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UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
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MH DP Holloway vs PoirierMain Card · Lightweight MV BA Vettori vs AllenPreliminary Card · Middleweight AF ID Fugitt vs DulatovEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight JC MP Crute vs PrachnioEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight CJ NC Judice vs CaliariEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight KP VO Phillips vs OliveiraPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AG RV Gautier vs ValentinPreliminary Card · Middleweight DI PP Ige vs PitbullMain Card · Featherweight PC RK Costa vs KopylovMain Card · Middleweight MJ DZ Johnson vs ZellhuberMain Card · Lightweight KH DR Holland vs RodriguezMain Card · Welterweight FP NV Prado vs VeretennikovPreliminary Card · Welterweight RS ŁB Spann vs BrzeskiEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight BF JM Ferreira vs McVeyEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
BEST PRICE We back Costa over Kopylov · Middleweight Our fair value$2.90 Coolbet pays above fair $2.95
Where to back Costa best price · region · EV vs fair $2.90
US ESPN BET $2.90 -0%
UK Grosvenor $2.90 -0%
EU Coolbet $2.95 +2%
AU Unibet $2.90 -0%
Consensus147 picks · conf 99/99
Costa 54
93 Kopylov
TORKSO pick Costa
How it endsmethod calls · Costa · crowd line
KO/TKO 12 $8.47
Submission 1 $101.60
Decision 21 $4.84
None 1 $101.60
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Costa 0-0 VS 14-5 Kopylov
6'1" height 6'0"
185 lb weight 185 lb
72" reach 75"
35 age 34
Orthodox stance Southpaw
6.2 strikes landed / min 4.3
58% striking accuracy 54%
6.6 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
49% striking defence 58%
0.4 takedowns / 15 min 1.2
75% takedown accuracy 53%
80% takedown defence 87%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market34% vs 34%
Consensus54 of 147 analysts
Sharpest angleCosta by Decision — 21 of 35 method calls
Recommendation Back Costa @ $2.95 · fair $2.90 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MR Milo Reyes picks Paulo Costa VALUE “Paulo Costa in his prime... He's going to get mauled. He's going to get knocked out... He's going to lose... He's going to lose.”
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Paulo Costa “I think it's it's going to be a decision, but I think Paulo Costa is going to win”
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Roman Kopylov “I think Roman Kopylov wins this fight and there's a chance he KO's Paulo Costa.”
MD mdminds picks Paulo Costa VALUE “Roman NOT_IN_ROSTER_18 and I got NOT_IN_ROSTER_18 by points plus 120. Yeah. You like that one? Sure, why not?” $2.86
WP We Want Picks picks Roman Kopylov VALUE “Paloca is going to have a hard time with Roman Kopylov”
WP We Want Picks picks Paulo Costa “I don't think Paulo wins”
EB ESPN BET picks Roman Kopylov VALUE “Give me Roman Cop to win and over one and a half rounds. Costa still has good durability. We get that number down from -250 to the minus 130 -140.” $1.40
TA TakeDownTalks picks Paulo Costa VALUE “Give me Roman Kopylov by decision.” $1.47
SA Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Paulo Costa VALUE “I feel the same way about Paulo Costa this weekend.”
RX RX picks Paulo Costa “some big names on the card”
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Roman Kopylov VALUE “I'm going to pick Roman Kipolo at the submission round number two”
DB Denver Sports Betting picks Roman Kopylov “I got Roman on this one.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Costa0-0
W Murzakanov KO/TKO · R3 Apr '26
W Kopylov Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Strickland Decision · R5 Jun '24
L Whittaker Decision · R3 Feb '24
W Rockhold Decision · R3 Aug '22
Kopylov14-5
W Tulio Decision · R3 May '26
L Rodrigues Decision · R3 Nov '25
L Costa Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Curtis KO/TKO · R3 Jan '25
W Almeida Decision · R3 Jun '24