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UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Smith v Crute Light Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus6 picks · conf 18/99
Smith 0
6 Crute
pick Smith
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Smith 38-20 VS 14-4-2 Crute
6'4" height 6'2"
206 lb weight 205 lb
76" reach 74"
37 age 30
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.2 strikes landed / min 3.9
49% striking accuracy 53%
4.6 strikes absorbed / min 3.3
46% striking defence 70%
0.5 takedowns / 15 min 1.7
26% takedown accuracy 73%
50% takedown defence 76%
0.6 submissions / 15 min 0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
HB Half The Battle picks Jimmy Crute “i'm going uh with Jimmy Crute to get the biggest win of his career here EVENT_DETAILS” $1.53
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Jimmy Crute VALUE “i'm gonna take Jimmy Crute via decision”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jimmy Crute VALUE “give me Jimmy Crute”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Jimmy Crute VALUE “i like Jimmy Crute for the victory at the minus 185” $1.54
TG THE MMA GURU picks Jimmy Crute VALUE “i will call a 30 26 unanimous decision to Jimmy Crute”
GP Greedo Plays picks Jimmy Crute “i think Jimmy Crute will probably win this fight at the very end of this one i think he'll probably win the first rounds and i think in the third round Jimmy Crute will be able to get a finish i think he'll be able to get a tk i'll finish in this one Jimmy Crute in the third round”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Smith38-20
L Mingyang KO/TKO · R1 Apr '25
L Reyes KO/TKO · R2 Dec '24
L Dolidze Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Petrino Submission · R1 May '24
L Rountree Jr. KO/TKO · R3 Dec '23
Crute14-4-2
W Erslan Submission · R1 Sep '25
W Prachnio Submission · R1 Jul '25
L Menifield Submission · R2 Jul '23
L Hill KO/TKO · R1 Dec '21
L Smith KO/TKO · R1 Apr '21