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UFC 277: Peña vs. Nunes 2
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Ankalaev v Smith Light Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus10 picks · conf 30/99
Ankalaev 7
3 Smith
HGUTDW pick Ankalaev
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Ankalaev 21-2-1 VS 38-20 Smith
6'3" height 6'4"
204 lb weight 206 lb
75" reach 76"
34 age 37
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.1 strikes landed / min 3.2
65% striking accuracy 49%
2.9 strikes absorbed / min 4.6
54% striking defence 46%
2.2 takedowns / 15 min 0.5
35% takedown accuracy 26%
84% takedown defence 50%
0.8 submissions / 15 min 0.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TT TFB's Talks picks Anthony Smith VALUE “Anthony Smith is only 34. he's not that i'll go just Anthony Smith because i”
MJ MMA JOEY picks Anthony Smith “i'm probably going Magomed Ankalaev by decision but Anthony Smith is tough to count out”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Magomed Ankalaev VALUE “i think he's live for a finish here so i'm gonna be taking a look at Magomed Ankalaev 9400 i think he's live for a knockout on the feet and i think he's live to go for takedowns here”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Magomed Ankalaev “my prediction with this match up i'm gonna side with Magomed Ankalaev and goliath to win this fight”
HB Half The Battle picks Magomed Ankalaev “i'm gonna pick Magomed Ankalaev the win” $1.18
WP We Want Picks picks Magomed Ankalaev “ankalive is going to win this fight” $95.00
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Magomed Ankalaev “i'm obviously going to be picking magnum and Magomed Ankalaev this is a fighter that i said uh was going to be a future champion for a long time now”
TB Thiccc Boy picks Anthony Smith VALUE “I'm taking Anthony Smith”
GP Greedo Plays picks Magomed Ankalaev “i do like Magomed Ankalaev in a kind of boring slash slow slash technical striking match-up i just think this fight favors mogamoto live so much... i've got Magomed Ankalaev by decision”
TF The ICE Files picks Magomed Ankalaev “I'm going with Magomed Ankalaev Ankalaev on this one”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Ankalaev21-2-1
L Pereira KO/TKO · R1 Oct '25
W Pereira Decision · R5 Mar '25
W Rakić Decision · R3 Oct '24
W Walker KO/TKO · R2 Jan '24
W Smith KO/TKO · R2 Jul '22
Smith38-20
L Mingyang KO/TKO · R1 Apr '25
L Reyes KO/TKO · R2 Dec '24
L Dolidze Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Petrino Submission · R1 May '24
L Rountree Jr. KO/TKO · R3 Dec '23