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UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
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ME LM Evloev vs MurphyMain Card · Featherweight MP SP Page vs PattersonMain Card · Welterweight IB AL Baraniewski vs LaneMain Card · Light Heavyweight RD CD Dolidze vs DuncanMain Card · Middleweight KC DS Campbell vs SilvaMain Card · Featherweight MJ AS Jones vs SolaPreliminary Card · Lightweight NW LK Wood vs KeitaPreliminary Card · Featherweight LS BP Sutherland vs PeričićPreliminary Card · Heavyweight MK AT Kondratavičius vs TrócoliPreliminary Card · Middleweight MP FF Pinto vs FrancoPreliminary Card · Heavyweight SR AA Rock vs Al-SelwadyPreliminary Card · Lightweight SD RO Dyer vs OliveiraPreliminary Card · Catchweight LR MJ Riley vs Jr.Main Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Leroy Duncan over Dolidze · Middleweight Our fair value$1.23 Unibet (UK) pays above fair $1.25
Where to back Leroy Duncan best price · region · EV vs fair $1.23
US BetOnline.ag $1.25 +2%
UK Unibet (UK) $1.25 +2%
EU Pinnacle $1.24 +1%
AU PointsBet (AU) $1.23 +0%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.27
Consensus210 picks · conf 99/99
Dolidze 30
180 Leroy Duncan
MSHVBS pick Dolidze
How it endsmethod calls · Leroy Duncan · crowd line
KO/TKO 17 $2.10
Decision 11 $3.24
None 1 $35.64
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Dolidze 15-4 VS 13-2 Leroy Duncan
6'2" height 6'2"
185 lb weight 185 lb
76" reach 79"
37 age 30
Orthodox stance Switch
3.2 strikes landed / min 4.7
42% striking accuracy 62%
3.4 strikes absorbed / min 3.6
50% striking defence 49%
1.3 takedowns / 15 min 0.3
42% takedown accuracy 14%
33% takedown defence 64%
1.1 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market81% vs 80%
Consensus180 of 210 analysts
Sharpest angleLeroy Duncan by KO/TKO — 17 of 29 method calls
Recommendation Back Leroy Duncan @ $1.25 · fair $1.23 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
PI PibbleMMA picks Christian Leroy Duncan VALUE “Christian Leroy Duncan is going to the Nathaniel Wood fight”
PW P Welsh picks Roman Dolidze VALUE “I think he's going to sneak up and just get a disgusting decision win... I really just see kind of this a kind of disgusting fight going on here... I think Roman Dolidze can get the better of him.”
SM Surnett MMA picks Roman Dolidze VALUE “I'm going Roman Dolidze by crafty... decision.”
LM Loki MMA picks Christian Leroy Duncan “I have Christian Leroy Duncan with a second round finish”
LM Loki MMA picks Roman Dolidze “Christian Christian Leroy Duncan should smoke Roman Dolidze Masterclass on him”
LI liltoaster picks Roman Dolidze “I'm going with Roman Dolidze.”
TP The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Christian Leroy Duncan VALUE “I think the sky's is the limit for Christian Leroy Duncan. It's just about he puts it together on fight night. Dude's got all the tools to to be a top middleweight in the world. I think he gets the job done.”
AN Andy_MMA picks Christian Leroy Duncan VALUE “I'm going Christian Leroy Duncan.”
AN AntUFC picks Roman Dolidze VALUE “I have to go with NOT_IN_ROSTER_17 in this one.”
NC Nick Cieslak picks Christian Leroy Duncan “I'm going to pick him to win this fight.”
TC The Finz Chats picks Christian Leroy Duncan VALUE “I will also be taking Christian Leroy Duncan”
BM Bozing MMA picks Christian Leroy Duncan “I think Christian Leroy Duncan will dominate this fight.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Dolidze15-4
L Duncan Decision · R3 Mar '26
L Hernandez Submission · R4 Aug '25
W Vettori Decision · R5 Mar '25
W Holland KO/TKO · R1 Oct '24
W Smith Decision · R3 Jun '24
Leroy Duncan13-2
W Dolidze Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Tulio KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
W Anders KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25
W Pulyaev Decision · R3 Mar '25
L Rodrigues Decision · R3 Jul '24