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Morales vs MatthewsMain Card · Welterweight
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Hooper vs LeavittMain Card · Lightweight
PT
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Talbott vs AguirreMain Card · Bantamweight
AR
LP
Ribas vs PinheiroMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
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UM
Orolbai vs MedićMain Card · Welterweight
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Brito vs PearcePreliminary Card · Featherweight
JJ
CA
Johnson vs AnheligerPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
CD
DT
Duncan vs TiuliulinPreliminary Card · Middleweight
MP
CM
Parkin vs MachadoPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
JS
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Saragih vs AlexanderPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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LP
Pérez vs PudilováPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Allen v Craig
Middleweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Allen 26-7
VS
17-10-1 Craig
6'2"
height
6'3"
186 lb
weight
205 lb
75"
reach
76"
30
age
38
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
5.9
strikes landed / min
3.2
36%
striking accuracy
48%
3.5
strikes absorbed / min
4.7
53%
striking defence
52%
1.6
takedowns / 15 min
0.9
62%
takedown accuracy
60%
53%
takedown defence
80%
1.7
submissions / 15 min
0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Paul Craig VALUE
“Paul Craig is 3 to one”
The Rambling Dad picks Paul Craig VALUE
“Paul Craig is 3 to one”
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Paul Craig
“most likely Brendan Allen is going to lose this fight”
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Paul Craig
“most likely Brendan Allen is going to lose this fight”
ZP
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Brendan Allen
“Brendan Brendan Allen should win it Paul Paul Craig always live for that crazy submission”
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Brendan Allen
“Brendan Brendan Allen should win it Paul Paul Craig always live for that crazy submission”
DG
Diary of a Pro Gambler picks Brendan Allen
“for me this is a really bad stylistic match up for poor Paul Craig which makes this a very dead fight for betting because you know you can't can't bet Brendan Allen at these odds the odds are absolutely terrible there's no upside in betting him um but if you bet Paul Paul Craig outside of something very very unlikely and improbable happening I think you're just setting fire to your money”
Diary of a Pro Gambler picks Brendan Allen
“for me this is a really bad stylistic match up for poor Paul Craig which makes this a very dead fight for betting because you know you can't can't bet Brendan Allen at these odds the odds are absolutely terrible there's no upside in betting him um but if you bet Paul Paul Craig outside of something very very unlikely and improbable happening I think you're just setting fire to your money”
TP
The City Life Project picks Brendan Allen VALUE
“I'm going with Brendan Allen on this one minus 435”
$1.23
The City Life Project picks Brendan Allen VALUE
“I'm going with Brendan Allen on this one minus 435”
$1.23
HP
Hack Check Podcast picks Paul Craig
“I can see Paul Craig winning as well”
Hack Check Podcast picks Paul Craig
“I can see Paul Craig winning as well”
WP
We Want Picks picks Brendan Allen VALUE
“I see Brendan Allen stee rolling him I think Brendan Allen to be the better Striker I think Brendan Allen's goingon to be the better wrestler Paul Craigs gonna have the better Jiu-Jitsu but Brendan Allen's a black belt and he's not soft like Andre munes so I could see Brendan Allen coming in here working in the Striking taking down Paul Craig beating him up and either winning a decision with a ton of points or potentially finishing Paul Craig so I think Brendan Allen's worth that $9,400 and you have to choose between Brendan Allen or Michael Morales I'll take Brendan Allen with the extra rounds over Michael Morales for your lineup”
We Want Picks picks Brendan Allen VALUE
“I see Brendan Allen stee rolling him I think Brendan Allen to be the better Striker I think Brendan Allen's goingon to be the better wrestler Paul Craigs gonna have the better Jiu-Jitsu but Brendan Allen's a black belt and he's not soft like Andre munes so I could see Brendan Allen coming in here working in the Striking taking down Paul Craig beating him up and either winning a decision with a ton of points or potentially finishing Paul Craig so I think Brendan Allen's worth that $9,400 and you have to choose between Brendan Allen or Michael Morales I'll take Brendan Allen with the extra rounds over Michael Morales for your lineup”
PN
Picks Nation picks Brendan Allen VALUE
“I think Brendan Allen absolutely wins this fight and I think that's a fair price for him”
$1.23
Picks Nation picks Brendan Allen VALUE
“I think Brendan Allen absolutely wins this fight and I think that's a fair price for him”
$1.23
MN
Mayo Media Network picks Paul Craig VALUE
“I think Paul Craig in the EVENT_DETAILS I think has some finishing Equity”
Mayo Media Network picks Paul Craig VALUE
“I think Paul Craig in the EVENT_DETAILS I think has some finishing Equity”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Paul Craig VALUE
“I'm picking Paul Paul Craig to beat Brendan Brendan Allen in the main event”
$4.30
MMA EXPERTS picks Paul Craig VALUE
“I'm picking Paul Paul Craig to beat Brendan Brendan Allen in the main event”
$4.30
JA
JackMMA picks Brendan Allen
“so I'm going to go with Brendan Allen”
JackMMA picks Brendan Allen
“so I'm going to go with Brendan Allen”
MN
MMA Lock of the Night picks Paul Craig
“headlined by a middleweight matchup between Brendan Allen and Paul Craig”
MMA Lock of the Night picks Paul Craig
“headlined by a middleweight matchup between Brendan Allen and Paul Craig”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Allen26-7
W
Shahbazyan
Jun '26
W
Ridder
Oct '25
W
Vettori
Jul '25
L
Hernandez
Feb '25
L
Imavov
Sep '24
Craig17-10-1
L
Bukauskas
Sep '25
L
Nickal
Nov '24
L
Borralho
May '24
L
Allen
Nov '23
W
Muniz
Jul '23