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JM
Morales vs MatthewsMain Card · Welterweight
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JL
Hooper vs LeavittMain Card · Lightweight
PT
NA
Talbott vs AguirreMain Card · Bantamweight
AR
LP
Ribas vs PinheiroMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
MO
UM
Orolbai vs MedićMain Card · Welterweight
JB
JP
Brito vs PearcePreliminary Card · Featherweight
JJ
CA
Johnson vs AnheligerPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
CD
DT
Duncan vs TiuliulinPreliminary Card · Middleweight
MP
CM
Parkin vs MachadoPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
JS
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Saragih vs AlexanderPreliminary Card · Catchweight
AP
LP
Pérez vs PudilováPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
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Ogden vs MottaPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Estevam vs JohnsonPreliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Ogden v Motta
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Ogden 18-7
VS
15-5 Motta
5'11"
height
5'10"
155 lb
weight
169 lb
72"
reach
71"
36
age
33
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
3.1
strikes landed / min
3.6
48%
striking accuracy
37%
3.5
strikes absorbed / min
4.5
57%
striking defence
56%
2.0
takedowns / 15 min
0.0
30%
takedown accuracy
0%
100%
takedown defence
82%
0.8
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Trey Ogden
“so I'm going to pick um Trey Ogden on this one”
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Trey Ogden
“so I'm going to pick um Trey Ogden on this one”
ZP
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Nikolas Motta
“but Nikolas Motta is going to be the pick but Trey Ogden is definitely live it depends how much Trey Ogden wants it”
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Nikolas Motta
“but Nikolas Motta is going to be the pick but Trey Ogden is definitely live it depends how much Trey Ogden wants it”
WP
We Want Picks picks Nikolas Motta
“Nikolas Motta is a very good Striker he's got good power he's insanely fast he's very explosive he's athletic he moves well he's got that speed and he mixes up his striking pretty well his takedown defense as it sits today is 100% he has not been taken down in the UFC and because he Trust cross his takedown defense he really lets his hands go he lets his feet go and he's pretty creative in his striking he is the slight favorite here”
We Want Picks picks Nikolas Motta
“Nikolas Motta is a very good Striker he's got good power he's insanely fast he's very explosive he's athletic he moves well he's got that speed and he mixes up his striking pretty well his takedown defense as it sits today is 100% he has not been taken down in the UFC and because he Trust cross his takedown defense he really lets his hands go he lets his feet go and he's pretty creative in his striking he is the slight favorite here”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Trey Ogden VALUE
“I like Trey Trey Ogden to get the win here it's a pretty calculated Striker who fights patiently”
$2.10
MMA EXPERTS picks Trey Ogden VALUE
“I like Trey Trey Ogden to get the win here it's a pretty calculated Striker who fights patiently”
$2.10
SD
Santino DeFranco picks Nikolas Motta VALUE
“I think Mota wins it”
Santino DeFranco picks Nikolas Motta VALUE
“I think Mota wins it”
BP
Boxing MMA Picks picks Nikolas Motta VALUE
“I like Nicholas Mota I think he's going to keep it standing I think he's simply the better Striker so I like him in this spot”
Boxing MMA Picks picks Nikolas Motta VALUE
“I like Nicholas Mota I think he's going to keep it standing I think he's simply the better Striker so I like him in this spot”
CM
CHOL MMA picks Trey Ogden
“I'll be going with Trey Ogden by decision”
CHOL MMA picks Trey Ogden
“I'll be going with Trey Ogden by decision”
PR
Premium-Picks picks Trey Ogden VALUE
“I'm on the motto side but not by a lot”
Premium-Picks picks Trey Ogden VALUE
“I'm on the motto side but not by a lot”
TP
The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Trey Ogden
“I lean towards Ogden”
The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Trey Ogden
“I lean towards Ogden”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Nikolas Motta
“I'm going to take moo to win this fight by decision”
$1.77
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Nikolas Motta
“I'm going to take moo to win this fight by decision”
$1.77
Recent form
last five, most recent first
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L
Moisés
Jan '25
W
Radzhabov
Jul '24
W
Holobaugh
Mar '24
L
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Apr '23
W
Zellhuber
Sep '22
Motta15-5
L
Sadykhov
Jun '25
W
Hayisaer
Nov '24
W
Nolan
Jan '24
L
Torres
Jun '23
W
VanCamp
Sep '22