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UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley
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BEST PRICE We back Woodson over Padilla · Featherweight Our fair value$1.61 Caesars pays above fair $1.71
Where to back Woodson best price · region · EV vs fair $1.61
US Caesars $1.71 +6%
UK Betway $1.67 +4%
EU Pinnacle $1.68 +4%
AU PlayUp $1.67 +4%
Consensus47 picks · conf 67/99
Woodson 32
15 Padilla
bCMTTM pick Woodson
How it endsmethod calls · Woodson · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $20.94
Decision 11 $1.90
None 1 $20.94
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Woodson 12-1-1 VS 16-5 Padilla
6'2" height 6'1"
146 lb weight 145 lb
78" reach 76"
34 age 29
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.6 strikes landed / min 6.5
46% striking accuracy 42%
4.2 strikes absorbed / min 5.2
58% striking defence 53%
0.7 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
62% takedown accuracy 0%
84% takedown defence 100%
0.4 submissions / 15 min 0.8
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market62% vs 58%
Consensus32 of 47 analysts
Sharpest angleWoodson by Decision — 11 of 13 method calls
Recommendation Back Woodson @ $1.71 · fair $1.61 +6% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Sean Woodson “I'm on Fernando NOT_IN_ROSTER_13 here... I like Shawn Sean Woodson”
TA TakeDownTalks picks Fernando Padilla VALUE “the pick is Fernando Padilla by submission round two”
BS B ALL N Sports picks Fernando Padilla “Fernando Padilla money line plus 132” $2.32
MP MMA Pros Pick picks Sean Woodson VALUE “I think that Sean Woodson is more he's a he's more of a disciplined guy he's the guy that will do whatever it takes to win the fight”
MM MMAJesus420 picks Sean Woodson “gotta go with Sean Woodson the sniper man uh St Louis Missouri stand up”
CM Coty MMA picks Sean Woodson VALUE “I think Woodson wins a decision”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Sean Woodson “yo me iría con Sean Woodson” $1.60
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Fernando Padilla “Pero cuidado con el jitsu de Fernando Padilla”
SV Sports Vlog picks Fernando Padilla “we're going with Fernando Padilla”
MB MMA Badger picks Sean Woodson “if I had to pick someone I'll pick Sean Woodson just because he has shown to be able to deliver so give me Woodson”
TP Tony's Picks picks Sean Woodson “my pick's going to be uh Shawn Woodson I think he can win by decision”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Sean Woodson “my subscribers and I went with Sean Woodson” $1.57
Recent form last five, most recent first
Woodson12-1-1
L Ige KO/TKO · R3 Apr '25
W Padilla KO/TKO · R1 Dec '24
W Caceres Decision · R3 May '24
W Jourdain Decision · R3 Jan '24
W Buzukja Decision · R3 Aug '23
Padilla16-5
L Woodson KO/TKO · R1 Dec '24
W Pajuelo Submission · R1 Mar '24
L Nelson Decision · R3 Sep '23
W Erosa KO/TKO · R1 Apr '23