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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Moicano v Riddell
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Moicano 20-7-1
VS
10-4 Riddell
5'11"
height
5'7"
155 lb
weight
155 lb
72"
reach
71"
37
age
34
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.4
strikes landed / min
4.7
49%
striking accuracy
53%
3.6
strikes absorbed / min
3.5
60%
striking defence
53%
1.9
takedowns / 15 min
1.8
44%
takedown accuracy
36%
72%
takedown defence
63%
0.6
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TM
The MMA-Holes picks Renato Moicano
“I gotta go Renato Moicano I'm gonna say well so I gotta go Renato Moicano I'm gonna say a decision I'm gonna give him the pleasantly surprised so I'm gonna go Renato Moicano for the win by decision... anyway I'm going to pick Renato Moicano in this... I like the Renato Moicano pick the Renato Moicano pick the Renato Moicano pick”
The MMA-Holes picks Renato Moicano
“I gotta go Renato Moicano I'm gonna say well so I gotta go Renato Moicano I'm gonna say a decision I'm gonna give him the pleasantly surprised so I'm gonna go Renato Moicano for the win by decision... anyway I'm going to pick Renato Moicano in this... I like the Renato Moicano pick the Renato Moicano pick the Renato Moicano pick”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Brad Riddell VALUE
“I'm with you on decision too I don't know so it's a weird fight I think Riddell has definitely got the better kickboxing he's a little more precise”
$2.15
MMA EXPERTS picks Brad Riddell VALUE
“I'm with you on decision too I don't know so it's a weird fight I think Riddell has definitely got the better kickboxing he's a little more precise”
$2.15
SH
Sherdog.com picks Brad Riddell
“Brad Riddell against Renato Moicano minus one two three from meccano he's a favor plus one or three for Riddell”
$2.03
Sherdog.com picks Brad Riddell
“Brad Riddell against Renato Moicano minus one two three from meccano he's a favor plus one or three for Riddell”
$2.03
SH
Sherdog.com picks Renato Moicano VALUE
“I'm going for a daily or I don't know as my cat or the same fighter as he once was um the final IQ recently as well”
$1.81
Sherdog.com picks Renato Moicano VALUE
“I'm going for a daily or I don't know as my cat or the same fighter as he once was um the final IQ recently as well”
$1.81
WP
We Want Picks picks Brad Riddell VALUE
“I like Brad Riddell here”
We Want Picks picks Brad Riddell VALUE
“I like Brad Riddell here”
WP
We Want Picks picks Brad Riddell VALUE
“I think he loses his fight I don't think he's gonna get the takedowns therefore it's a striking match and I think Brad Riddell's the far better Striker”
We Want Picks picks Brad Riddell VALUE
“I think he loses his fight I don't think he's gonna get the takedowns therefore it's a striking match and I think Brad Riddell's the far better Striker”
TT
TFB's Talks picks Brad Riddell VALUE
“if it's if probably going to be Brad Riddell if I had to put my money I'll go NOT_IN_ROSTER_4 Brad Riddell by gonna go NOT_IN_ROSTER_4 Brad Riddell by decision”
TFB's Talks picks Brad Riddell VALUE
“if it's if probably going to be Brad Riddell if I had to put my money I'll go NOT_IN_ROSTER_4 Brad Riddell by gonna go NOT_IN_ROSTER_4 Brad Riddell by decision”
WI
WEIGHING IN picks Brad Riddell
“I'm gonna take Brad Riddell ... I'm leaning towards uh Brad Riddell”
WEIGHING IN picks Brad Riddell
“I'm gonna take Brad Riddell ... I'm leaning towards uh Brad Riddell”
AM
Artem MMA picks Brad Riddell
“I'm from New Zealand I'm picking Brad Riddell I'm actually really really surprised with how little people are picking Bradford Alvin in this matchup”
Artem MMA picks Brad Riddell
“I'm from New Zealand I'm picking Brad Riddell I'm actually really really surprised with how little people are picking Bradford Alvin in this matchup”
1M
138 MMA picks Brad Riddell VALUE
“I'm going to take Riddell”
138 MMA picks Brad Riddell VALUE
“I'm going to take Riddell”
WP
We Want Picks picks Renato Moicano
“I'm going Renato Moicano he has the more dangerous guy I think on the feet he can withstand it find a takedown some weird scramble maybe find a submission but he's the more dangerous guy in a coin flip matchup I'm going the more dangerous guy but I don't love it I'm going Renato Moicano in this matchup”
We Want Picks picks Renato Moicano
“I'm going Renato Moicano he has the more dangerous guy I think on the feet he can withstand it find a takedown some weird scramble maybe find a submission but he's the more dangerous guy in a coin flip matchup I'm going the more dangerous guy but I don't love it I'm going Renato Moicano in this matchup”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Renato Moicano
“I'll take uh what Connor to win I'll take Renato Moicano to win this one by submission”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Renato Moicano
“I'll take uh what Connor to win I'll take Renato Moicano to win this one by submission”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Moicano20-7-1
W
Duncan
Apr '26
L
Dariush
Jun '25
L
Makhachev
Jan '25
W
Denis
Sep '24
W
Turner
Apr '24
Riddell10-4
L
Moicano
Nov '22
L
Turner
Jul '22
L
Fiziev
Dec '21
W
Dober
Jun '21
W
Coelho
Sep '20