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Kara-France vs ErcegMain Card · Flyweight
DH
MG
Hooker vs GamrotMain Card · Lightweight
JR
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Rozenstruik vs TuivasaMain Card · Heavyweight
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Prates vs JingliangMain Card · Welterweight
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JT
Walker vs TafaPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
RR
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Ramos vs CulibaoPreliminary Card · Featherweight
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O'Neill vs SantosPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
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Nolan vs ReyesEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Nolan v Reyes
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Nolan 10-1
VS
13-5 Reyes
6'3"
height
5'11"
155 lb
weight
156 lb
73"
reach
73"
26
age
39
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
2.5
strikes landed / min
4.5
52%
striking accuracy
46%
2.4
strikes absorbed / min
6.9
59%
striking defence
48%
1.2
takedowns / 15 min
1.5
42%
takedown accuracy
28%
62%
takedown defence
0%
1.4
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
JA
JakeGerberMMA picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“I'm disappointed in what we saw I mean look Tom Nolan Tom Nolan Nolan's a very good fighter and I think that he put on a good showing”
JakeGerberMMA picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“I'm disappointed in what we saw I mean look Tom Nolan Tom Nolan Nolan's a very good fighter and I think that he put on a good showing”
MJ
MMA JOEY picks Tom Nolan
“Tom Nolan wins VI unanimous decision”
MMA JOEY picks Tom Nolan
“Tom Nolan wins VI unanimous decision”
LM
Leftlane MMA picks Tom Nolan
“I picked Valter Walker by the way”
Leftlane MMA picks Tom Nolan
“I picked Valter Walker by the way”
BM
Brando MMA picks Tom Nolan
“he did win the fight clearly but like dude it's a [__] layup it's Alex it's Alex Reyes dude”
Brando MMA picks Tom Nolan
“he did win the fight clearly but like dude it's a [__] layup it's Alex it's Alex Reyes dude”
RA
RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Tom Nolan
“knocked out by Alex Reyes I doubt it so winning his fight than Alex Reyes”
RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Tom Nolan
“knocked out by Alex Reyes I doubt it so winning his fight than Alex Reyes”
AM
Artem MMA picks Tom Nolan
“another one is also Tom Nolan he dominated Alex Reyes um don't get me wrong he did dominate the fight”
$1.08
Artem MMA picks Tom Nolan
“another one is also Tom Nolan he dominated Alex Reyes um don't get me wrong he did dominate the fight”
$1.08
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“I'm going to pick the biggest one because I think that's funnier”
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“I'm going to pick the biggest one because I think that's funnier”
KM
Keep it a Buck Media picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“I'm going to go with Tom Nolan by uh TKO here”
Keep it a Buck Media picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“I'm going to go with Tom Nolan by uh TKO here”
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Tom Nolan
“I'm still picking Tom Nolan but I don't like his odds”
$1.09
Capper Comparison Picks picks Tom Nolan
“I'm still picking Tom Nolan but I don't like his odds”
$1.09
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Alex Reyes VALUE
“I think Pereira is gonna lay him out brutally”
MMA EXPERTS picks Alex Reyes VALUE
“I think Pereira is gonna lay him out brutally”
RA
RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Tom Nolan
“you're not getting Tom Nolan in round against Alex Reyes”
RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Tom Nolan
“you're not getting Tom Nolan in round against Alex Reyes”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Nolan10-1
W
Ziam
Jun '26
W
Campbell
Sep '25
W
Borshchev
Feb '25
W
Reyes
Aug '24
W
Martinez
May '24
Reyes13-5
L
Nolan
Aug '24
L
Campbell
Sep '23
L
Perry
Sep '17