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Pantoja vs PerezMain Card · Flyweight
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Morono vs SemelsbergerPreliminary Card · Welterweight
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Dober vs AlvesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Abdelwahab vs MayesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
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Klose vs GarcíaPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Pavlovich v Lewis
Heavyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Pavlovich 20-3
VS
29-13 Lewis
6'3"
height
6'3"
255 lb
weight
265 lb
84"
reach
79"
34
age
41
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
3.1
strikes landed / min
2.5
44%
striking accuracy
50%
3.3
strikes absorbed / min
2.5
66%
striking defence
40%
1.8
takedowns / 15 min
0.6
25%
takedown accuracy
26%
64%
takedown defence
52%
1.1
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TT
TFB's Talks picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“Sergei Pavlovich is gonna win this he is man and i think Sergei Pavlovich is as Sergei Pavlovich that's just my opinion Sergei Pavlovich is going to win but i want their period that's all i have to say”
TFB's Talks picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“Sergei Pavlovich is gonna win this he is man and i think Sergei Pavlovich is as Sergei Pavlovich that's just my opinion Sergei Pavlovich is going to win but i want their period that's all i have to say”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Derrick Lewis VALUE
“so i got surgery knockout or just even moneyline to be safe”
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Derrick Lewis VALUE
“so i got surgery knockout or just even moneyline to be safe”
SH
Sherdog.com picks Derrick Lewis VALUE
“i'm going for derek lewis i'm going for Derrick Lewis”
$2.10
Sherdog.com picks Derrick Lewis VALUE
“i'm going for derek lewis i'm going for Derrick Lewis”
$2.10
1C
101MMA Clinic picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“I'm picking pavlovich to win by by KO I think maybe maybe I'm seeing the same thing that the the oddsmakers are uh are seeing in that”
$1.80
101MMA Clinic picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“I'm picking pavlovich to win by by KO I think maybe maybe I'm seeing the same thing that the the oddsmakers are uh are seeing in that”
$1.80
1C
101MMA Clinic picks Derrick Lewis VALUE
“I honestly think like Derrick Lewis will get this one uh it's a mission for sure either of them you know like but I think the the sure bet is like um it's gonna be done before three rounds you know like maybe even first round I'm aiming for a second one”
$2.05
101MMA Clinic picks Derrick Lewis VALUE
“I honestly think like Derrick Lewis will get this one uh it's a mission for sure either of them you know like but I think the the sure bet is like um it's gonna be done before three rounds you know like maybe even first round I'm aiming for a second one”
$2.05
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“i kind of lean more on the pavlovic side myself this guy is huge has an 84-inch reach he's going to have a 5-inch reach advantage against derrick lewis it's simple as this i think somebody's getting knocked out i think somebody's getting knocked out probably in the very first round”
$1.16
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“i kind of lean more on the pavlovic side myself this guy is huge has an 84-inch reach he's going to have a 5-inch reach advantage against derrick lewis it's simple as this i think somebody's getting knocked out i think somebody's getting knocked out probably in the very first round”
$1.16
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“i'm gonna side with Sergei Pavlovich to use the footwork in this fight”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“i'm gonna side with Sergei Pavlovich to use the footwork in this fight”
HB
Half The Battle picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“i'm gonna go with Sergei Pavlovich to come out here and you know put it on Derrick Lewis”
$2.00
Half The Battle picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“i'm gonna go with Sergei Pavlovich to come out here and you know put it on Derrick Lewis”
$2.00
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Sergei Pavlovich
“i think both those fights will be filled with action uh Derrick Lewis Derrick Lewis first Sergei Pavlovich pavlid pavlovic has been on the terror uh he's a big boy”
Walk The Line MMA picks Sergei Pavlovich
“i think both those fights will be filled with action uh Derrick Lewis Derrick Lewis first Sergei Pavlovich pavlid pavlovic has been on the terror uh he's a big boy”
TF
The ICE Files picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“I'm gonna go with Sergei Pavlovich on this one”
$2.05
The ICE Files picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE
“I'm gonna go with Sergei Pavlovich on this one”
$2.05
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Pavlovich20-3
W
Teixeira
May '26
W
Cortes-Acosta
Aug '25
W
Rozenstruik
Feb '25
L
Volkov
Jun '24
L
Aspinall
Nov '23
Lewis29-13
L
Hokit
Jun '26
L
Cortes-Acosta
Jan '26
W
Teixeira
Jul '25
W
Nascimento
May '24
L
Almeida
Nov '23