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UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
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BEST PRICE We back Wood over Keita · Featherweight Our fair value$2.55 Pinnacle pays above fair $3.31
Where to back Wood best price · region · EV vs fair $2.55
US Bovada $3.30 +29%
UK Unibet (UK) $3.20 +25%
EU Pinnacle $3.31 +30%
AU Ladbrokes AU $3.20 +25%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $3.57
Consensus179 picks · conf 99/99
Wood 103
76 Keita
PTWSJI pick Wood
How it endsmethod calls · Wood · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $43.42
Decision 16 $2.71
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Wood 22-6 VS 16-1 Keita
5'6" height 5'9"
146 lb weight 145 lb
69" reach 72"
33 age 28
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.8 strikes landed / min 2.8
51% striking accuracy 56%
4.0 strikes absorbed / min 4.3
56% striking defence 48%
1.6 takedowns / 15 min 1.5
48% takedown accuracy 37%
72% takedown defence 58%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 1.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market39% vs 30%
Consensus103 of 179 analysts
Sharpest angleWood by Decision — 16 of 17 method calls
Recommendation Back Wood @ $3.31 · fair $2.55 +30% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
PW P Welsh picks Nathaniel Wood VALUE “Nathaniel Wood by finish... I think this guy Kate could get rocked, make a mistake, and either get caught and get clubbing subbed or, you know, something like that.”
TE Teep_Muaythai picks Nathaniel Wood “give me Nathaniel Wood by 3027 decision.”
LM Loki MMA picks Nathaniel Wood “I have Nathaniel Wood by a tough decision”
LM Loki MMA picks Losene Keita “I have Nathaniel Wood by a tough decision”
TP The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Losene Keita VALUE “I'm on the Ka side... I feel like I may, maybe you as well have been hitting the unders in the wood fights. He just keeps on slipping through the cracks and I think that this is finally the guy who's going to catch him. So, I'm on the under here. I'm on the Ka side.”
TP The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Nathaniel Wood VALUE “I'm on the Nathaniel Wood side at plus 225... He's just such a good complete fighter and Lucen Ka just to me is drawing dead to a KO. So, give me Wood.”
AN Andy_MMA picks Nathaniel Wood VALUE “I'm going to take Nathaniel Wood to get a down via decision.”
NE NeverWrongMMA picks Nathaniel Wood VALUE “I think it's going to be very similar to Mason Jones. I think Nathaniel Wood is a I think he's a vet at this stage in his UFC career... He's going to win this fight.”
NC Nick Cieslak picks Nathaniel Wood “I like Nathaniel Wood a lot and I'm picking him to win another fight here in the UFC featherweight division”
BM Bozing MMA picks Nathaniel Wood “So, I think in this fight, I got Nathaniel Wood by decision.”
CS Connor Smith picks Nathaniel Wood VALUE “I got Kea be a first round knockout or TK over Nathaniel of a Nathaniel Wood in one in London.”
41 410sfinestcap picks Nathaniel Wood VALUE “Nathaniel Wood by decision” $2.94
Recent form last five, most recent first
Wood22-6
W Keita Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Delgado Decision · R3 Oct '25
W Charrière Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Pineda Decision · R3 Jul '24
L Naimov Decision · R3 Oct '23
Keita16-1
L Wood Decision · R3 Mar '26