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UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
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MH DP Holloway vs PoirierMain Card · Lightweight MV BA Vettori vs AllenPreliminary Card · Middleweight AF ID Fugitt vs DulatovEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight JC MP Crute vs PrachnioEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight CJ NC Judice vs CaliariEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight KP VO Phillips vs OliveiraPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AG RV Gautier vs ValentinPreliminary Card · Middleweight DI PP Ige vs PitbullMain Card · Featherweight PC RK Costa vs KopylovMain Card · Middleweight MJ DZ Johnson vs ZellhuberMain Card · Lightweight KH DR Holland vs RodriguezMain Card · Welterweight FP NV Prado vs VeretennikovPreliminary Card · Welterweight RS ŁB Spann vs BrzeskiEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight BF JM Ferreira vs McVeyEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
BEST PRICE We back Johnson over Zellhuber · Lightweight Our fair value$4.72 Pinnacle pays above fair $6.72
Where to back Johnson best price · region · EV vs fair $4.72
US BetOnline.ag $6.50 +38%
UK Virgin Bet $5.80 +23%
EU Pinnacle $6.72 +42%
AU PlayUp $6.00 +27%
Consensus113 picks · conf 92/99
Johnson 38
75 Zellhuber
FMTNOS pick Johnson
How it endsmethod calls · Johnson · crowd line
KO/TKO 8 $7.67
Submission 2 $30.66
Decision 3 $20.44
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Johnson 0-0 VS 15-3 Zellhuber
5'10" height 6'1"
156 lb weight 156 lb
74" reach 77"
40 age 26
Southpaw stance Switch
4.3 strikes landed / min 6.3
39% striking accuracy 40%
3.8 strikes absorbed / min 6.0
57% striking defence 55%
0.6 takedowns / 15 min 0.2
41% takedown accuracy 25%
81% takedown defence 94%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.2
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market21% vs 15%
Consensus38 of 113 analysts
Sharpest angleJohnson by KO/TKO — 8 of 13 method calls
Recommendation Back Johnson @ $6.72 · fair $4.72 +42% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MR Milo Reyes picks Daniel Zellhuber VALUE “Michael Johnson is a beast... He's going to beat Daniel. He is going to beat him... I see a KO incoming... Okay, that's just me... It's going to happen.”
MR Milo Reyes picks Michael Johnson VALUE “Michael Johnson is the best at that... Michael Johnson is a beast... He's going to beat Daniel. He is going to beat him... I see a KO incoming... Okay, that's just me. Come back to my video... You want to [ __ ] on me in the comments beforehand? Do it. Come back to my video afterwards and tell me what the [ __ ] happened.”
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Daniel Zellhuber “So, I'm going to go with Daniel Zellhuber.”
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Daniel Zellhuber “I'm picking Daniel Zellhuber to win this fight.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Daniel Zellhuber “Um, I got Daniel Zellhuber.”
MD mdminds picks Michael Johnson VALUE “Zel Hoover by KO. Plus 185.” $2.85
WP We Want Picks picks Michael Johnson “We're going to pick Daniel Zel Huber”
WP We Want Picks picks Daniel Zellhuber VALUE “We're going to pick Daniel Zel Huber”
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Michael Johnson VALUE “I would put my money on Michael Johnson ... I think Michael Johnson at the knockout at the round number one”
TP The Die Hard MMA Podcast picks Daniel Zellhuber VALUE “I lean towards the kid.” $1.17
PN Picks Nation picks Daniel Zellhuber VALUE “Daniel's going to be the pick. I think he gets it done.”
HN Hidden Source News picks Daniel Zellhuber VALUE “we are siding with the younger, faster striker in Daniel Zellhuber to take the win”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Johnson0-0
L Dober KO/TKO · R2 Mar '26
W Zellhuber Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Azaitar KO/TKO · R2 Dec '24
W Flowers Decision · R3 Feb '24
L Ferreira KO/TKO · R2 May '23
Zellhuber15-3
L Green KO/TKO · R2 Feb '26
L Johnson Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Ribovics Decision · R3 Sep '24
W Prado Decision · R3 Feb '24
W Giagos Submission · R2 Sep '23