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UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
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ME LM Evloev vs MurphyMain Card · Featherweight MP SP Page vs PattersonMain Card · Welterweight IB AL Baraniewski vs LaneMain Card · Light Heavyweight RD CD Dolidze vs DuncanMain Card · Middleweight KC DS Campbell vs SilvaMain Card · Featherweight MJ AS Jones vs SolaPreliminary Card · Lightweight NW LK Wood vs KeitaPreliminary Card · Featherweight LS BP Sutherland vs PeričićPreliminary Card · Heavyweight MK AT Kondratavičius vs TrócoliPreliminary Card · Middleweight MP FF Pinto vs FrancoPreliminary Card · Heavyweight SR AA Rock vs Al-SelwadyPreliminary Card · Lightweight SD RO Dyer vs OliveiraPreliminary Card · Catchweight LR MJ Riley vs Jr.Main Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Baraniewski over Lane · Light Heavyweight Our fair value$1.14 PlayUp pays above fair $1.17
Where to back Baraniewski best price · region · EV vs fair $1.14
US FanDuel $1.17 +2%
UK William Hill (UK) $1.17 +2%
EU Unibet (SE) $1.17 +2%
AU PlayUp $1.17 +2%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.18
Consensus168 picks · conf 99/99
Baraniewski 157
11 Lane
PMTWUU pick Baraniewski
How it endsmethod calls · Baraniewski · crowd line
KO/TKO 30 $1.22
Submission 2 $18.26
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Baraniewski 8-0 VS 13-7 Lane
6'0" height 6'6"
206 lb weight 205 lb
74" reach 80"
27 age 38
Orthodox stance Orthodox
— strikes landed / min 2.5
— striking accuracy 50%
— strikes absorbed / min 2.4
— striking defence 40%
— takedowns / 15 min 2.0
— takedown accuracy 30%
— takedown defence 0%
— submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market88% vs 85%
Consensus157 of 168 analysts
Sharpest angleBaraniewski by KO/TKO — 30 of 32 method calls
Recommendation Back Baraniewski @ $1.17 · fair $1.14 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
KU Kunath picks Iwo Baraniewski VALUE “I think uh Iwo Baraniewski is gonna knock him out probably in like the first minute or two of the fight.”
LM Loki MMA picks Austen Lane “I'm going to go montage by knockout”
TE TeejMMA picks Iwo Baraniewski “Iwo Baraniewski by KO. I'mma go honestly Lane. Now, if you know Austen Lane, this”
NC Nick Cieslak picks Iwo Baraniewski “I'm going to take Iwo Baraniewski in this fight.”
MM Mayor MMA picks Iwo Baraniewski VALUE “I'm kind of worried about Austen Lane maybe winning this.”
TC The Finz Chats picks Iwo Baraniewski VALUE “I will also be taking Iwo Baraniewski”
BM Bozing MMA picks Iwo Baraniewski “I think this fight is going to be a round one knockout for him.”
BR Bro$TalkMma picks Iwo Baraniewski “I'm going with Iwo Baraniewski”
MT MMAbouts Talks picks Iwo Baraniewski “Iwo Baraniewski first round KO.”
TO The MMA Outlaw picks Iwo Baraniewski “think Iwo Baraniewski probably gets this fight fight. ... give me Iwo Baraniewski Iwo Baraniewski.”
JO JohnnyCash$MMA picks Iwo Baraniewski “Give me Iwo Baraniewski straight. Iwo Baraniewski. one, man.”
MM MMAbettingbeast picks Iwo Baraniewski “I'm going to pick Iwo Baraniewski”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Baraniewski8-0
W Tafa KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
W Lane KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
W Aslan KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
Lane13-7
L Baraniewski KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
L Petrino Submission · R1 Jul '25
L Pinto KO/TKO · R2 Mar '25
W Despaigne Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Diniz KO/TKO · R2 Apr '24