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UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
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CU DR Ulberg vs ReyesMain Card · Light Heavyweight JJ RT Jenkins vs TaverasMain Card · Catchweight JC IE Crute vs ErslanMain Card · Light Heavyweight JM NM Matthews vs MagnyMain Card · Welterweight NS RB Stirling vs BellatoPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight LL AT Lookboonmee vs ThainaraPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight CR AP Rowston vs PetroskiPreliminary Card · Middleweight CT JM Thicknesse vs MusasaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight JM RB Mullarkey vs BedoyaPreliminary Card · Lightweight MM LC Montague vs CarolinaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight BP EE Peričić vs EllisonPreliminary Card · Heavyweight TN CC Nolan vs CampbellMain Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Magny over Matthews · Welterweight Our fair value$9.87 FanDuel pays above fair $19.00
Where to back Magny best price · region · EV vs fair $9.87
US FanDuel $19.00 +93%
UK Virgin Bet $12.50 +27%
EU NordicBet $15.00 +52%
AU Unibet $12.50 +27%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange —
Consensus184 picks · conf 99/99
Matthews 152
32 Magny
BMLLBS pick Matthews
How it endsmethod calls · Magny · crowd line
KO/TKO 8 $27.13
Submission 3 $72.35
Decision 10 $21.71
None 1 $217.05
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Matthews 22-8 VS 31-14 Magny
5'11" height 6'3"
170 lb weight 170 lb
73" reach 80"
31 age 38
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.9 strikes landed / min 4.0
41% striking accuracy 50%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
47% striking defence 56%
2.2 takedowns / 15 min 3.0
40% takedown accuracy 34%
50% takedown defence 84%
1.8 submissions / 15 min 0.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market10% vs 5%
Consensus32 of 184 analysts
Sharpest angleMagny by Decision — 10 of 22 method calls
Recommendation Back Magny @ $19.00 · fair $9.87 +93% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
FF Frozen Fists picks Jake Matthews VALUE “I'm obviously taking Jake Matthews.”
WS We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring picks Neil Magny “Neil Magny comeback.” $12.00
BR bryce_Bet$ picks Neil Magny “No explicit quote identifying a pick.”
MM mmanow27 picks Jake Matthews VALUE “I think Jake Matthews wins.”
BI BigCMMA picks Jake Matthews “Give me Jake Matthews. I think he's going to rock uh Neil Magny and I think he'll win a decision”
SR SrodrMMABet picks Neil Magny VALUE “I have Neil Magny. I got him at the opening line plus 375.” $4.75
SR SrodrMMABet picks Neil Magny “I have Neil Magny 0.45 units.”
BR Bro$TalkMma picks Neil Magny VALUE “I'm going to go with Magny in this one by decision or KO.”
MT MMA Tugg picks Jake Matthews “Give me Jake Matthews. I don't feel great about it.”
LS Last Real Sport picks Jake Matthews “I do like Jake Matthews to win this fight. So, Jake is the pick”
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Jake Matthews “I just think Jake Matthews is gonna win this ... Jake Matthews should win this Jake Matthews should win this.”
SC Street Champs picks Jake Matthews VALUE “Jake Matthews -380... I'm going Mr. White Boy” $1.26
Recent form last five, most recent first
Matthews22-8
W Harris Decision · R3 May '26
L Magny Submission · R3 Sep '25
W Njokuani Submission · R1 Jul '25
W Prado Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Rowe Decision · R3 Jun '24
Magny31-14
L Amosov Submission · R1 Dec '25
W Matthews Submission · R3 Sep '25
W Santos KO/TKO · R2 Aug '25
L Prates KO/TKO · R1 Nov '24
L Morales KO/TKO · R1 Aug '24