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BEST PRICE We back Lima over Johns · Featherweight Our fair value$1.40 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.43
Where to back Lima best price · region · EV vs fair $1.40
US DraftKings $1.42 +2%
UK Paddy Power $1.40 +0%
EU Pinnacle $1.43 +2%
AU Neds $1.42 +2%
Consensus39 picks · conf 61/99
Lima 29
10 Johns
bBUETM pick Lima
How it endsmethod calls · Lima · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $8.39
Submission 7 $3.60
Decision 8 $3.15
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Lima 13-1 VS 15-2 Johns
5'6" height 5'7"
135 lb weight 136 lb
68" reach 68"
28 age 32
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.3 strikes landed / min 3.3
52% striking accuracy 47%
2.7 strikes absorbed / min 2.5
64% striking defence 69%
1.3 takedowns / 15 min 1.0
50% takedown accuracy 20%
80% takedown defence 85%
1.3 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market71% vs 70%
Consensus29 of 39 analysts
Sharpest angleLima by Decision — 8 of 18 method calls
Recommendation Back Lima @ $1.43 · fair $1.40 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Miles Johns “I like Miles Johns John's the over two and a half is - 270 I think they expect him to win a round maybe even win the fight”
MM MMAJesus420 picks Miles Johns VALUE “give me Choo man the underdog I think the odds are disrespectful I'm taking miles miles John's man”
CM Coty MMA picks Miles Johns VALUE “I like Miles Johns and I bet John's plus 230”
MM Magnusisp MMA picks Felipe Lima “I think Felipe Lima is going to get it done this time as well I think he's probably going to get this done probably by a submission”
MB MMA Badger picks Felipe Lima “give me Felipe Lima give me Felipe Lima to win” $2.43
LE Lepresident picks Miles Johns VALUE “Miles Johnss win this”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Felipe Lima “my subscribers are went with Felipe Lima” $1.42
UR UFC RAIZ picks Felipe Lima VALUE “acredito que ele é um Franco Favorito nessa nessa nessa aposta atual”
HB Half The Battle picks Felipe Lima “I'll go Sterling by knockout” $1.12
MF Matt’Or Fact picks Felipe Lima “I got Felipe Lima to go out there and get the win”
MA MMA Attic picks Felipe Lima VALUE “the model is very strong on him as well”
WP We Want Picks picks Miles Johns “I actually think Miles JNS can win this fight”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Lima13-1
L Talbott Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Johns Decision · R3 Dec '24
W Naimov Submission · R3 Jun '24
Johns15-2
L Marcos Submission · R2 Nov '25
L Matsumoto Decision · R3 Aug '25
L Lima Decision · R3 Dec '24
W Andrade Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Gibson Decision · R3 Mar '24