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Dober vs AlvesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Moreno vs Kara-FranceMain Card · Flyweight
SP
DL
Pavlovich vs LewisMain Card · Heavyweight
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AP
Pantoja vs PerezMain Card · Flyweight
MA
AS
Ankalaev vs SmithMain Card · Light Heavyweight
AM
MS
Morono vs SemelsbergerPreliminary Card · Welterweight
DD
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Dober vs AlvesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
HA
DM
Abdelwahab vs MayesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
DK
RG
Klose vs GarcíaPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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AF
Morales vs FugittEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
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Edwards vs KimEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
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Negumereanu vs PotieriaEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
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Cosce vs MathethaEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Dober v Alves
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Dober 28-15
VS
20-12 Alves
5'8"
height
5'8"
155 lb
weight
155 lb
70"
reach
68"
37
age
35
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
2.9
strikes landed / min
1.9
52%
striking accuracy
48%
3.2
strikes absorbed / min
3.3
47%
striking defence
58%
1.9
takedowns / 15 min
0.3
51%
takedown accuracy
25%
66%
takedown defence
44%
1.8
submissions / 15 min
1.5
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
FF
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Drew Dober VALUE
“i have to back him here and i think he's a really good bet and i'm going to lock it in”
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Drew Dober VALUE
“i have to back him here and i think he's a really good bet and i'm going to lock it in”
MJ
MMA JOEY picks Drew Dober
“uh Drew Dober probably wins”
MMA JOEY picks Drew Dober
“uh Drew Dober probably wins”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Drew Dober VALUE
“i think uh i'm more so on the dover side myself uh Drew Dober 9 000. yeah this fight's going to be an absolute war um and i think a war does a favor a guy like drew dober”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Drew Dober VALUE
“i think uh i'm more so on the dover side myself uh Drew Dober 9 000. yeah this fight's going to be an absolute war um and i think a war does a favor a guy like drew dober”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Rafael Alves VALUE
“i'm gonna side with Rafael Alves i took him as an underdog against mark dear casey”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Rafael Alves VALUE
“i'm gonna side with Rafael Alves i took him as an underdog against mark dear casey”
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Drew Dober
“i'll take Drew Dober here uh to get the job done of course there's potential for him to get a knockout”
Walk The Line MMA picks Drew Dober
“i'll take Drew Dober here uh to get the job done of course there's potential for him to get a knockout”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Dober28-15
W
Johnson
Mar '26
W
Prepolec
Oct '25
L
Torres
Mar '25
L
Silva
Jul '24
L
Moicano
Feb '24
Alves20-12
L
Aliev
Feb '23
L
Dober
Jul '22
W
Diakiese
Nov '21
L
Ismagulov
May '21