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Font vs PhillipsMain Card · Bantamweight
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Johnson vs MudaerjiMain Card · Flyweight
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Smotherman vs HadleyMain Card · Bantamweight
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Elkins vs PinedaMain Card · Featherweight
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Almabayev vs NicolauPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Matsumoto vs KatonaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
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TV
Edwards vs VidalPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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Reed vs PennePreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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BEST PRICE
We back
Hadley
over Smotherman · Bantamweight
Our fair value$1.38
pays above fair
$2.35
Best prices · Hadley
Bally Bet · US
$2.35
Unibet (UK) · UK
$2.35
Unibet (EU) · EU
$2.35
Unibet · AU
$2.35
Where to back Hadley
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.38
US
Bally Bet
$2.35
+71%
Bally Bet
$2.35
+71%
UK
Unibet (UK)
$2.35
+71%
Unibet (UK)
$2.35
+71%
EU
Unibet (EU)
$2.35
+71%
Unibet (EU)
$2.35
+71%
AU
Unibet
$2.35
+71%
Unibet
$2.35
+71%
How it endsmethod calls · Hadley · crowd line
KO/TKO
3
$5.50
Submission
5
$3.30
Decision
4
$4.13
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Smotherman 12-6
VS
11-4 Hadley
5'9"
height
—
136 lb
weight
—
69"
reach
—
28
age
29
Orthodox
stance
Southpaw
6.2
strikes landed / min
3.8
37%
striking accuracy
43%
4.6
strikes absorbed / min
4.2
60%
striking defence
61%
0.0
takedowns / 15 min
0.3
0%
takedown accuracy
11%
50%
takedown defence
54%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
1.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market73% vs 43%
Consensus23 of 30 analysts
Sharpest angleHadley by Submission — 5 of 12 method calls
Recommendation
Back Hadley @ $2.35 · fair $1.38
+71% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
KM
Keep it a Buck Media picks Jake Hadley
“Jake Hadley gets a finish here for NOT_IN_ROSTER_22 Jake Hadley”
Keep it a Buck Media picks Jake Hadley
“Jake Hadley gets a finish here for NOT_IN_ROSTER_22 Jake Hadley”
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Jake Hadley
“I'm gonna take I'm gonna take white Kong Jake Hadley confidently”
$1.20
Capper Comparison Picks picks Jake Hadley
“I'm gonna take I'm gonna take white Kong Jake Hadley confidently”
$1.20
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Cameron Smotherman VALUE
“maybe a little upset from Cameron Smotherman I mean Jake Hadley is not the best ... I think Cameron Smotherman could win”
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Cameron Smotherman VALUE
“maybe a little upset from Cameron Smotherman I mean Jake Hadley is not the best ... I think Cameron Smotherman could win”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Jake Hadley VALUE
“my official pick is going to be Jake Hadley to get it done on the judges scorecards”
$1.20
MMA EXPERTS picks Jake Hadley VALUE
“my official pick is going to be Jake Hadley to get it done on the judges scorecards”
$1.20
I9
i9ines picks Jake Hadley
“I'm going to trust Jake Hadley who looked really good in his last performance that I counted him out in um I'm going to trust him to get this one done”
i9ines picks Jake Hadley
“I'm going to trust Jake Hadley who looked really good in his last performance that I counted him out in um I'm going to trust him to get this one done”
MN
Mayo Media Network picks Jake Hadley VALUE
“my cash game play of the week which is going to be Jake Hadley at 7.7k”
$1.20
Mayo Media Network picks Jake Hadley VALUE
“my cash game play of the week which is going to be Jake Hadley at 7.7k”
$1.20
MK
Morning Kombat picks Jake Hadley VALUE
“I'm going with Jake Hadley”
Morning Kombat picks Jake Hadley VALUE
“I'm going with Jake Hadley”
WP
We Want Picks picks Jake Hadley VALUE
“Jake cley is absolutely the pick”
We Want Picks picks Jake Hadley VALUE
“Jake cley is absolutely the pick”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Cameron Smotherman
“I think Jake cley uh for me uh I'm not really probably going to get the Smotherman here at 6,700 but I do like Hadley quite a bit as well everybody else he's going to have just a ton of ownership”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Cameron Smotherman
“I think Jake cley uh for me uh I'm not really probably going to get the Smotherman here at 6,700 but I do like Hadley quite a bit as well everybody else he's going to have just a ton of ownership”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jake Hadley VALUE
“I do like cley here I think it's a fight where he should not only win but probably finish this fight uh Cameron Smotherman I think the Chin's a serious concern I think the takedown defense is non-existent”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jake Hadley VALUE
“I do like cley here I think it's a fight where he should not only win but probably finish this fight uh Cameron Smotherman I think the Chin's a serious concern I think the takedown defense is non-existent”
TS
The SM Show picks Jake Hadley
“I got Jake Jake Hadley man by decision I don't see finish but maybe a finish maybe submission or something like that”
The SM Show picks Jake Hadley
“I got Jake Jake Hadley man by decision I don't see finish but maybe a finish maybe submission or something like that”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Smotherman12-6
L
Asakura
May '26
L
Simón
Jun '25
L
Sidey
May '25
W
Hadley
Oct '24
Hadley11-4
L
Smotherman
Oct '24
W
Loughran
Jul '24
L
Johnson
May '24
L
Durden
Aug '23
W
Gordon
Mar '23