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BEST PRICE We back Jones over Sola · Lightweight Our fair value$1.64 Unibet (SE) pays above fair $1.77
Where to back Jones best price · region · EV vs fair $1.64
US BetOnline.ag $1.72 +5%
UK Betway $1.73 +6%
EU Unibet (SE) $1.77 +8%
AU PointsBet (AU) $1.70 +4%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.72
Consensus174 picks · conf 99/99
Jones 123
51 Sola
PWUSTI pick Jones
How it endsmethod calls · Jones · crowd line
KO/TKO 5 $7.86
Submission 2 $19.66
Decision 17 $2.31
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Jones 17-2 VS 11-0-1 Sola
5'10" height 5'11"
156 lb weight 155 lb
74" reach 74"
31 age 28
Orthodox stance Southpaw
2.7 strikes landed / min 4.0
59% striking accuracy 37%
3.8 strikes absorbed / min 2.8
58% striking defence 73%
0.6 takedowns / 15 min 1.3
67% takedown accuracy 56%
84% takedown defence 60%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 0.6
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market61% vs 56%
Consensus123 of 174 analysts
Sharpest angleJones by Decision — 17 of 24 method calls
Recommendation Back Jones @ $1.77 · fair $1.64 +8% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
PI PibbleMMA picks Axel Sola VALUE “I'm gonna say Axel Sola gets a Kurtis Campbell”
TE Teep_Muaythai picks Mason Jones “I think he's going to win by 2928 decision.”
KU Kunath picks Mason Jones “I like Mason Jones”
SM Surnett MMA picks Mason Jones VALUE “I'm going to go Mason Jones Mason Jones decision”
LM Loki MMA picks Axel Sola “I have Mason Jones getting it done by just mixing in more of that ground game and more of that clinch work and getting the decision”
LM Loki MMA picks Mason Jones “I have Mason Jones getting it done by just mixing in more of that ground game and more of that clinch work and getting the decision”
LI liltoaster picks Mason Jones “I'm picking Mason Jones.”
TP The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Mason Jones VALUE “I just think that Axel Solola looked good at 170 last time out. Now he's at his weight class of 155. It still looks huge on the scale... Yeah, plus 125. Give me Axel Sola.”
TP The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Axel Sola VALUE “I'm on the Sol Axel Sola side... I think that we're both seeing it the same way... So Axel Sola by decision.”
AN Andy_MMA picks Mason Jones VALUE “Mason Jones wins. Easy. This one.”
VI VinceMMA picks Mason Jones “I'm going to pick Axel Sola here.”
NE NeverWrongMMA picks Mason Jones VALUE “Easy peasy. He'll win round two and round three.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Jones17-2
W Sola Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Oki KO/TKO · R2 Sep '25
W Stephens Decision · R3 May '25
L Klein Decision · R3 Jul '22
W Onama Decision · R3 Oct '21
Sola11-0-1
L Jones Decision · R3 Mar '26
W McKee KO/TKO · R3 Sep '25