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UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Dariush v Gamrot Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus15 picks · conf 36/99
Dariush 2
13 Gamrot
DT pick Dariush
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Dariush 23-7-1 VS 26-4 Gamrot
5'10" height 5'10"
157 lb weight 156 lb
72" reach 70"
37 age 35
Southpaw stance Southpaw
3.8 strikes landed / min 4.9
48% striking accuracy 55%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
57% striking defence 68%
1.9 takedowns / 15 min 1.7
34% takedown accuracy 44%
80% takedown defence 89%
0.9 submissions / 15 min 0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WP We Want Picks picks Mateusz Gamrot VALUE “Mateusz Gamrot should be in your lineup”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Mateusz Gamrot “the gamer mataj gam rot is the pick all day here I think he's gonna beat benildario” $1.54
TT TFB's Talks picks Mateusz Gamrot “if I had to bet my money even though I don't know who Mateo's gamrod is I probably bet Mateo's gamra just because he's a new new up-and-comer and when you look at the history of the UFC the history of MMA the newer guys the guys that are coming up usually make a bigger Splash and impact the guys that you don't expect to win usually wins in situations like this”
1C 101MMA Clinic picks Beneil Dariush “I'm picking Beneil Dariush you know a similar reason as uh to Katlyn Chookagian just a bit more experience but I will say I am impressed with Mateusz Gamrot so if he pulls it off I can't be so surprised”
1C 101MMA Clinic picks Beneil Dariush “I'm picking Beneil Dariush”
1C 101MMA Clinic picks Mateusz Gamrot VALUE “I'm gonna go with camera”
MJ MMA JOEY picks Mateusz Gamrot “gamrot versus Beneil Dariush super high level fight”
TG THE MMA GURU picks Mateusz Gamrot “I'm leaning towards Mateusz Gamrot in this fight”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Mateusz Gamrot VALUE “Mateusz Gamrot 8800 another guy that I think uh is going to get the finish here against Beneil Beneil Dariushh I think it's actually a really well matched fight and you could argue like these price tags should be a little bit closer you know vanilla I think people are forgetting like this guy's a very good fighter you know very good Striker Grappler has some wrestling um but you know Mateusz Gamrot this guy's 21-1 arguably 22-0 um you know I think he finishes here I just don't trust the durability of Beneil Dariush”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Beneil Dariush “I just don't trust the durability of Beneil Dariush Mateusz Gamrot it hits pretty hard um has very good power and it's he doesn't have like that one shot power per se but you know when he's fighting people he's hurting guys and you know the damage is adding up and I feel like you know Beneil Dariush has been hurt a lot he's been finished a lot”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Mateusz Gamrot VALUE “I think game Rock gets us done”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Mateusz Gamrot VALUE “I'm gonna side with mattes camera to win this match up”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Dariush23-7-1
L Salkilld KO/TKO · R1 May '26
L Denis KO/TKO · R1 Nov '25
W Moicano Decision · R3 Jun '25
L Tsarukyan KO/TKO · R1 Dec '23
L Oliveira KO/TKO · R1 Jun '23
Gamrot26-4
W Ribovics Submission · R2 Apr '26
L Oliveira Submission · R2 Oct '25
W Klein Decision · R3 May '25
L Hooker Decision · R3 Aug '24
W Anjos Decision · R3 Mar '24