MMA Prophecy
🌐BEST
UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland
Choose a fight to analyse
ST KH Thompson vs HollandMain Card · Welterweight RA BB Anjos vs BarberenaMain Card · Welterweight MN MS Nicolau vs SchnellMain Card · Flyweight SP TT Pavlovich vs TuivasaMain Card · Heavyweight RD JH Dolidze vs HermanssonMain Card · Middleweight EA KD Anders vs DaukausMain Card · Middleweight PR NP Rowe vs PriceMain Card · Catchweight AH ED Hill vs DucotePreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight CG SH Guida vs HoltzmanPreliminary Card · Lightweight MJ MD Johnson vs DiakiesePreliminary Card · Lightweight JP DE Pearce vs ElkinsPreliminary Card · Featherweight NL GV Levy vs ValdèzPreliminary Card · Lightweight FM MR Marshall vs RojoPreliminary Card · Featherweight YJ IN Jauregui vs NunesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Pearce v Elkins Featherweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Consensus13 picks · conf 34/99
Pearce 10
3 Elkins
1MBGUS pick Pearce
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Pearce 14-7 VS 29-11 Elkins
6'0" height 5'10"
145 lb weight 145 lb
71" reach 71"
34 age 42
Switch stance Orthodox
5.1 strikes landed / min 3.4
54% striking accuracy 38%
3.3 strikes absorbed / min 3.2
54% striking defence 51%
5.0 takedowns / 15 min 2.9
50% takedown accuracy 34%
55% takedown defence 56%
0.8 submissions / 15 min 1.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TM The MMA-Holes picks Darren Elkins “I like Darren Elkins I'm like over here I like Darren Elkins ... I'm gonna give Darren Elkins the benefit of the doubt Darren Elkins the benefit of the doubt Darren Elkins the benefit of the doubt surviving oh my NOT_IN_ROSTER_39 you're going Darren Elkins”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Jonathan Pearce VALUE “I'm definitely back in Jonathan Pearce here”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Jonathan Pearce “I'm picking Jonathan Pearce to win” $1.21
WP We Want Picks picks Jonathan Pearce VALUE “I see Jonathan Pearce implementing his game plan and I see him getting it done”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Jonathan Pearce VALUE “Jonathan Jonathan Pearce to win and over around and a half”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Jonathan Pearce VALUE “I love Tracy I think this is a great fight for her”
SH Sherdog.com picks Darren Elkins “Darren Elkins the damage against Jonathan Pearce you can never rule out Darren Elkins”
HB Half The Battle picks Jonathan Pearce “I'm picking Jonathan Pearce to win”
HB Half The Battle picks Darren Elkins “Give me Darren Elkins here”
WP We Want Picks picks Jonathan Pearce VALUE “we're both on the Jonathan Pearce side” $1.22
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Jonathan Pearce “Jonathan Pearce is going to be way too strong here” $2.18
1M 138 MMA picks Jonathan Pearce “official pick as it stands right now is going to be Jonathan Pearce”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Pearce14-7
L Sabatini Submission · R1 Oct '24
L Onama Decision · R3 Apr '24
L Brito Submission · R2 Nov '23
W Elkins Decision · R3 Dec '22
W Amirkhani KO/TKO · R2 Jul '22
Elkins29-11
L Erosa KO/TKO · R1 Apr '25
W Pineda Decision · R3 Oct '24
W Brown Submission · R3 Oct '23
L Pearce Decision · R3 Dec '22
W Connelly Decision · R3 Apr '22