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UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
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CU DR Ulberg vs ReyesMain Card · Light Heavyweight JJ RT Jenkins vs TaverasMain Card · Catchweight JC IE Crute vs ErslanMain Card · Light Heavyweight JM NM Matthews vs MagnyMain Card · Welterweight NS RB Stirling vs BellatoPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight LL AT Lookboonmee vs ThainaraPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight CR AP Rowston vs PetroskiPreliminary Card · Middleweight CT JM Thicknesse vs MusasaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight JM RB Mullarkey vs BedoyaPreliminary Card · Lightweight MM LC Montague vs CarolinaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight BP EE Peričić vs EllisonPreliminary Card · Heavyweight TN CC Nolan vs CampbellMain Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Reyes over Ulberg · Light Heavyweight Our fair value$2.85 Betsson pays above fair $3.15
Where to back Reyes best price · region · EV vs fair $2.85
US BetOnline.ag $3.13 +10%
UK LeoVegas $3.05 +7%
EU Betsson $3.15 +10%
AU PointsBet (AU) $3.10 +9%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $3.12
Consensus253 picks · conf 99/99
Ulberg 145
108 Reyes
THHDLL pick Ulberg
How it endsmethod calls · Reyes · crowd line
KO/TKO 51 $4.14
Submission 3 $70.38
Decision 18 $11.73
None 2 $105.57
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Ulberg 14-1 VS 15-5 Reyes
6'4" height 6'4"
205 lb weight 206 lb
77" reach 77"
35 age 36
Orthodox stance Southpaw
5.5 strikes landed / min 5.0
63% striking accuracy 43%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 2.5
64% striking defence 70%
2.7 takedowns / 15 min 2.5
71% takedown accuracy 73%
77% takedown defence 68%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 0.6
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market35% vs 32%
Consensus108 of 253 analysts
Sharpest angleReyes by KO/TKO — 51 of 74 method calls
Recommendation Back Reyes @ $3.15 · fair $2.85 +10% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Carlos Ulberg “I did pick him to win.”
BE Best Entertainment picks Carlos Ulberg “hometown favorite, Carlos Carlos Ulberg, he's going to be taking this fight.”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Dominick Reyes VALUE “I think Dominick Reyes is actually dominate.”
HB Half The Battle picks Carlos Ulberg “I think Carlos Ulberg's going to win via left hook knockout”
FF Frozen Fists picks Carlos Ulberg VALUE “I'm gonna go with Carlos Ulberg”
TM Topside MMA picks Carlos Ulberg “Do not put money on Carlos Ulberg for the love of God.”
TM Topside MMA picks Dominick Reyes VALUE “The only value is on Dominic Reyes.”
WS We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring picks Dominick Reyes VALUE “I love Dominick Reyes.” $3.57
TM The MMA-Holes picks Dominick Reyes VALUE “And then I picked Dominick Reyes as an under as well.”
M👊 MMA.I. - UFC Predictions & Simulations 👊🎮 picks Carlos Ulberg “The simulations have Carlos Ulberg coming out on top, winning five out of five simulations with four simulation victories by technical knockout in the fourth and fifth rounds and one simulation victory by knockout in the third round.”
DI DieselGamer79 picks Dominick Reyes “And Dominick Reyes got him out of there in one round.”
TF THE MMA FRISBY picks Dominick Reyes “I want Dominick Reyes to win.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Ulberg14-1
W Procházka KO/TKO · R1 Apr '26
W Reyes KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25
W Błachowicz Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Oezdemir Decision · R3 Nov '24
W Menifield KO/TKO · R1 May '24
Reyes15-5
W Walker Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Ulberg KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25
W Krylov KO/TKO · R1 Apr '25
W Smith KO/TKO · R2 Dec '24
W Jacoby KO/TKO · R1 Jun '24