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Jacoby vs PetrinoMain Card · Light Heavyweight
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Marcos vs YañezMain Card · Bantamweight
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Johnson vs AzaitarPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Buckley vs CovingtonMain Card · Welterweight
CS
BQ
Swanson vs QuarantilloMain Card · Featherweight
MK
BS
Kape vs SilvaMain Card · Flyweight
DJ
VP
Jacoby vs PetrinoMain Card · Light Heavyweight
DM
AY
Marcos vs YañezMain Card · Bantamweight
NS
TT
Stirling vs TokkosMain Card · Light Heavyweight
MJ
OA
Johnson vs AzaitarPreliminary Card · Lightweight
JÁ
DK
Álvarez vs KlosePreliminary Card · Lightweight
SW
FP
Woodson vs PadillaPreliminary Card · Featherweight
FL
MJ
Lima vs JohnsPreliminary Card · Featherweight
MM
JH
Maverick vs HorthPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
DG
RT
Grant vs TaverasPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
PR
JK
Rodríguez vs KnutssonPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Johnson
over Azaitar · Lightweight
Our fair value$1.46
Betsson
pays above fair
$1.48
Best prices · Johnson
FanDuel · US
$1.45
LiveScore Bet · UK
$1.44
Betsson · EU
$1.48
PointsBet (AU) · AU
$1.47
Where to back Johnson
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.46
US
FanDuel
$1.45
-0%
FanDuel
$1.45
-0%
UK
LiveScore Bet
$1.44
-1%
LiveScore Bet
$1.44
-1%
EU
BET
Betsson
$1.48
+2%
AU
PointsBet (AU)
$1.47
+1%
PointsBet (AU)
$1.47
+1%
How it endsmethod calls · Johnson · crowd line
KO/TKO
14
$2.29
Decision
8
$4.01
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Johnson 0-0
VS
13-2 Azaitar
5'10"
height
5'8"
156 lb
weight
156 lb
74"
reach
71"
40
age
36
Southpaw
stance
Switch
4.3
strikes landed / min
5.7
39%
striking accuracy
51%
3.8
strikes absorbed / min
5.0
57%
striking defence
48%
0.6
takedowns / 15 min
0.0
41%
takedown accuracy
0%
81%
takedown defence
100%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market69% vs 68%
Consensus27 of 38 analysts
Sharpest angleJohnson by KO/TKO — 14 of 22 method calls
Recommendation
Back Johnson @ $1.48 · fair $1.46
+2% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Michael Johnson VALUE
“I like Michael Johnson been in the game Michael Johnson by the exact same reason thing about Michael Johnson is once he with Michael Johnson yeah man like I looking forward to Michael Johnson”
The Rambling Dad picks Michael Johnson VALUE
“I like Michael Johnson been in the game Michael Johnson by the exact same reason thing about Michael Johnson is once he with Michael Johnson yeah man like I looking forward to Michael Johnson”
TC
The "CASUAL" Cam picks Michael Johnson VALUE
“so um I did pick adman aitar to win here”
The "CASUAL" Cam picks Michael Johnson VALUE
“so um I did pick adman aitar to win here”
MP
MMA Pros Pick picks Michael Johnson VALUE
“I see Michael Johnson pulling out the decision win”
MMA Pros Pick picks Michael Johnson VALUE
“I see Michael Johnson pulling out the decision win”
MM
MMAJesus420 picks Ottman Azaitar
“give me the heavy Underdog let's go Michael Johnson verse Ottman Azaitar”
MMAJesus420 picks Ottman Azaitar
“give me the heavy Underdog let's go Michael Johnson verse Ottman Azaitar”
MM
MMAJesus420 picks Michael Johnson VALUE
“give me the heavy Underdog let's go Michael Johnson verse Ottman Azaitar another fight where I see a finish I I would be surprised if this goes to decision really I would uh minus 185 for Johnson I like the number I think it's a good solid number for a parlay piece if you follow me on Instagram I already posted a free parlay with the St Louis boys and the St Louis boys together is like plus 230 something like that and I think that's really solid really solid play most people think that he's going to get the job done via KO well 50% says KO n next one should be an easy KO for Navajo Stirling um Tuco Tokkos hasn't shown much you know not a great chin uh minus 500 minus 500 is probably right probably could get a good line on the KO or ko1 ko2 don't mind that that reach is crazy guys I mean he's almost got uh seven six inches of reach and they're both the same height I don't think they're both same height I think two Coast is a little shorter I might be wrong there we're on the main card here another Banger I feel like this is going to go to decision because both these guys are really tough I'm just not sold on Yannis like Giannis fought like an idiot versus Rob font he went in there and showed zero IQ both of these fights really and uh that leaves a really bad taste in my mouth so I I gotta go Daniel Marcos I think Daniel Marcos is better everywhere all right guys we got a few more fights hit that like button if you already haven't and if you need my other picks hit me up on Instagram or X that works this one so like I was thinking my guts kind of telling me to switch to Dustin Jobe but H after seeing face offs I'm kind of wanting to stay with my pick of Vitor Petrino you know the young lion fighting uh eight years older man nine years nine years older that's just you know a very bad statistic in in uh