetUS
$2.50
+12%
UK
Virgin Bet
$2.33
+4%
Virgin Bet
$2.33
+4%
EU
Pinnacle
$2.58
+15%
Pinnacle
$2.58
+15%
AU
SportsBet
$2.37
+6%
SportsBet
$2.37
+6%
How it endsmethod calls · Oliveira · crowd line
KO/TKO
11
$6.10
Submission
3
$22.38
Decision
15
$4.48
None
1
$67.13
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Oliveira 23-4
VS
18-5 Nurmagomedov
5'9"
height
5'8"
145 lb
weight
136 lb
70"
reach
70"
30
age
34
Switch
stance
Orthodox
5.9
strikes landed / min
3.5
43%
striking accuracy
47%
2.9
strikes absorbed / min
2.1
53%
striking defence
57%
1.4
takedowns / 15 min
1.0
60%
takedown accuracy
16%
68%
takedown defence
66%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
1.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market45% vs 39%
Consensus42 of 74 analysts
Sharpest angleOliveira by Decision — 15 of 30 method calls
Recommendation
Back Oliveira @ $2.58 · fair $2.24
+15% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MJ
MMA JOEY picks Vinicius Oliveira
“venicius alera wins via decision”
MMA JOEY picks Vinicius Oliveira
“venicius alera wins via decision”
US
Uselyis picks Said Nurmagomedov VALUE
“give me n off by points at a plus 135 let me know what you guys think I think nof should be able to win this fight by unanimous decision it's going to be one of those fights where KH Oley is going to be able to perform way better than he did against Myron Santos”
$2.35
Uselyis picks Said Nurmagomedov VALUE
“give me n off by points at a plus 135 let me know what you guys think I think nof should be able to win this fight by unanimous decision it's going to be one of those fights where KH Oley is going to be able to perform way better than he did against Myron Santos”
$2.35
BY
ByoneWorld picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE
“Said Nurmagomedov versus Vinicius Oliveira”
ByoneWorld picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE
“Said Nurmagomedov versus Vinicius Oliveira”
NO
NotSoLethal picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE
“we're going to go Terence mckin I think Terrance McKinney chinSaid Nurmagomedov him I'm going to go Terrance McKinney by TKO”
NotSoLethal picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE
“we're going to go Terence mckin I think Terrance McKinney chinSaid Nurmagomedov him I'm going to go Terrance McKinney by TKO”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE
“venicius Vinicius Oliveira is destined to outd doog Said Nurmagomedov”
$2.30
MMA EXPERTS picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE
“venicius Vinicius Oliveira is destined to outd doog Said Nurmagomedov”
$2.30
LE
LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Said Nurmagomedov VALUE
“siento que esit magomedov se le van a a dar las cosas”
$1.06
LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Said Nurmagomedov VALUE
“siento que esit magomedov se le van a a dar las cosas”
$1.06
NC
Nick Cieslak picks Vinicius Oliveira
“I'm going to go Sayer magedov but I really like what I'm seeing as of Lately from venicius Olivera”
Nick Cieslak picks Vinicius Oliveira
“I'm going to go Sayer magedov but I really like what I'm seeing as of Lately from venicius Olivera”
CU
Combat Sports UK picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE
“I think Vinicius Oliveira is coming to this with such a great bit of momentum for Sharabutdin Magomedov like it's a fight he needs to prove himself in to be honest”
Combat Sports UK picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE
“I think Vinicius Oliveira is coming to this with such a great bit of momentum for Sharabutdin Magomedov like it's a fight he needs to prove himself in to be honest”
CM
Crashout MMA picks Vinicius Oliveira
“I'm gonna say Vinicius Oliveira is gonna win”
Crashout MMA picks Vinicius Oliveira
“I'm gonna say Vinicius Oliveira is gonna win”
UP
UFC Bro Picks picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE
“I got two units on Vinicius Oliveira at plus 58 I like Vinicius Oliveira a lot”
$1.58
UFC Bro Picks picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE
“I got two units on Vinicius Oliveira at plus 58 I like Vinicius Oliveira a lot”
$1.58
HT
HTMMA picks Vinicius Oliveira
“I'm going to be going with venius Oliva to get the job done and ... that is why I've got vicius Oliva by either third round TKO or unanimous decision against s nurmagamedov”
$1.74
HTMMA picks Vinicius Oliveira
“I'm going to be going with venius Oliva to get the job done and ... that is why I've got vicius Oliva by either third round TKO or unanimous decision against s nurmagamedov”
$1.74
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Oliveira23-4
W
Fili
Jun '26
L
Bautista
Feb '26
W
Phillips
Jul '25
W
Nurmagomedov
Feb '25
W
Simón
Jun '24
Nurmagomedov18-5
L
Mitchell
Jul '25
L
Oliveira
Feb '25
W
Gafurov
Oct '23
L
Martinez
Mar '23
W
Kakhramonov
Dec '22