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BEST PRICE We back Pinto over Franco · Heavyweight Our fair value$1.12 Betfair Sportsbook pays above fair $1.13
Where to back Pinto best price · region · EV vs fair $1.12
US FanDuel $1.12 +0%
UK Betfair Sportsbook $1.13 +1%
EU Pinnacle $1.12 +0%
AU PointsBet (AU) $1.11 -1%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.14
Consensus157 picks · conf 99/99
Pinto 146
11 Franco
PWUUKW pick Pinto
How it endsmethod calls · Pinto · crowd line
KO/TKO 24 $1.44
Submission 2 $17.34
Decision 4 $8.67
None 1 $34.67
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Pinto 11-0 VS 10-1 Franco
6'5" height 6'1"
255 lb weight 205 lb
79" reach 76"
28 age 25
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.0 strikes landed / min —
41% striking accuracy —
4.3 strikes absorbed / min —
69% striking defence —
1.4 takedowns / 15 min —
47% takedown accuracy —
55% takedown defence —
1.7 submissions / 15 min —
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market89% vs 88%
Consensus146 of 157 analysts
Sharpest anglePinto by KO/TKO — 24 of 31 method calls
Recommendation Back Pinto @ $1.13 · fair $1.12 +1% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
PW P Welsh picks Mário Pinto VALUE “I think his last bite 15-4 coming off a canceled fight... I think Pinto getting his first like decision, not decision win here, but like taking uh Franco to decision... I think he can get a third one here.”
TE Teep_Muaythai picks Mário Pinto “Mário Pinto by submission in round one.”
SM Surnett MMA picks Mário Pinto VALUE “Mário Pinto needs needs to go”
LM Loki MMA picks Mário Pinto “I'm going to go Pinto by knockout”
LM Loki MMA picks Felipe Franco “I'm going to go Pinto by knockout”
JP Jpunt picks Mário Pinto “I'm going Mário Pinto by KO. 1.65 odds, one unit. Um, so yeah, Mário Pinto, maybe he”
TP The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Mário Pinto VALUE “I like Mário Pinto and honestly seeing a little bit of his grappling chops. I'm thinking that he has a uh pretty good chance of making it into like the top 10 of the division. Give me Mário Pinto here.”
TP The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Felipe Franco VALUE “Yeah, I I think Mário Pinto hopefully gets him out of there round one... I think this is maybe shouldn't have been booked. Dude, this is a legit heavyweight versus a light heavyweight.”
AN Andy_MMA picks Mário Pinto VALUE “I'm going to say he gets it done via decision.”
NE NeverWrongMMA picks Mário Pinto “I think Mário Pinto is a KO. I see Mário Pinto getting the this guy's going to KO Felipe Franco.”
AN AntUFC picks Mário Pinto VALUE “I'm gonna get a KO I think left hook maybe again or straight punches in the center.”
MM Mayor MMA picks Mário Pinto VALUE “I'm going Mario.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Pinto11-0
W Franco Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Diniz KO/TKO · R2 Oct '25
W Lane KO/TKO · R2 Mar '25
Franco10-1
L Pinto Decision · R3 Mar '26