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Brown vs OliveiraPreliminary Card · Welterweight
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Grant vs SekulićPreliminary Card · Welterweight
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Allen vs RobersonPreliminary Card · Middleweight
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Batgerel vs NatividadEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Brown v Oliveira
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Brown 20-7
VS
22-12-1 Oliveira
6'3"
height
—
171 lb
weight
—
78"
reach
—
35
age
38
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.4
strikes landed / min
3.0
47%
striking accuracy
51%
3.2
strikes absorbed / min
2.5
54%
striking defence
46%
0.7
takedowns / 15 min
2.4
39%
takedown accuracy
38%
70%
takedown defence
63%
0.6
submissions / 15 min
0.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Randy Brown
“i'm still gonna stick with my original pick it hasn't swayed me enough to change it”
MMA EXPERTS picks Randy Brown
“i'm still gonna stick with my original pick it hasn't swayed me enough to change it”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Alex Oliveira VALUE
“i'm gonna take Alex Oliveira i think if he makes it dirty looks to kick the legs of Randy Brown just just gets crazy in there”
$2.30
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Alex Oliveira VALUE
“i'm gonna take Alex Oliveira i think if he makes it dirty looks to kick the legs of Randy Brown just just gets crazy in there”
$2.30
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Alex Oliveira
“i like Alex Oliveira to win”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Alex Oliveira
“i like Alex Oliveira to win”
MW
MMA Fight Picks - Aaron Weinbaum picks Randy Brown VALUE
“I'm going to go with the underdog the slight underdog NOT_IN_ROSTER_3 Alex Oliveira... so let's say the odds have to say now without looking i would say Anthony Smith NOT_IN_ROSTER_13 is probably a favorite here what no stop it Anthony Smith NOT_IN_ROSTER_13 is an underdog a plus 160 underdog i don't see i don't see how that is possible here a minus 200 favorite Jimmy Crute crew i may go with the underdog again here that's crazy interesting very interesting huh yeah i just don't see it i don't see even close the level of competition here see here huh no i'm going with the underdog bud Anthony Smith NOT_IN_ROSTER_12 NOT_IN_ROSTER_13 so beautiful okay”
MMA Fight Picks - Aaron Weinbaum picks Randy Brown VALUE
“I'm going to go with the underdog the slight underdog NOT_IN_ROSTER_3 Alex Oliveira... so let's say the odds have to say now without looking i would say Anthony Smith NOT_IN_ROSTER_13 is probably a favorite here what no stop it Anthony Smith NOT_IN_ROSTER_13 is an underdog a plus 160 underdog i don't see i don't see how that is possible here a minus 200 favorite Jimmy Crute crew i may go with the underdog again here that's crazy interesting very interesting huh yeah i just don't see it i don't see even close the level of competition here see here huh no i'm going with the underdog bud Anthony Smith NOT_IN_ROSTER_12 NOT_IN_ROSTER_13 so beautiful okay”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Alex Oliveira VALUE
“i'm going to take oliveira to win by decision”
$2.30
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Alex Oliveira VALUE
“i'm going to take oliveira to win by decision”
$2.30
GP
Greedo Plays picks Randy Brown
“i think Randy Brown's stand-up game is too good for Alex Oliveira oliveira and again leaver has taken some damage in his career man he really has he's lost some very long fights that have gone the three rounds he's lost some very good fights i just think Randy Brown is gonna be better than him in this fight and it's it's crazy to think Randy Brown is only three years younger than Alex Oliveira oliveira don't know how that works but i'm still going with Randy Brown to get the job done here do i think he'll be able to put a finish on alex calhoun there i do not know because it's very hard to beat alex kelly Alex Oliveira oliveira i finish i don't think he gets the job done there i think Randy Brown probably wins this one by decision”
Greedo Plays picks Randy Brown
“i think Randy Brown's stand-up game is too good for Alex Oliveira oliveira and again leaver has taken some damage in his career man he really has he's lost some very long fights that have gone the three rounds he's lost some very good fights i just think Randy Brown is gonna be better than him in this fight and it's it's crazy to think Randy Brown is only three years younger than Alex Oliveira oliveira don't know how that works but i'm still going with Randy Brown to get the job done here do i think he'll be able to put a finish on alex calhoun there i do not know because it's very hard to beat alex kelly Alex Oliveira oliveira i finish i don't think he gets the job done there i think Randy Brown probably wins this one by decision”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Randy Brown VALUE
“i think he comes out there and beats alex oliveira here i feel like Randy Brown is a good pickup -165 favorite to the plus 130 dog i think he has the tools to beat oliveira unless something weird happens i mean granted Randy Brown has been in some weird fights and some weird things have happened i'm gonna go a brown decision”
MMA EXPERTS picks Randy Brown VALUE
“i think he comes out there and beats alex oliveira here i feel like Randy Brown is a good pickup -165 favorite to the plus 130 dog i think he has the tools to beat oliveira unless something weird happens i mean granted Randy Brown has been in some weird fights and some weird things have happened i'm gonna go a brown decision”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Brown20-7
L
Holland
Apr '26
L
Bonfim
Nov '25
W
Dalby
Apr '25
L
Battle
Dec '24
W
Santos
Jun '24
Oliveira22-12-1
L
Holland
Mar '22
L
Price
Oct '21
L
Brown
Apr '21
L
Rakhmonov
Oct '20
W
Sobotta
Jul '20