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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Morono v Semelsberger Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus6 picks · conf 18/99
Morono 4
2 Semelsberger
MUDW pick Morono
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Morono 24-12 VS 11-8 Semelsberger
5'11" height 6'1"
171 lb weight 171 lb
72" reach 75"
35 age 33
Orthodox stance Switch
5.0 strikes landed / min 3.8
40% striking accuracy 42%
4.6 strikes absorbed / min 4.2
57% striking defence 54%
0.3 takedowns / 15 min 1.0
25% takedown accuracy 57%
47% takedown defence 45%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 0.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Alex Morono VALUE “i like this price for mourinho here i think it's going to be a very close fight you have simulsburger who's going to bring the power you have moreno who's going to bring uh the volume”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Alex Morono VALUE “i'm gonna side with Alex Morono”
WP We Want Picks picks Alex Morono VALUE “i think alex [__] is going to show up and beat Matthew Semelsberger” $77.00
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Matthew Semelsberger “give me Matthew Semelsberger Matthew Semelsberger to get the job done i think that he lands the harder crisper boxing shots uh he'll be able to keep the fight standing if he wants”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Alex Morono VALUE “i think alex morono has a pretty good shot” $2.50
TF The ICE Files picks Matthew Semelsberger “I'm gonna go with Matthew Semelsberger semmelsberger on this one”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Morono24-12
L Donchenko Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Leal KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
L Rodriguez Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Price Decision · R3 Jun '24
W McGee Decision · R3 Apr '24
Semelsberger11-8
L Radtke KO/TKO · R1 Nov '24
L Parsons Decision · R3 Jan '24
L Medić KO/TKO · R3 Jul '23
L Wells Decision · R3 Apr '23
W Matthews Decision · R3 Dec '22