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UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
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MH DP Holloway vs PoirierMain Card · Lightweight MV BA Vettori vs AllenPreliminary Card · Middleweight AF ID Fugitt vs DulatovEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight JC MP Crute vs PrachnioEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight CJ NC Judice vs CaliariEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight KP VO Phillips vs OliveiraPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AG RV Gautier vs ValentinPreliminary Card · Middleweight DI PP Ige vs PitbullMain Card · Featherweight PC RK Costa vs KopylovMain Card · Middleweight MJ DZ Johnson vs ZellhuberMain Card · Lightweight KH DR Holland vs RodriguezMain Card · Welterweight FP NV Prado vs VeretennikovPreliminary Card · Welterweight RS ŁB Spann vs BrzeskiEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight BF JM Ferreira vs McVeyEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
BEST PRICE We back Spann over Brzeski · Heavyweight Our fair value$1.39 Betfair Sportsbook pays above fair $1.44
Where to back Spann best price · region · EV vs fair $1.39
US FanDuel $1.43 +3%
UK Betfair Sportsbook $1.44 +3%
EU Coolbet $1.41 +1%
AU Neds $1.42 +2%
Consensus69 picks · conf 75/99
Spann 54
15 Brzeski
PMMJJV pick Spann
How it endsmethod calls · Spann · crowd line
KO/TKO 66 $1.79
Submission 12 $9.87
Decision 4 $29.60
None 3 $39.47
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Spann 23-11 VS 9-5-1 Brzeski
6'5" height 6'3"
252 lb weight 242 lb
79" reach 78"
34 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.3 strikes landed / min 4.9
40% striking accuracy 50%
3.9 strikes absorbed / min 3.5
43% striking defence 54%
1.3 takedowns / 15 min 0.5
35% takedown accuracy 50%
50% takedown defence 36%
1.7 submissions / 15 min 0.5
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market72% vs 69%
Consensus54 of 69 analysts
Sharpest angleSpann by KO/TKO — 66 of 85 method calls
Recommendation Back Spann @ $1.44 · fair $1.39 +3% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MR Milo Reyes picks Ryan Spann VALUE “I got Brian Span I got winning this fight. Okay, 100%.”
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Łukasz Brzeski “I Łukasz Brzeski.”
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Ryan Spann “So, I'm going to go with Ryan Span in this one.”
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Ryan Spann “give me Ryan Spann.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Ryan Spann “Uh Ryan Spann should win the fight.”
WP We Want Picks picks Ryan Spann VALUE “I think Ryan Span's gonna get to him”
WP We Want Picks picks Łukasz Brzeski “I think Ryan Span's gonna get to him”
TA TakeDownTalks picks Ryan Spann VALUE “I'll pick Ryan Spann. Give me Ryan Spann money line.” $1.48
TP The Die Hard MMA Podcast picks Ryan Spann VALUE “We did get some respected bets early at minus 230 on Ryan Spann.” $1.42
LF Liam Picks Fights picks Ryan Spann VALUE “the pick is Ryan Span”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Ryan Spann “I'm going with Ryan Spann.” $1.43
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Ryan Spann “I'm going to pick Ryan Spann Money Line.” $1.42
Recent form last five, most recent first
Spann23-11
W Buchecha KO/TKO · R2 Apr '26
W Brzeski Submission · R1 Jul '25
L Cortes-Acosta KO/TKO · R2 Mar '25
W Preux Submission · R1 Oct '24
L Guskov KO/TKO · R2 Apr '24
Brzeski9-5-1
L Spann Submission · R1 Jul '25
L Nzechukwu KO/TKO · R1 Dec '24
L Parkin KO/TKO · R1 Jul '24
W Walker Decision · R3 Apr '24
L Cortes-Acosta KO/TKO · R1 Aug '23