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UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Santos Aguilar v Nicoll Catchweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus26 picks · conf 50/99
Santos Aguilar 5
21 Nicoll
UCPCT pick Santos Aguilar
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Santos Aguilar 12-4 VS 8-2 Nicoll
5'4" height 5'5"
125 lb weight 126 lb
63" reach 65"
30 age 31
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.3 strikes landed / min 2.5
50% striking accuracy 60%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 4.3
48% striking defence 51%
3.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.8
29% takedown accuracy 41%
53% takedown defence 80%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Stewart Nicoll VALUE “I thought Stewart Nicoll was going to have a successful debut”
LM Leftlane MMA picks Stewart Nicoll VALUE “I didn't pick him obviously I picked nickel um but i' never seen nickel fight before I just saw undefeated guy from Eternal and I was like yeah he'll probably win”
BM Brando MMA picks Stewart Nicoll “I picked Stuart nickel uh and he got guillotined”
AM Artem MMA picks Jesús Santos Aguilar “I did think that jzu Gua who has been outg grappled multiple times in the UFC so far would have been a layout for him”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Stewart Nicoll VALUE “I went with um Stewart Nicoll” $1.44
TM The MMA-Holes picks Jesús Santos Aguilar “I still think Jesús Santos Aguilar is the one”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Stewart Nicoll “I'm picking Stewart Nicoll by decision officially” $1.47
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Jesús Santos Aguilar VALUE “I'm taking Jesús Santos Aguilar” $2.70
RA RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Stewart Nicoll “Stewart Nicoll inside the distance line I'm round Stewart Nicoll wins”
CC Combat Sports Central picks Stewart Nicoll “I really really like the Stewart Nicoll by submission at plus 450” $5.50
DR DRYWALL picks Stewart Nicoll “still rolling with the Stewart Nicoll submission in round one”
SP SportsLine picks Stewart Nicoll “the first fight of the night the curtain jerker as they call it Stewart Nicoll... this kid Stuart Stewart Nicoll is a grinder he's a Relentless wrestler... I'm going to Parlay him together”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Santos Aguilar12-4
L Mudaerji Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Gurule Decision · R3 Sep '25
L Estevam Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Nicoll Submission · R1 Aug '24
W Mendonça Decision · R3 Feb '24
Nicoll8-2
L Costa KO/TKO · R2 Apr '26
L Rocha Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Aguilar Submission · R1 Aug '24