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UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
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ME LM Evloev vs MurphyMain Card · Featherweight MP SP Page vs PattersonMain Card · Welterweight IB AL Baraniewski vs LaneMain Card · Light Heavyweight RD CD Dolidze vs DuncanMain Card · Middleweight KC DS Campbell vs SilvaMain Card · Featherweight MJ AS Jones vs SolaPreliminary Card · Lightweight NW LK Wood vs KeitaPreliminary Card · Featherweight LS BP Sutherland vs PeričićPreliminary Card · Heavyweight MK AT Kondratavičius vs TrócoliPreliminary Card · Middleweight MP FF Pinto vs FrancoPreliminary Card · Heavyweight SR AA Rock vs Al-SelwadyPreliminary Card · Lightweight SD RO Dyer vs OliveiraPreliminary Card · Catchweight LR MJ Riley vs Jr.Main Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Page over Patterson · Welterweight Our fair value$1.52 LeoVegas (SE) pays above fair $1.56
Where to back Page best price · region · EV vs fair $1.52
US BetUS $1.54 +2%
UK William Hill (UK) $1.53 +1%
EU LeoVegas (SE) $1.56 +3%
AU Bet Right $1.53 +1%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.56
Consensus224 picks · conf 99/99
Page 159
65 Patterson
PMMMUS pick Page
How it endsmethod calls · Page · crowd line
KO/TKO 9 $4.21
Decision 15 $2.53
None 1 $37.89
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Page 24-3 VS 14-2-1 Patterson
6'3" height 6'3"
170 lb weight 170 lb
79" reach 78"
39 age 30
Switch stance Orthodox
2.4 strikes landed / min 5.1
65% striking accuracy 57%
1.4 strikes absorbed / min 2.1
54% striking defence 57%
0.4 takedowns / 15 min 1.3
25% takedown accuracy 31%
63% takedown defence 71%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 1.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market66% vs 64%
Consensus159 of 224 analysts
Sharpest anglePage by Decision — 15 of 25 method calls
Recommendation Back Page @ $1.56 · fair $1.52 +3% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
PI PibbleMMA picks Sam Patterson VALUE “We're riding for Sam Patterson”
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Sam Patterson “Like would I say I'm going to go with Sam Patterson cuz I I'm gonna go with Sam Patterson in this”
TE Teep_Muaythai picks Sam Patterson “Sam Patterson going to sub Michael Page.”
FK Fight Kings picks Sam Patterson VALUE “I'm looking forward to the Sam Patterson fight.”
FF Fight Night Frankie picks Sam Patterson VALUE “I think NOT_IN_ROSTER_5's just going to do NOT_IN_ROSTER_5 things. I think he's going to embarrass Sam Patterson in there. I don't think he's going to get the knockout like some people are predicting. I think it will be a decision. But I think it will be a lopsided three rounds to nil decision. I genuinely think so.”
SM Surnett MMA picks Sam Patterson VALUE “I'm going with NOT_IN_ROSTER_20.”
LM Loki MMA picks Michael Page “Michael Page will be able to withstand the early exchanges and be able to get the decision”
LM Loki MMA picks Sam Patterson “Austen Lane's chin is very suspect”
LI liltoaster picks Michael Page “Yeah, I'm going with Michael Page”
AN Andy_MMA picks Sam Patterson VALUE “I'm taking Sam Patterson to win purely based off the fact I do not like Michael Venom Page.”
TF The Fight Forecast picks Sam Patterson VALUE “just moneyline Sam Patterson”
TE TeejMMA picks Michael Page “Michael Page by unanimous Michael Page by 3027.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Page24-3
W Patterson Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Cannonier Decision · R3 Aug '25
W Magomedov Decision · R3 Feb '25
L Garry Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Holland Decision · R3 Mar '24
Patterson14-2-1
L Page Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Waters KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25
W Barlow KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
W Crosbie Submission · R1 Jul '24
W Lainesse Submission · R1 Jan '24