Choose a fight to analyse
AH
MP
Hernandez vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight
RF
KP
Font vs PhillipsMain Card · Bantamweight
CJ
SM
Johnson vs MudaerjiMain Card · Flyweight
CS
JH
Smotherman vs HadleyMain Card · Bantamweight
DE
DP
Elkins vs PinedaMain Card · Featherweight
AA
MN
Almabayev vs NicolauPreliminary Card · Flyweight
JM
BK
Matsumoto vs KatonaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
JE
TV
Edwards vs VidalPreliminary Card · Catchweight
ER
JP
Reed vs PennePreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
MM
AA
Martinez vs ArdeleanPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
AL
RD
Lane vs DespaignePreliminary Card · Heavyweight
MP
Hernandez vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight
RF
KP
Font vs PhillipsMain Card · Bantamweight
CJ
SM
Johnson vs MudaerjiMain Card · Flyweight
CS
JH
Smotherman vs HadleyMain Card · Bantamweight
DE
DP
Elkins vs PinedaMain Card · Featherweight
AA
MN
Almabayev vs NicolauPreliminary Card · Flyweight
JM
BK
Matsumoto vs KatonaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
JE
TV
Edwards vs VidalPreliminary Card · Catchweight
ER
JP
Reed vs PennePreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
MM
AA
Martinez vs ArdeleanPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
AL
RD
Lane vs DespaignePreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Pereira
over Hernandez · Middleweight
Our fair value$2.02
pays above fair
$2.29
Best prices · Pereira
Bovada · US
$2.25
Unibet (UK) · UK
$2.23
Pinnacle · EU
$2.29
Unibet · AU
$2.23
Where to back Pereira
best price · region · EV vs fair $2.02
US
Bovada
$2.25
+12%
Bovada
$2.25
+12%
UK
Unibet (UK)
$2.23
+11%
Unibet (UK)
$2.23
+11%
EU
Pinnacle
$2.29
+14%
Pinnacle
$2.29
+14%
AU
Unibet
$2.23
+11%
Unibet
$2.23
+11%
How it endsmethod calls · Pereira · crowd line
KO/TKO
22
$2.75
Submission
6
$10.08
Decision
2
$30.23
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Hernandez 15-2
VS
32-14 Pereira
6'0"
height
6'1"
186 lb
weight
186 lb
75"
reach
73"
32
age
32
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.9
strikes landed / min
5.5
63%
striking accuracy
49%
2.9
strikes absorbed / min
4.0
46%
striking defence
59%
6.6
takedowns / 15 min
1.3
44%
takedown accuracy
59%
65%
takedown defence
59%
2.3
submissions / 15 min
1.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market50% vs 44%
Consensus45 of 71 analysts
Sharpest anglePereira by KO/TKO — 22 of 30 method calls
Recommendation
Back Pereira @ $2.29 · fair $2.02
+14% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
EM
Elijah House MMA picks Anthony Hernandez
“I think Anthony Hernandez wins in decision”
Elijah House MMA picks Anthony Hernandez
“I think Anthony Hernandez wins in decision”
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Anthony Hernandez VALUE
“my subscribers and I went with Anthony Anthony Hernandez”
$1.62
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Anthony Hernandez VALUE
“my subscribers and I went with Anthony Anthony Hernandez”
$1.62
KM
Keep it a Buck Media picks Michel Pereira
“I'm going to take Michel Pereira paja here the underdog here”
Keep it a Buck Media picks Michel Pereira
“I'm going to take Michel Pereira paja here the underdog here”
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Anthony Hernandez
“I have Anthony Hernandez by fourth round submission”
Capper Comparison Picks picks Anthony Hernandez
“I have Anthony Hernandez by fourth round submission”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Michel Pereira VALUE
“I think it is safe to play like I'm playing Michel Pereira Michel Pereira but Anthony Hernandez to win by submission you kind of have to like sprinkle a little bit on it ... but official pick Michel Pereira money line ... Anthony Hernandez to win by submission”
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Michel Pereira VALUE
“I think it is safe to play like I'm playing Michel Pereira Michel Pereira but Anthony Hernandez to win by submission you kind of have to like sprinkle a little bit on it ... but official pick Michel Pereira money line ... Anthony Hernandez to win by submission”
ES
etoft21 sports picks Michel Pereira VALUE
“I'm gonna go with the main card I'm gonna go with Michel Pereira”
etoft21 sports picks Michel Pereira VALUE
“I'm gonna go with the main card I'm gonna go with Michel Pereira”
KU
Kunath picks Anthony Hernandez
“grab P you've got Anthony Hernandez on the other side guaranteed winner”
Kunath picks Anthony Hernandez
“grab P you've got Anthony Hernandez on the other side guaranteed winner”
KU
Kunath picks Michel Pereira VALUE
“Michel Pereira Michel Pera sitting at the top of the Slate 7900 if he wins he's optimal he's that late hammer that you want he probably wins inside the distance”
Kunath picks Michel Pereira VALUE
“Michel Pereira Michel Pera sitting at the top of the Slate 7900 if he wins he's optimal he's that late hammer that you want he probably wins inside the distance”
AD
All-Star DFS picks Anthony Hernandez VALUE
“it's just a complete uh smash play and then last but not least Daniel Pineda versus Darren Elkins a great fight mid-range grappling UPS Darren alkin has all of the takedown upside in the world um and he has line value he's now a favorite minus 125 got just uh insane grappling upside line value um finishing like not a bad Finishing Line at all here plus 225 Daniel Pena great Finishing Line so you know what if because I'm seeing this D Alin the line value and the taked down upside I'm guessing he's going to have a higher medium projection and I'm guessing he's going to be higher owned than Daniel paneda and it could be like one of those classic things where Pan actually ends up as the better play when you bake in ownership so I like both sides of this a lot and if the ownership gets out of hand I'm gonna definitely try to force in some Daniel Pena at least with the field maybe above depending on on you know if this gets out of hand but we'll see I'll talk about that more tomorrow I'm going to be doing a live stream tomorrow uh before lock as well uh is there one Jake Hadley okay so this is the one J cadley 7.7k minus 500 11 fight card maybe 10 fights like we we keep on saying itd line minus 130 this is just is and he has takedown