MMA Prophecy
🌐BEST
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
Choose a fight to analyse
AP IA Pereira vs AdesanyaMain Card · Middleweight ZW CE Weili vs EsparzaMain Card · Women'S Strawweight DP MC Poirier vs ChandlerMain Card · Lightweight CG FE Gutiérrez vs EdgarMain Card · Bantamweight DH CP Hooker vs PuellesMain Card · Lightweight RM BR Moicano vs RiddellPreliminary Card · Lightweight RS DR Spann vs ReyesPreliminary Card · Catchweight EB MM Blanchfield vs McCannPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight AP WT Petroski vs TurmanPreliminary Card · Middleweight MF OA Frevola vs AzaitarEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight KK SJ Kowalkiewicz vs JuárezEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight MT SC Trizano vs ChoiEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight MJ JA Jackson vs ArceEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight CU NN Ulberg vs NegumereanuEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Frevola v Azaitar Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Consensus6 picks · conf 18/99
Frevola 2
4 Azaitar
WT pick Frevola
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Frevola 11-5-1 VS 13-2 Azaitar
5'9" height 5'8"
155 lb weight 156 lb
71" reach 71"
36 age 36
Orthodox stance Switch
4.6 strikes landed / min 5.7
43% striking accuracy 51%
3.5 strikes absorbed / min 5.0
68% striking defence 48%
1.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
70% takedown accuracy 0%
72% takedown defence 100%
1.6 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TM The MMA-Holes picks Matt Frevola “such a classic upset Matt Frevola's winning I hope so”
DS Dynes Sports picks Ottman Azaitar VALUE
WP We Want Picks picks Ottman Azaitar VALUE “I can see ottman as I turn getting the win getting the finish and I love him at that Underdog price point”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Ottman Azaitar VALUE “for me the only play here for me personally is going to be on ottman”
WP We Want Picks picks Ottman Azaitar VALUE “I think ottman gets this done... ottman is itar is absolutely the pick”
1M 138 MMA picks Ottman Azaitar VALUE “a zaitar is the pick”
WP We Want Picks picks Ottman Azaitar VALUE “I like Ottman Azaitar to find that inside nice tight shot I'll never fallen getting the job done inside of two rounds”
WP We Want Picks picks Ottman Azaitar “I'm gonna have to pick ottman zeitar here”
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Matt Frevola VALUE “give me ottman azatar” $2.15
Recent form last five, most recent first
Frevola11-5-1
L Nelson Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Ziam KO/TKO · R3 Sep '24
L Denis KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23
W Dober KO/TKO · R1 May '23
W Azaitar KO/TKO · R1 Nov '22
Azaitar13-2
L Johnson KO/TKO · R2 Dec '24
L Prado KO/TKO · R1 Jul '23
L Frevola KO/TKO · R1 Nov '22
W Worthy KO/TKO · R1 Sep '20
W Packalén KO/TKO · R1 Sep '19