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UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
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CU DR Ulberg vs ReyesMain Card · Light Heavyweight JJ RT Jenkins vs TaverasMain Card · Catchweight JC IE Crute vs ErslanMain Card · Light Heavyweight JM NM Matthews vs MagnyMain Card · Welterweight NS RB Stirling vs BellatoPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight LL AT Lookboonmee vs ThainaraPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight CR AP Rowston vs PetroskiPreliminary Card · Middleweight CT JM Thicknesse vs MusasaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight JM RB Mullarkey vs BedoyaPreliminary Card · Lightweight MM LC Montague vs CarolinaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight BP EE Peričić vs EllisonPreliminary Card · Heavyweight TN CC Nolan vs CampbellMain Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Thicknesse over Musasa · Bantamweight Our fair value$1.69 ESPN BET pays above fair $6.00
Where to back Thicknesse best price · region · EV vs fair $1.69
US ESPN BET $6.00 +255%
UK Paddy Power $5.50 +226%
EU Betsson $5.00 +196%
AU Neds $2.45 +45%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange —
Consensus150 picks · conf 99/99
Thicknesse 108
42 Musasa
BMBRST pick Thicknesse
How it endsmethod calls · Thicknesse · crowd line
KO/TKO 11 $8.75
Submission 21 $4.58
Decision 23 $4.18
None 2 $48.11
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Thicknesse 8-1 VS 8-2 Musasa
5'7" height 5'8"
135 lb weight 135 lb
69" reach 74"
27 age 27
Orthodox stance Southpaw
2.5 strikes landed / min 2.6
50% striking accuracy 40%
3.7 strikes absorbed / min 3.5
69% striking defence 48%
0.7 takedowns / 15 min 0.6
25% takedown accuracy 64%
76% takedown defence 55%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market59% vs 17%
Consensus108 of 150 analysts
Sharpest angleThicknesse by Decision — 23 of 57 method calls
Recommendation Back Thicknesse @ $6.00 · fair $1.69 +255% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Josias Musasa VALUE “I think Josias Musasa might definitely win this fight.”
TM Topside MMA picks Josias Musasa “Josiah Josias Musasa is training, but not at the same level.”
TM The MMA-Holes picks Colby Thicknesse VALUE “I picked Colby Thicknesse down with the thick.”
MM mmanow27 picks Colby Thicknesse VALUE “Colby Thicknesse vers Josias Musasa is fun.”
BI BigCMMA picks Colby Thicknesse “I think Kobe thickness is going to win a 29 28 unanimous or split decision”
MS Mister C the Informal Spectator picks Colby Thicknesse “Colby Thicknesse [__] give me Bora boys got”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Colby Thicknesse VALUE “I'm going to go with the thickness. Not I'm not really down with the thickness, but I will pick Kobe over Josias Musasa.”
FF Fite Feed picks Colby Thicknesse “Michelle Montague, Colby Thicknesse, Jamie,”
EM EXPERTO DE MMA picks Colby Thicknesse “I'm going with Colby Thicknesse.”
KT Kurt Tay picks Colby Thicknesse “Colby Thicknesse versus Josias Musasa. Oh, Oh, Oh, we win. We win. You guess you guess boy's boy's boy's going to be nice.”
CC Cage Capital picks Colby Thicknesse VALUE “give me Colby Thicknesse for plus 205”
TP Tony's Picks picks Josias Musasa “Uh, I'll just lay the minus 150. I know it's a little juicy, but uh, I like the Josias Musasa side.” $1.67
Recent form last five, most recent first
Thicknesse8-1
W Morales Decision · R3 May '26
W Musasa Decision · R3 Sep '25
L Topuria Decision · R3 Feb '25
Musasa8-2
L Thicknesse Decision · R3 Sep '25
L Vera Submission · R1 Mar '25