Choose a fight to analyse
IA
RW
Adesanya vs WhittakerMain Card · Middleweight
TT
DL
Tuivasa vs LewisMain Card · Heavyweight
JC
DB
Cannonier vs BrunsonMain Card · Middleweight
RM
AH
Moicano vs HernandezMain Card · Lightweight
BG
NH
Green vs HaqparastMain Card · Lightweight
AA
JV
Arlovski vs VanderaaPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
CO
RM
O'Neill vs ModafferiPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
KP
MR
Phillips vs RojoPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
CU
FC
Ulberg vs CherantPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
RL
LM
Lawrence vs MartinezEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
JM
AD
Malkoun vs DobsonEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
DA
SM
Andrade vs MorozovEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
JW
MM
Wells vs MathethaEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
MG
WK
Grishin vs KnightEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight
RW
Adesanya vs WhittakerMain Card · Middleweight
TT
DL
Tuivasa vs LewisMain Card · Heavyweight
JC
DB
Cannonier vs BrunsonMain Card · Middleweight
RM
AH
Moicano vs HernandezMain Card · Lightweight
BG
NH
Green vs HaqparastMain Card · Lightweight
AA
JV
Arlovski vs VanderaaPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
CO
RM
O'Neill vs ModafferiPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
KP
MR
Phillips vs RojoPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
CU
FC
Ulberg vs CherantPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
RL
LM
Lawrence vs MartinezEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
JM
AD
Malkoun vs DobsonEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
DA
SM
Andrade vs MorozovEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
JW
MM
Wells vs MathethaEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
MG
WK
Grishin vs KnightEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Moicano v Hernandez
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Moicano 20-7-1
VS
18-8 Hernandez
5'11"
height
5'9"
155 lb
weight
155 lb
72"
reach
72"
37
age
33
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.4
strikes landed / min
2.6
49%
striking accuracy
49%
3.6
strikes absorbed / min
4.1
60%
striking defence
64%
1.9
takedowns / 15 min
1.9
44%
takedown accuracy
52%
72%
takedown defence
58%
0.6
submissions / 15 min
1.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Renato Moicano VALUE
“i'm gonna go moycano wins via decision i like kanato moycano here i'm feeling him i'm feeling them pretty pretty decent confidence”
$1.65
MMA EXPERTS picks Renato Moicano VALUE
“i'm gonna go moycano wins via decision i like kanato moycano here i'm feeling him i'm feeling them pretty pretty decent confidence”
$1.65
WP
We Want Picks picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE
“i like alex Alexander Hernandez to win this fight i have to trust that he will try to wrestle”
We Want Picks picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE
“i like alex Alexander Hernandez to win this fight i have to trust that he will try to wrestle”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE
“i feel like he's live for the knockout there's not a ton of dogs that i do like uh but Alexander Hernandez i feel like if he wins it's going to be a knockout”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE
“i feel like he's live for the knockout there's not a ton of dogs that i do like uh but Alexander Hernandez i feel like if he wins it's going to be a knockout”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Renato Moicano VALUE
“it takes alexander”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Renato Moicano VALUE
“it takes alexander”
MJ
MMA JOEY picks Alexander Hernandez
“i probably go him”
MMA JOEY picks Alexander Hernandez
“i probably go him”
WP
We Want Picks picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE
“i like Alexander Hernandez to win this fight he is my pick here”
We Want Picks picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE
“i like Alexander Hernandez to win this fight he is my pick here”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Alexander Hernandez
“i'm gonna take alexander hernandez to beat honato moykana”
$2.50
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Alexander Hernandez
“i'm gonna take alexander hernandez to beat honato moykana”
$2.50
WP
We Want Picks picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE
“i like alex hernandez to win this fight”
We Want Picks picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE
“i like alex hernandez to win this fight”
WP
We Want Picks picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE
“so i like Alexander Hernandez hernandez here in the underdog spite his raw athleticism his raw power and i just hope hope that he doesn't pull a miles john's and he actually at least threatens with the wrestling at least threaten with it so moycano can't just settle into a striking rhythm so i like Alexander Hernandez hernandez the underdog here but we'll see what happens”
We Want Picks picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE
“so i like Alexander Hernandez hernandez here in the underdog spite his raw athleticism his raw power and i just hope hope that he doesn't pull a miles john's and he actually at least threatens with the wrestling at least threaten with it so moycano can't just settle into a striking rhythm so i like Alexander Hernandez hernandez the underdog here but we'll see what happens”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Moicano20-7-1
W
Duncan
Apr '26
L
Dariush
Jun '25
L
Makhachev
Jan '25
W
Denis
Sep '24
W
Turner
Apr '24
Hernandez18-8
L
García
Apr '26
W
Ferreira
Sep '25
W
Hooper
Aug '25
W
Holobaugh
Mar '25
W
Hubbard
Oct '24