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Morales vs MatthewsMain Card · Welterweight
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JL
Hooper vs LeavittMain Card · Lightweight
PT
NA
Talbott vs AguirreMain Card · Bantamweight
AR
LP
Ribas vs PinheiroMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
MO
UM
Orolbai vs MedićMain Card · Welterweight
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JP
Brito vs PearcePreliminary Card · Featherweight
JJ
CA
Johnson vs AnheligerPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
CD
DT
Duncan vs TiuliulinPreliminary Card · Middleweight
MP
CM
Parkin vs MachadoPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
JS
LA
Saragih vs AlexanderPreliminary Card · Catchweight
AP
LP
Pérez vs PudilováPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
TO
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Ogden vs MottaPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Morales v Matthews
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Morales 18-0
VS
22-8 Matthews
6'0"
height
5'11"
170 lb
weight
170 lb
79"
reach
73"
27
age
31
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
5.4
strikes landed / min
5.9
48%
striking accuracy
41%
3.4
strikes absorbed / min
2.6
52%
striking defence
47%
1.2
takedowns / 15 min
2.2
41%
takedown accuracy
40%
92%
takedown defence
50%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
1.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
UC
UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Michael Morales VALUE
“fight Jeka SaragihtartJeka Saragih round three Jeka Saragihide call mot mot to win”
UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Michael Morales VALUE
“fight Jeka SaragihtartJeka Saragih round three Jeka Saragihide call mot mot to win”
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Michael Morales
“I feel like Michael Morales is more likely to win this particular fight so so I went with Michael Morales”
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Michael Morales
“I feel like Michael Morales is more likely to win this particular fight so so I went with Michael Morales”
ZP
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Michael Morales
“going to go with Michael Michael Morales on this one again one of those parly busted things”
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Michael Morales
“going to go with Michael Michael Morales on this one again one of those parly busted things”
DG
Diary of a Pro Gambler picks Michael Morales
“more often than not I think Matthews loses so if we consider the over under on this match up uh set over one and a half rounds or over two two and a half under two and a half in the even many yards range for me for me personally I do think it's more likely this fight goes deeper”
Diary of a Pro Gambler picks Michael Morales
“more often than not I think Matthews loses so if we consider the over under on this match up uh set over one and a half rounds or over two two and a half under two and a half in the even many yards range for me for me personally I do think it's more likely this fight goes deeper”
SH
Sherdog.com picks Michael Morales
“I'm going for Michael Michael Morales to win his fight with Jake Matthews um and he is this price is actually fluctuating... but I'm still taking anyway at minus 275”
$1.36
Sherdog.com picks Michael Morales
“I'm going for Michael Michael Morales to win his fight with Jake Matthews um and he is this price is actually fluctuating... but I'm still taking anyway at minus 275”
$1.36
WP
We Want Picks picks Michael Morales VALUE
“I do think Michael Morales wins I'm very confident in Michael Morales to win but the difference between Max Griffin and Jake Matthews is Jake Matthews can be finished Jake Matthews can be touched he can be submitted he can be chinned a little bit Jake Matthews has while he's very young and has an insane amount of fight experience in the UFC Jake Matthews has seen all the highs and all the lows and he's not as consistent yes he just beat flowers but this guy was stepping up a weight class is 155 pounder moving up to welterweight he was up a away class and short notice and he had some success against Jake I have to go Michael Morales here all day long I do think he's going to be worth the money because I think he can finish Jake Matthews whether he gets some takedowns or he finishes him standing submits him I I I think Michael Morales is light years ahead against light years ahead of Jake Matthews in this fight game”
We Want Picks picks Michael Morales VALUE
“I do think Michael Morales wins I'm very confident in Michael Morales to win but the difference between Max Griffin and Jake Matthews is Jake Matthews can be finished Jake Matthews can be touched he can be submitted he can be chinned a little bit Jake Matthews has while he's very young and has an insane amount of fight experience in the UFC Jake Matthews has seen all the highs and all the lows and he's not as consistent yes he just beat flowers but this guy was stepping up a weight class is 155 pounder moving up to welterweight he was up a away class and short notice and he had some success against Jake I have to go Michael Morales here all day long I do think he's going to be worth the money because I think he can finish Jake Matthews whether he gets some takedowns or he finishes him standing submits him I I I think Michael Morales is light years ahead against light years ahead of Jake Matthews in this fight game”
SD
Santino DeFranco picks Michael Morales VALUE
“I've got to go Michael Morales here”
Santino DeFranco picks Michael Morales VALUE
“I've got to go Michael Morales here”
BP
Boxing MMA Picks picks Michael Morales
“Michael Morales is going to be my pick for this fight”
Boxing MMA Picks picks Michael Morales
“Michael Morales is going to be my pick for this fight”
PR
Premium-Picks picks Michael Morales VALUE
“if medic stays the underdog he's got the experience on this guy”
$2.65
Premium-Picks picks Michael Morales VALUE
“if medic stays the underdog he's got the experience on this guy”
$2.65
TP
The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Jake Matthews
“Michael Morales taking on veteran Jake Matthews... I think that there potential for a late finish by Morales”
The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Jake Matthews
“Michael Morales taking on veteran Jake Matthews... I think that there potential for a late finish by Morales”
TP
The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Michael Morales VALUE
“I like Michael Morales a whole lot man”
$1.33
The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Michael Morales VALUE
“I like Michael Morales a whole lot man”
$1.33
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Morales18-0
W
Brady
Nov '25
W
Burns
May '25
W
Magny
Aug '24
W
Matthews
Nov '23
W
Griffin
Jul '23
Matthews22-8
W
Harris
May '26
L
Magny
Sep '25
W
Njokuani
Jul '25
W
Prado
Feb '25
W
Rowe
Jun '24