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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Sabatini v Connelly Featherweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus5 picks · conf 15/99
Sabatini 3
2 Connelly
HUD pick Sabatini
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Sabatini 21-5 VS 14-8 Connelly
5'8" height —
146 lb weight —
70" reach —
35 age 40
Orthodox stance Orthodox
1.9 strikes landed / min 3.3
59% striking accuracy 51%
1.5 strikes absorbed / min 3.0
48% striking defence 50%
4.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.3
44% takedown accuracy 14%
50% takedown defence 60%
2.0 submissions / 15 min 0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Tristan Connelly VALUE “i start to lean Tristan Connelly a bit here and i think he can potentially pull it off” $2.90
HB Half The Battle picks Pat Sabatini “i'm gonna lean with Pat Sabatini to get it done” $1.44
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Pat Sabatini VALUE “i'll take Pat Sabatini via decision”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Pat Sabatini VALUE “i do think he beats Tristan Connelly”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Pat Sabatini VALUE “i'm going to say sabatini wins a pretty clear-cut decision” $1.43
GP Greedo Plays picks Tristan Connelly “i think tristan connolly will be able to get the victory in this one he's in i right now i have him as an underdog um the graphics on the screen might be different than what i'm looking at right now but right now i'm quarrying two topology i'm looking at he's a plus 175 i know topology isn't a betting website but right now if tristan college is a one plus 175 i don't know why that is i think conley gets the job done in this one by unanimous decision”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Pat Sabatini VALUE “i'm gonna pick him on a decision over Tristan Connelly the inactivity being 35 i think that can play a factor and we can see sabatini get the win here and as far as the wrestling department goes maybe you gotta lead it to sabatini still watch out for the submissions of connolly”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Sabatini21-5
W Gomis Decision · R3 May '26
W Mariscal Decision · R3 Nov '25
W Brito Decision · R3 Apr '25
W Pearce Submission · R1 Oct '24
L Lopes KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23
Connelly14-8
L Elkins Decision · R3 Apr '22
L Sabatini Decision · R3 Apr '21
W Pereira Decision · R3 Sep '19