UFC right now so yeah I'm gonna stay with Vitor Petrino Manel Kape Manel Kape should be an easy part leg should be should be right cop he didn't show up at all against moev MV I thought he won that fight it was a close fight but it was a horrible fight from both of them they both didn't do [__] they just like stood and watched each other and it should have been a draw I mean it was a horrible fight um Bruno Gustavo da Silva isn't bad but you know he was getting absolutely beat easy before he knocked out Cody Duran that was I think in the second or third round came back win comeback win and you know it was it was an impressive comeback but he was getting beat up um I just feel like he doesn't fight very much he's a little bit older I think manell cop should be the side um I maybe just play decision in that fight honestly So Co main here man [__] this card is great really it's really really stacked we got a lot of top 10 top 10 here moving on up Cub Swanson vers Billy Q so I've got like four dogs already and I'm going with another one plus 135 Cub Swanson um I think Cub got blatantly robbed in his last fight absolutely horrible uh one of one of the worst decisions in 2024 um we we're seeing that a lot guys we're seeing a lot of robbery so just watch out for that when you're when you're thinking about close fights or or betting you might just want to take decisions or or nonf finishes or finishes no distance you know a lot of these fires are getting robbed and we we seen it last week maybe two or three robberies uh last Saturday it happens every week guys it is what it is it's a part of the game um I I think we need better judges personally but yeah I'm gonna go with Cub man he showed a lot in his last fight against a tough opponent and Andre Philly I think Billy Quarantillo his chin is some somewhat suspect at this point yeah he beat Damon Jackson okay that was nice but got really easily knocked out by Edson Barbosa yes it was the knee it was powerful but he went right into it he he telegraphed it and Edson that's what he does you know you don't do that to Edson like that very low IQ for me so I gotta go Cub man and the main event here we go uh younger fresher fight younger fresher fighter here guys um minus 250 easy parlay leg uh should be by KO should be by KO and I would love to see it uh Joaquin Buckley is on a Resurgence I this is one of my top 10 favorite Fighters right now uh Colby Covington is you know [__] he's not good at all especially as of late I mean he's just done nothing almost got knocked out by Jorge that fight was horrible his kamaro fights were good you know um but yeah guys uh hope you enjoyed the picks I think it should be a fun easy card to make some money on um looking forward to it guys and if you haven't yet give me a follow on all platforms you know I would greatly appreciate it guys uh Merry Christmas and a happy New Year peace”
$3.65
MMAJesus420 picks Michael Johnson VALUE
“give me the heavy Underdog let's go Michael Johnson verse Ottman Azaitar another fight where I see a finish I I would be surprised if this goes to decision really I would uh minus 185 for Johnson I like the number I think it's a good solid number for a parlay piece if you follow me on Instagram I already posted a free parlay with the St Louis boys and the St Louis boys together is like plus 230 something like that and I think that's really solid really solid play most people think that he's going to get the job done via KO well 50% says KO n next one should be an easy KO for Navajo Stirling um Tuco Tokkos hasn't shown much you know not a great chin uh minus 500 minus 500 is probably right probably could get a good line on the KO or ko1 ko2 don't mind that that reach is crazy guys I mean he's almost got uh seven six inches of reach and they're both the same height I don't think they're both same height I think two Coast is a little shorter I might be wrong there we're on the main card here another Banger I feel like this is going to go to decision because both these guys are really tough I'm just not sold on Yannis like Giannis fought like an idiot versus Rob font he went in there and showed zero IQ both of these fights really and uh that leaves a really bad taste in my mouth so I I gotta go Daniel Marcos I think Daniel Marcos is better everywhere all right guys we got a few more fights hit that like button if you already haven't and if you need my other picks hit me up on Instagram or X that works this one so like I was thinking my guts kind of telling me to switch to Dustin Jobe but H after seeing face offs I'm kind of wanting to stay with my pick of Vitor Petrino you know the young lion fighting uh eight years older man nine years nine years older that's just you know a very bad statistic in in uh UFC right now so yeah I'm gonna stay with Vitor Petrino Manel Kape Manel Kape should be an easy part leg should be should be right cop he didn't show up at all against moev MV I thought he won that fight it was a close fight but it was a horrible fight from both of them they both didn't do [__] they just like stood and watched each