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UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
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MD PY Dvalishvili vs YanMain Card · Bantamweight AP JV Pantoja vs VanMain Card · Flyweight BM TT Moreno vs TairaMain Card · Flyweight HC PT Cejudo vs TalbottMain Card · Bantamweight JB BG Błachowicz vs GuskovMain Card · Light Heavyweight GD MT Dawson vs TorresPreliminary Card · Lightweight TM CD McKinney vs DuncanPreliminary Card · Lightweight MB KS Barber vs SilvaPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight NS FZ Sadykhov vs ZiamPreliminary Card · Lightweight MV BF Vettori vs FerreiraEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight EB JT Barboza vs TurnerEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight IB İA Baraniewski vs AslanEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight MA AT Abdul-Malik vs TrócoliEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight MN MS Naimov vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE We back Yan over Dvalishvili · Bantamweight Our fair value$4.67 NordicBet pays above fair $4.75
Where to back Yan best price · region · EV vs fair $4.67
US ESPN BET $4.50 -4%
UK Grosvenor $4.40 -6%
EU NordicBet $4.75 +2%
AU SportsBet $4.45 -5%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $4.55
Consensus399 picks · conf 99/99
Dvalishvili 313
86 Yan
PTTNHM pick Dvalishvili
How it endsmethod calls · Yan · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $23.36
Submission 1 $23.36
Decision 3 $7.79
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Dvalishvili 21-4 VS 18-5 Yan
5'6" height 5'7"
135 lb weight 135 lb
68" reach 67"
35 age 33
Orthodox stance Switch
4.3 strikes landed / min 5.1
39% striking accuracy 54%
3.1 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
60% striking defence 58%
8.2 takedowns / 15 min 1.6
47% takedown accuracy 49%
76% takedown defence 84%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 0.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market21% vs 21%
Consensus86 of 399 analysts
Sharpest angleYan by Decision — 3 of 5 method calls
Recommendation Back Yan @ $4.75 · fair $4.67 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Petr Yan VALUE “I would place some money on Petr Yan... my pick is NOT_IN_ROSTER_15, but if I were to bet, I would place some money on Petr Yan.”
TE TenSevenMMA picks Merab Dvalishvili “pretty much dominated Petr Yan before”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Merab Dvalishvili “I'm picking Merab Dvalishvili >> We're all on Merab Dvalishvili anyway.”
WM Wristlock MMA picks Merab Dvalishvili “I am a big Peter Jan fan, but I'm going to have to go with NOT_IN_ROSTER_4 in this one.”
TD The DubCast picks Petr Yan “I I just have to go Petr Yan. You just have to go Petr Yan. ... I'm going with Petr Yan ... we're both with Petr Yan.”
ID In The Arena MMA w/ MagicM & Nick Davis picks Petr Yan VALUE “I was really looking at Petr Yan by sub”
RX RX picks Merab Dvalishvili “Give me Merab Dvalishvili by decision. Merab Dvalishvili's going to win this fight.”
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Merab Dvalishvili “Like Merab Dvalishvili wins this fight, AK, if he goes the UFC.”
OP Overdogs Podcast with Mike Perry picks Merab Dvalishvili “enough to take Merab Dvalishvili. So, Merab Dvalishvili has been Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan.”
FR FREESTYLEBENDER picks Merab Dvalishvili “So yeah, Merab Dvalishvili by decision”
MT MMA Tugg picks Merab Dvalishvili “Give me Merab Dvalishvili. He's going to win versus Petr Yan fight.”
BS Betting Weekly Studios picks Petr Yan VALUE “I'm happy to take it you're getting this number on Petr Yan”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Dvalishvili21-4
L Yan Decision · R5 Dec '25
W Sandhagen Decision · R5 Oct '25
W O'Malley Submission · R3 Jun '25
W Nurmagomedov Decision · R5 Jan '25
W O'Malley Decision · R5 Sep '24
Yan18-5
W Dvalishvili Decision · R5 Dec '25
W McGhee Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Figueiredo Decision · R5 Nov '24
W Yadong Decision · R3 Mar '24
L Dvalishvili Decision · R5 Mar '23