upside I mean this is just is there a takedown line yet no he has take down upside as well though this is just as close as you can get to uh to like the best play I've ever seen now will he be high owned will he be 50% own probably he should probably be 65 70% owned honestly it's that good of a play can it not work out yeah I guess Jay cadley wins at a decision doesn't put up many points and you somehow get a lot of upside just out of pure variance yeah sure so yeah I think it's viable to have a portion of lineups without without Jake Headley but overall it's just a a great play uh no secret there Cameron Smotherman yeah some some of it I guess plus 400 itd line plus 500 okay minimum price ton of Leverage yeah sure sure I think I'll play some of him just because of ownership but besides that you know I don't want to play him because I think he's going to win it's just that if if he wins the the payoff is is massive uh so I think that'll do it I'll be live tomorrow I'll um send an update in the Discord whenever that'll be probably around noon uh weird card it's going to get even weirder if this fidal and Joselyne Edwards fight gets canceled um but yeah that's about it I think you just you can leave some salary because we have this Jake Hadley value I think you can you know this is a week where I don't know if you anyone watches sheets but his sheets default setting I think this is the week to use that because you're you're going to need to just really get aggressive with with getting low owned lineups maybe even geom mean filtering on a week like this I don't know that's probably viable as well so that's that's all I got we'll talk about it a bit more tomorrow thank you guys for watching as always and I will see you guys in the next one”
All-Star DFS picks Anthony Hernandez VALUE
“it's just a complete uh smash play and then last but not least Daniel Pineda versus Darren Elkins a great fight mid-range grappling UPS Darren alkin has all of the takedown upside in the world um and he has line value he's now a favorite minus 125 got just uh insane grappling upside line value um finishing like not a bad Finishing Line at all here plus 225 Daniel Pena great Finishing Line so you know what if because I'm seeing this D Alin the line value and the taked down upside I'm guessing he's going to have a higher medium projection and I'm guessing he's going to be higher owned than Daniel paneda and it could be like one of those classic things where Pan actually ends up as the better play when you bake in ownership so I like both sides of this a lot and if the ownership gets out of hand I'm gonna definitely try to force in some Daniel Pena at least with the field maybe above depending on on you know if this gets out of hand but we'll see I'll talk about that more tomorrow I'm going to be doing a live stream tomorrow uh before lock as well uh is there one Jake Hadley okay so this is the one J cadley 7.7k minus 500 11 fight card maybe 10 fights like we we keep on saying itd line minus 130 this is just is and he has takedown upside I mean this is just is there a takedown line yet no he has take down upside as well though this is just as close as you can get to uh to like the best play I've ever seen now will he be high owned will he be 50% own probably he should probably be 65 70% owned honestly it's that good of a play can it not work out yeah I guess Jay cadley wins at a decision doesn't put up many points and you somehow get a lot of upside just out of pure variance yeah sure so yeah I think it's viable to have a portion of lineups without without Jake Headley but overall it's just a a great play uh no secret there Cameron Smotherman yeah some some of it I guess plus 400 itd line plus 500 okay minimum price ton of Leverage yeah sure sure I think I'll play some of him just because of ownership but besides that you know I don't want to play him because I think he's going to win it's just that if if he wins the the payoff is is massive uh so I think that'll do it I'll be live tomorrow I'll um send an update in the Discord whenever that'll be probably around noon uh weird card it's going to get even weirder if this fidal and Joselyne Edwards fight gets canceled um but yeah that's about it I think you just you can leave some salary because we have this Jake Hadley value I think you can you know this is a week where I don't know if you anyone watches sheets but his sheets default setting I think this is the week to use that because you're you're going to need to just really get aggressive with with getting low owned lineups maybe even geom mean filtering on a week like this I don't know that's probably viable as well so that's that's all I got we'll talk about it a bit more tomorrow thank you guys for watching as always and I will see you guys in the next one”
M👊
MMA.I. - UFC Predictions & Simulations 👊🎮 picks Michel Pereira
“Michel Michel Pereira is predicted to come out on top winning three out of five simulations with two simulation victories by knockout in the third and fourth rounds and one simulation Victory by submission in the fifth round”
MMA.I. - UFC Predictions & Simulations 👊🎮 picks Michel Pereira
“Michel Michel Pereira is predicted to come out on top winning three out of five simulations with two simulation victories by knockout in the third and fourth rounds and one simulation Victory by submission in the fifth round”
MM
MMAWeekly.com picks Anthony Hernandez
“14th ranked Melle pada rides an eight-fight win streak to the five-fight win streak of Anthony fluffy Hernandez Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira”
MMAWeekly.com picks Anthony Hernandez
“14th ranked Melle pada rides an eight-fight win streak to the five-fight win streak of Anthony fluffy Hernandez Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira”
TH
TheGreyFaction picks Anthony Hernandez
“I'm going to predict this fight will be a draw”
TheGreyFaction picks Anthony Hernandez
“I'm going to predict this fight will be a draw”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Hernandez15-2
L
Strickland
Feb '26
W
Dolidze
Aug '25
W
Allen
Feb '25
W
Pereira
Oct '24
W
Kopylov
Feb '24
Pereira32-14
L
Magomedov
Jun '26
W
Reese
Feb '26
L
Daukaus
Aug '25
L
Magomedov
Apr '25
L
Hernandez
Oct '24