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Elkins vs PinedaMain Card · Featherweight
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Almabayev vs NicolauPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Reed vs PennePreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Hernandez vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight
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Font vs PhillipsMain Card · Bantamweight
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Johnson vs MudaerjiMain Card · Flyweight
CS
JH
Smotherman vs HadleyMain Card · Bantamweight
DE
DP
Elkins vs PinedaMain Card · Featherweight
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Almabayev vs NicolauPreliminary Card · Flyweight
JM
BK
Matsumoto vs KatonaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
JE
TV
Edwards vs VidalPreliminary Card · Catchweight
ER
JP
Reed vs PennePreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Martinez vs ArdeleanPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Lane vs DespaignePreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Nicolau
over Almabayev · Flyweight
Our fair value$2.80
Bovada · US
$2.90
LiveScore Bet · UK
$2.88
Unibet · AU
$2.88
Where to back Nicolau
best price · region · EV vs fair $2.80
US
Bovada
$2.90
+4%
Bovada
$2.90
+4%
UK
LiveScore Bet
$2.88
+3%
LiveScore Bet
$2.88
+3%
EU
Pinnacle
$2.91
+4%
AU
Unibet
$2.88
+3%
Unibet
$2.88
+3%
How it endsmethod calls · Nicolau · crowd line
Submission
1
$14.02
Decision
4
$3.50
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Almabayev 23-3
VS
19-6-1 Nicolau
5'4"
height
5'6"
125 lb
weight
125 lb
65"
reach
66"
32
age
33
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
2.1
strikes landed / min
3.3
56%
striking accuracy
51%
1.0
strikes absorbed / min
3.0
59%
striking defence
65%
5.1
takedowns / 15 min
1.2
50%
takedown accuracy
43%
50%
takedown defence
90%
1.7
submissions / 15 min
0.8
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market36% vs 34%
Consensus19 of 50 analysts
Sharpest angleNicolau by Decision — 4 of 5 method calls
Recommendation
Back Nicolau @ $2.91 · fair $2.80
+4% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Asu Almabayev
“I settled on ASU amayev I think think he's going to be able to uh”
$1.44
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE
“I like Matheus Nicolau who just got smoked ... I think this a winnable fight for him ... official pick for this fight I think I'm buy wins a decision ... I like Matheus Nicolau plus three and a half”
KU
Kunath picks Asu Almabayev
“you can grab Asu Almabayev I think that Charles Johnson's going to get a little bit of love”
MM
MMAWeekly.com picks Asu Almabayev
“14th ranked at25 lbs Asu Almabayev takes on the seventh ranked Matheus Nicolau”
MC
MMA Vulture Clips picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“give me ASU alv to beat him and that's sitting at a negative 131”
$1.45
CM
Coty MMA picks Asu Almabayev
“I think U wins”
TP
Touch 'Em Up Podcast picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“even though my pick is Asu Almabayev”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“I'm picking alv with some relative confidence here that he's going to be able to put it on Maas Nichol”
$1.45
I9
i9ines picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“I think this is going to be another one for him I think Matas is going to shoot down even further down to like the bottom eight and Asu Almabayev is going to uh you know catapult himself up as a prospect”
WT
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE
“I'm taking Maas Nicola to get the job done”
$2.45
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Almabayev23-3
W
Johnson
Jun '26
W
Perez
Nov '25
W
Ochoa
Jul '25
L
Kape
Mar '25
W
Nicolau
Oct '24
Nicolau19-6-1
L
Almabayev
Oct '24
L
Perez
Apr '24
L
Royval
Apr '23
W
Schnell
Dec '22
W
Dvořák
Mar '22