other and it should have been a draw I mean it was a horrible fight um Bruno Gustavo da Silva isn't bad but you know he was getting absolutely beat easy before he knocked out Cody Duran that was I think in the second or third round came back win comeback win and you know it was it was an impressive comeback but he was getting beat up um I just feel like he doesn't fight very much he's a little bit older I think manell cop should be the side um I maybe just play decision in that fight honestly So Co main here man [__] this card is great really it's really really stacked we got a lot of top 10 top 10 here moving on up Cub Swanson vers Billy Q so I've got like four dogs already and I'm going with another one plus 135 Cub Swanson um I think Cub got blatantly robbed in his last fight absolutely horrible uh one of one of the worst decisions in 2024 um we we're seeing that a lot guys we're seeing a lot of robbery so just watch out for that when you're when you're thinking about close fights or or betting you might just want to take decisions or or nonf finishes or finishes no distance you know a lot of these fires are getting robbed and we we seen it last week maybe two or three robberies uh last Saturday it happens every week guys it is what it is it's a part of the game um I I think we need better judges personally but yeah I'm gonna go with Cub man he showed a lot in his last fight against a tough opponent and Andre Philly I think Billy Quarantillo his chin is some somewhat suspect at this point yeah he beat Damon Jackson okay that was nice but got really easily knocked out by Edson Barbosa yes it was the knee it was powerful but he went right into it he he telegraphed it and Edson that's what he does you know you don't do that to Edson like that very low IQ for me so I gotta go Cub man and the main event here we go uh younger fresher fight younger fresher fighter here guys um minus 250 easy parlay leg uh should be by KO should be by KO and I would love to see it uh Joaquin Buckley is on a Resurgence I this is one of my top 10 favorite Fighters right now uh Colby Covington is you know [__] he's not good at all especially as of late I mean he's just done nothing almost got knocked out by Jorge that fight was horrible his kamaro fights were good you know um but yeah guys uh hope you enjoyed the picks I think it should be a fun easy card to make some money on um looking forward to it guys and if you haven't yet give me a follow on all platforms you know I would greatly appreciate it guys uh Merry Christmas and a happy New Year peace”
$3.65
CM
Coty MMA picks Ottman Azaitar VALUE
“I'm going to end up with some Ottman Azaitar”
Coty MMA picks Ottman Azaitar VALUE
“I'm going to end up with some Ottman Azaitar”
MM
Magnusisp MMA picks Michael Johnson
“Michael Johnson's going to win probably by decision”
Magnusisp MMA picks Michael Johnson
“Michael Johnson's going to win probably by decision”
LE
Lepresident picks Ottman Azaitar VALUE
“I'm going to bet on the younger fighter... I'm betting on him being a bit more conditioned catching Michael Johnson and finishing him”
Lepresident picks Ottman Azaitar VALUE
“I'm going to bet on the younger fighter... I'm betting on him being a bit more conditioned catching Michael Johnson and finishing him”
TP
Tony's Picks picks Michael Johnson
“give me Michael Johnson to win and then just give me the fight not going the distance”
Tony's Picks picks Michael Johnson
“give me Michael Johnson to win and then just give me the fight not going the distance”
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Michael Johnson
“my subscribers and I went with Michael Johnson by the way”
$1.54
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Michael Johnson
“my subscribers and I went with Michael Johnson by the way”
$1.54
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Michael Johnson
“Michael Johnson 8,700 least trustworthy fighter in UFC history but this is the fight he really shouldn't lose um I think he's much much much better but yeah it's it's sketchy and it's sketchy with every single Michael Johnson fight but skill for skill he's a much better fighter here the chin worries me the age worries me everything worries me about Michael Johnson but um if he's winning this fight I think it could be by knockout or like a dominant decision”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Michael Johnson
“Michael Johnson 8,700 least trustworthy fighter in UFC history but this is the fight he really shouldn't lose um I think he's much much much better but yeah it's it's sketchy and it's sketchy with every single Michael Johnson fight but skill for skill he's a much better fighter here the chin worries me the age worries me everything worries me about Michael Johnson but um if he's winning this fight I think it could be by knockout or like a dominant decision”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Johnson0-0
L
Dober
Mar '26
W
Zellhuber
Jul '25
W
Azaitar
Dec '24
W
Flowers
Feb '24
L
Ferreira
May '23
Azaitar13-2
L
Johnson
Dec '24
L
Prado
Jul '23
L
Frevola
Nov '22
W
Worthy
Sep '20
W
Packalén
Sep '19