Choose a fight to analyse
MD
PY
Dvalishvili vs YanMain Card · Bantamweight
AP
JV
Pantoja vs VanMain Card · Flyweight
BM
TT
Moreno vs TairaMain Card · Flyweight
HC
PT
Cejudo vs TalbottMain Card · Bantamweight
JB
BG
Błachowicz vs GuskovMain Card · Light Heavyweight
GD
MT
Dawson vs TorresPreliminary Card · Lightweight
TM
CD
McKinney vs DuncanPreliminary Card · Lightweight
MB
KS
Barber vs SilvaPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
NS
FZ
Sadykhov vs ZiamPreliminary Card · Lightweight
MV
BF
Vettori vs FerreiraEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
EB
JT
Barboza vs TurnerEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
IB
İA
Baraniewski vs AslanEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
MA
AT
Abdul-Malik vs TrócoliEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
MN
MS
Naimov vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
PY
Dvalishvili vs YanMain Card · Bantamweight
AP
JV
Pantoja vs VanMain Card · Flyweight
BM
TT
Moreno vs TairaMain Card · Flyweight
HC
PT
Cejudo vs TalbottMain Card · Bantamweight
JB
BG
Błachowicz vs GuskovMain Card · Light Heavyweight
GD
MT
Dawson vs TorresPreliminary Card · Lightweight
TM
CD
McKinney vs DuncanPreliminary Card · Lightweight
MB
KS
Barber vs SilvaPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
NS
FZ
Sadykhov vs ZiamPreliminary Card · Lightweight
MV
BF
Vettori vs FerreiraEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
EB
JT
Barboza vs TurnerEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
IB
İA
Baraniewski vs AslanEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
MA
AT
Abdul-Malik vs TrócoliEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
MN
MS
Naimov vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Santos
over Naimov · Catchweight
Our fair value$1.42
1xBet
pays above fair
$1.45
Best prices · Santos
BetOnline.ag · US
$1.43
William Hill (UK) · UK
$1.40
1xBet · EU
$1.45
PointsBet (AU) · AU
$1.42
Where to back Santos
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.42
US
BetOnline.ag
$1.43
+0%
BetOnline.ag
$1.43
+0%
UK
William Hill (UK)
$1.40
-2%
William Hill (UK)
$1.40
-2%
EU
1XB
1xBet
$1.45
+2%
AU
PointsBet (AU)
$1.42
-0%
PointsBet (AU)
$1.42
-0%
PM
PM
Polymarket crowd exchange
$1.47
How it endsmethod calls · Santos · crowd line
KO/TKO
2
$16.36
Decision
21
$1.56
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Naimov 11-3
VS
15-1 Santos
5'9"
height
5'7"
146 lb
weight
155 lb
70"
reach
72"
31
age
26
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
3.2
strikes landed / min
4.8
43%
striking accuracy
46%
4.3
strikes absorbed / min
1.9
42%
striking defence
57%
1.8
takedowns / 15 min
0.0
30%
takedown accuracy
0%
57%
takedown defence
0%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market70% vs 69%
Consensus163 of 224 analysts
Sharpest angleSantos by Decision — 21 of 23 method calls
Recommendation
Back Santos @ $1.45 · fair $1.42
+2% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
FI
FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Mairon Santos
“Um, Mairon Santos, however you say his name.”
FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Mairon Santos
“Um, Mairon Santos, however you say his name.”
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Muhammad Naimov VALUE
“my pick, Muhammad Neov, and my tapology pick is also Muhammad Neyov.”
Capper Comparison Picks picks Muhammad Naimov VALUE
“my pick, Muhammad Neov, and my tapology pick is also Muhammad Neyov.”
TD
The DubCast picks Muhammad Naimov
“sprinkle some money on Muhammad Naimov, but with Muhammad Naimov moneyline like you said, great”
The DubCast picks Muhammad Naimov
“sprinkle some money on Muhammad Naimov, but with Muhammad Naimov moneyline like you said, great”
IM
IJB MMA picks Mairon Santos
“the safe pick here is Mairon Santos by decision.”
IJB MMA picks Mairon Santos
“the safe pick here is Mairon Santos by decision.”
PI
PibbleMMA picks Mairon Santos VALUE
“Mairon Santos goes over a round and a half.”
PibbleMMA picks Mairon Santos VALUE
“Mairon Santos goes over a round and a half.”
PI
PibbleMMA picks Muhammad Naimov VALUE
“I'm still going to pick him to beat Muhammad Naimov.”
PibbleMMA picks Muhammad Naimov VALUE
“I'm still going to pick him to beat Muhammad Naimov.”
BD
Big Dave picks Mairon Santos
“I'm going Mairon Santos. I think he is a good striker. I think he's [snorts] strong enough to not get taken down. I think Muhammad Naimov likes to wrestle. He likes to put guys against the cage. So, I guess if he can pressure Mairon Santos and get him back behind the black line and kind of force him to make a choice whether he's going to defend a takedown or strike, he could do it. But, I think Mairon Santos has some good knees. He's got some good uppercuts. He seems very uh deadly going straight down the middle. So, I think it's going to turn into a kickboxing fight for the most part. And I think Mairon Santos is the sharper kickboxer. And that's basically what I'm going to pick. I'm going to pick him to just kind of outwork Nimov on the feet and defend himself from getting taken down and hopefully not get caught with any crazy swings.”
Big Dave picks Mairon Santos
“I'm going Mairon Santos. I think he is a good striker. I think he's [snorts] strong enough to not get taken down. I think Muhammad Naimov likes to wrestle. He likes to put guys against the cage. So, I guess if he can pressure Mairon Santos and get him back behind the black line and kind of force him to make a choice whether he's going to defend a takedown or strike, he could do it. But, I think Mairon Santos has some good knees. He's got some good uppercuts. He seems very uh deadly going straight down the middle. So, I think it's going to turn into a kickboxing fight for the most part. And I think Mairon Santos is the sharper kickboxer. And that's basically what I'm going to pick. I'm going to pick him to just kind of outwork Nimov on the feet and defend himself from getting taken down and hopefully not get caught with any crazy swings.”
RX
RX picks Mairon Santos
“Mairon Santos by decision.”
RX picks Mairon Santos
“Mairon Santos by decision.”
MM
MMAFightingonSBN picks Muhammad Naimov
“...”
MMAFightingonSBN picks Muhammad Naimov
“...”
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Mairon Santos VALUE
“my actual best bet, my make Sanchez by or Mairon Santos by decision ... keep chasing Mairon Santos right now and minus 185. But Mairon Santos by decision”
$1.54
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Mairon Santos VALUE
“my actual best bet, my make Sanchez by or Mairon Santos by decision ... keep chasing Mairon Santos right now and minus 185. But Mairon Santos by decision”
$1.54
KU
Kamaru Usman picks Muhammad Naimov
“think Muhammad Naimov is just more of a Muhammad Naimov.”
Kamaru Usman picks Muhammad Naimov
“think Muhammad Naimov is just more of a Muhammad Naimov.”
BM
Bloodsport MMA picks Mairon Santos
“Maron believe that Mairon Santos will win this”
Bloodsport MMA picks Mairon Santos
“Maron believe that Mairon Santos will win this”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Naimov11-3
L
Santos
Dec '25
W
Grad
Jun '25
W
Ofli
Feb '25
L
Lima
Jun '24
W
Silva
Feb '24
Santos15-1
W
Naimov
Dec '25
W
Yusuff
May '25
W
Marshall
Mar '25
W
Ofli
Aug '24