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Thompson vs HollandMain Card · Welterweight
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KH
Thompson vs HollandMain Card · Welterweight
RA
BB
Anjos vs BarberenaMain Card · Welterweight
MN
MS
Nicolau vs SchnellMain Card · Flyweight
SP
TT
Pavlovich vs TuivasaMain Card · Heavyweight
RD
JH
Dolidze vs HermanssonMain Card · Middleweight
EA
KD
Anders vs DaukausMain Card · Middleweight
PR
NP
Rowe vs PriceMain Card · Catchweight
AH
ED
Hill vs DucotePreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
CG
SH
Guida vs HoltzmanPreliminary Card · Lightweight
MJ
MD
Johnson vs DiakiesePreliminary Card · Lightweight
JP
DE
Pearce vs ElkinsPreliminary Card · Featherweight
NL
GV
Levy vs ValdèzPreliminary Card · Lightweight
FM
MR
Marshall vs RojoPreliminary Card · Featherweight
YJ
IN
Jauregui vs NunesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Thompson v Holland
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Thompson 17-8-1
VS
28-15 Holland
6'0"
height
6'3"
170 lb
weight
170 lb
75"
reach
81"
43
age
33
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.1
strikes landed / min
4.2
46%
striking accuracy
49%
3.0
strikes absorbed / min
3.2
55%
striking defence
50%
0.2
takedowns / 15 min
0.8
41%
takedown accuracy
38%
63%
takedown defence
54%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
0.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TM
The MMA-Holes picks Stephen Thompson
“would have beat him Stephen Thompson I'm gonna go there”
The MMA-Holes picks Stephen Thompson
“would have beat him Stephen Thompson I'm gonna go there”
FF
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Kevin Holland VALUE
“I got Kevin Kevin Holland man”
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Kevin Holland VALUE
“I got Kevin Kevin Holland man”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Kevin Holland
“I'm gonna pick Kevin Hall and I've been picking them all week”
$1.64
MMA EXPERTS picks Kevin Holland
“I'm gonna pick Kevin Hall and I've been picking them all week”
$1.64
SM
Scrap and Roll MMA picks Stephen Thompson
“for me it's a hundred percent Stephen Thompson the karate boy Stephen Thompson Thompson just to see that [ __ ] level of striking against someone who is foolish enough to try to stand and bang yo your boy Kevin Holland Kevin Holland Holland is going to have a one-way ticket to dream world”
Scrap and Roll MMA picks Stephen Thompson
“for me it's a hundred percent Stephen Thompson the karate boy Stephen Thompson Thompson just to see that [ __ ] level of striking against someone who is foolish enough to try to stand and bang yo your boy Kevin Holland Kevin Holland Holland is going to have a one-way ticket to dream world”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Stephen Thompson VALUE
“this is a tough one love Kevin Holland's mouth but the OG Stephen Stephen Thompson I gotta go with my heart on this one come on Wonder Boy Stephen Thompson”
MMA EXPERTS picks Stephen Thompson VALUE
“this is a tough one love Kevin Holland's mouth but the OG Stephen Stephen Thompson I gotta go with my heart on this one come on Wonder Boy Stephen Thompson”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Kevin Holland VALUE
“you have a really good feeling about Kevin Holland I feel pretty good too about him I picked him as a lock”
MMA EXPERTS picks Kevin Holland VALUE
“you have a really good feeling about Kevin Holland I feel pretty good too about him I picked him as a lock”
1C
101MMA Clinic picks Stephen Thompson VALUE
“so I'm gonna go with Stephen Stephen Thompson on this one”
101MMA Clinic picks Stephen Thompson VALUE
“so I'm gonna go with Stephen Stephen Thompson on this one”
SH
Sherdog.com picks Kevin Holland
“and then they may have been Kevin Holland Allen the favorite amazingly minus 170 minus plus 145 for Stephen Thompson”
Sherdog.com picks Kevin Holland
“and then they may have been Kevin Holland Allen the favorite amazingly minus 170 minus plus 145 for Stephen Thompson”
1C
101MMA Clinic picks Stephen Thompson VALUE
“I'm gonna go with Stephen Thompson on this one”
101MMA Clinic picks Stephen Thompson VALUE
“I'm gonna go with Stephen Thompson on this one”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Kevin Holland VALUE
“I'm going with Estella Nunes”
MMA EXPERTS picks Kevin Holland VALUE
“I'm going with Estella Nunes”
FF
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Kevin Holland VALUE
“I got Kevin Holland Kevin Holland Holland in this one”
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Kevin Holland VALUE
“I got Kevin Holland Kevin Holland Holland in this one”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Thompson17-8-1
L
Bonfim
Jul '25
L
Buckley
Oct '24
L
Rakhmonov
Dec '23
W
Holland
Dec '22
L
Muhammad
Dec '21
Holland28-15
W
Brown
Apr '26
L
Malott
Oct '25
L
Rodriguez
Jul '25
W
Luque
Jun '25
W
Nelson
Mar '25