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UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
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MD PY Dvalishvili vs YanMain Card · Bantamweight AP JV Pantoja vs VanMain Card · Flyweight BM TT Moreno vs TairaMain Card · Flyweight HC PT Cejudo vs TalbottMain Card · Bantamweight JB BG Błachowicz vs GuskovMain Card · Light Heavyweight GD MT Dawson vs TorresPreliminary Card · Lightweight TM CD McKinney vs DuncanPreliminary Card · Lightweight MB KS Barber vs SilvaPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight NS FZ Sadykhov vs ZiamPreliminary Card · Lightweight MV BF Vettori vs FerreiraEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight EB JT Barboza vs TurnerEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight IB İA Baraniewski vs AslanEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight MA AT Abdul-Malik vs TrócoliEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight MN MS Naimov vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE We back Torres over Dawson · Lightweight Our fair value$2.78 BetOnline.ag pays above fair $3.35
Where to back Torres best price · region · EV vs fair $2.78
US BetOnline.ag $3.35 +20%
UK Unibet (UK) $3.25 +17%
EU Pinnacle $3.27 +18%
AU PlayUp $3.15 +13%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $3.23
Consensus239 picks · conf 99/99
Dawson 127
112 Torres
TCNMHT pick Dawson
How it endsmethod calls · Torres · crowd line
KO/TKO 18 $3.24
Submission 2 $29.20
Decision 1 $58.40
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Dawson 23-3-1 VS 17-3 Torres
5'10" height 5'10"
156 lb weight 156 lb
72" reach 73"
32 age 31
Switch stance Switch
3.1 strikes landed / min 7.2
52% striking accuracy 55%
2.0 strikes absorbed / min 4.5
45% striking defence 52%
3.6 takedowns / 15 min 2.3
38% takedown accuracy 66%
57% takedown defence 88%
1.2 submissions / 15 min 1.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market36% vs 30%
Consensus112 of 239 analysts
Sharpest angleTorres by KO/TKO — 18 of 21 method calls
Recommendation Back Torres @ $3.35 · fair $2.78 +20% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WB WeeklyMMA Breakdowns picks Grant Dawson VALUE “Grant Dawson versus Manuel Torres”
HI HilexMMA picks Manuel Torres “I think Manuel Torres might get it done,”
FI FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Grant Dawson “I'm taking Grant Dawson”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I think he finishes this fight uh around late second round, early third round or in the third round... by Grant Dawson... by TKO KOD DQ.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Grant Dawson “I'm taking Grant Dawson.”
IM IJB MMA picks Manuel Torres “I'm picking Manuel Torres.”
PI PibbleMMA picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I picked Grant Dawson.”
RX RX picks Manuel Torres “Manuel Torres is actually going to win this yeah, give me Manuel Torres first... Manuel Torres by knockout”
MT MMA Tugg picks Grant Dawson “Listen, we're riding with Grant Dawson.”
MB Matty Betss picks Grant Dawson “So, I think that Grant Dawson going to be on Manuel Torres by”
BS Betting Weekly Studios picks Grant Dawson “Grant Dawson to win inside the distance.”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Grant Dawson “Grant Dawson a bit favors Grant Dawson, leans more into his Grant Dawson taking over”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Dawson23-3-1
W Rębecki Submission · R3 May '26
L Torres KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Ferreira Decision · R3 Jan '25
W García KO/TKO · R2 Oct '24
W Solecki Decision · R3 Jun '24
Torres17-3
L Fiziev KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
W Dawson KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Dober KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
L Bahamondes KO/TKO · R1 Sep '24
W Duncan Submission · R1 Feb '24