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McKinney vs HadžovićPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Grad vs AlexanderPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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Abdelwahab vs PoguesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
IA
Imavov vs AdesanyaMain Card · Middleweight
MP
SM
Page vs MagomedovMain Card · Middleweight
SP
JR
Pavlovich vs RozenstruikMain Card · Heavyweight
VO
SN
Oliveira vs NurmagomedovMain Card · Bantamweight
FZ
MD
Ziam vs DavisMain Card · Lightweight
MN
KO
Naimov vs OfliPreliminary Card · Featherweight
SG
TP
Gaziev vs PetersenPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
TM
DH
McKinney vs HadžovićPreliminary Card · Lightweight
JJ
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Jasudavicius vs SilvaPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
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Grad vs AlexanderPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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Abdelwahab vs PoguesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Grad
over Alexander · Catchweight
Our fair value$1.92
pays above fair
$2.10
Best prices · Grad
ESPN BET · US
$2.10
Grosvenor · UK
$2.05
Pinnacle · EU
$2.10
TABtouch · AU
$2.05
Where to back Grad
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.92
US
EB
ESPN BET
$2.10
+10%
UK
Grosvenor
$2.05
+7%
Grosvenor
$2.05
+7%
EU
Pinnacle
$2.10
+10%
Pinnacle
$2.10
+10%
AU
TABtouch
$2.05
+7%
TABtouch
$2.05
+7%
How it endsmethod calls · Grad · crowd line
KO/TKO
13
$4.71
Submission
2
$30.65
Decision
16
$3.83
None
1
$61.29
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Grad 14-2
VS
8-4 Alexander
5'8"
height
5'11"
146 lb
weight
145 lb
70"
reach
73"
30
age
30
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
6.3
strikes landed / min
5.2
47%
striking accuracy
55%
10.2
strikes absorbed / min
1.8
49%
striking defence
71%
2.8
takedowns / 15 min
0.0
42%
takedown accuracy
0%
0%
takedown defence
57%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market52% vs 48%
Consensus48 of 76 analysts
Sharpest angleGrad by Decision — 16 of 32 method calls
Recommendation
Back Grad @ $2.10 · fair $1.92
+10% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MJ
MMA JOEY picks Bogdan Grad
“Bogdan grod gets it done via second round full mount ground up”
MMA JOEY picks Bogdan Grad
“Bogdan grod gets it done via second round full mount ground up”
DR
DRYWALL picks Lucas Alexander VALUE
“Lucas Alexander by the way winning by decision”
DRYWALL picks Lucas Alexander VALUE
“Lucas Alexander by the way winning by decision”
KM
Knuckles MMA picks Lucas Alexander VALUE
“I have Lucas Alexander winning”
Knuckles MMA picks Lucas Alexander VALUE
“I have Lucas Alexander winning”
WS
We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring picks Bogdan Grad VALUE
“placed a two-unit bet coming back it goes down to even money on Bogan grad I'm seeing 15 percentage points of value”
$1.83
We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring picks Bogdan Grad VALUE
“placed a two-unit bet coming back it goes down to even money on Bogan grad I'm seeing 15 percentage points of value”
$1.83
US
Uselyis picks Bogdan Grad VALUE
“I'm going to be going my boy Bogdan Grad obviously we know the height reach the length everything is on Lucas Alexander just look at him he looks like the taller fighter he looks like he's in a different weight class but with that being said guys I think he should be able to slow down this this pace and win by unanimous decision”
$1.96
Uselyis picks Bogdan Grad VALUE
“I'm going to be going my boy Bogdan Grad obviously we know the height reach the length everything is on Lucas Alexander just look at him he looks like the taller fighter he looks like he's in a different weight class but with that being said guys I think he should be able to slow down this this pace and win by unanimous decision”
$1.96
NO
NoJonesMMA picks Lucas Alexander
“I'm taking Lucas Alexander I've seen Clips uh highlights all that but we're we're here for the Vibes we're not here for the analytics down here in the the early prelims come on now”
NoJonesMMA picks Lucas Alexander
“I'm taking Lucas Alexander I've seen Clips uh highlights all that but we're we're here for the Vibes we're not here for the analytics down here in the the early prelims come on now”
BM
Brick MMA picks Bogdan Grad
“I think I'm going with Bogdan Grad just off the buzz”
Brick MMA picks Bogdan Grad
“I think I'm going with Bogdan Grad just off the buzz”
KU
Kunath picks Bogdan Grad VALUE
“I like Bogdan Grad to win this fight”
Kunath picks Bogdan Grad VALUE
“I like Bogdan Grad to win this fight”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Lucas Alexander VALUE
“I'm going to pick Lucas Alexander Lucas Alexander Alexander though”
MMA EXPERTS picks Lucas Alexander VALUE
“I'm going to pick Lucas Alexander Lucas Alexander Alexander though”
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Bogdan Grad VALUE
“I'd say anywhere about plus 120 or so I would take Nassourdine Imavov I like the decision angle”
$2.05
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Bogdan Grad VALUE
“I'd say anywhere about plus 120 or so I would take Nassourdine Imavov I like the decision angle”
$2.05
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Lucas Alexander VALUE
“we're on opposite sides of that one there I think I may even prefer Lucas Alexander by TKO plus 290”
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Lucas Alexander VALUE
“we're on opposite sides of that one there I think I may even prefer Lucas Alexander by TKO plus 290”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Grad14-2
L
Riley
Nov '25
L
Naimov
Jun '25
W
Alexander
Feb '25
Alexander8-4
L
Grad
Feb '25
L
Saragih
Nov '23
W
Peterson
Mar '23
L
Brito
Oct '22