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UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
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AH MP Hernandez vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight RF KP Font vs PhillipsMain Card · Bantamweight CJ SM Johnson vs MudaerjiMain Card · Flyweight CS JH Smotherman vs HadleyMain Card · Bantamweight DE DP Elkins vs PinedaMain Card · Featherweight AA MN Almabayev vs NicolauPreliminary Card · Flyweight JM BK Matsumoto vs KatonaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight JE TV Edwards vs VidalPreliminary Card · Catchweight ER JP Reed vs PennePreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight MM AA Martinez vs ArdeleanPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight AL RD Lane vs DespaignePreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE We back Nicolau over Almabayev · Flyweight Our fair value$2.80 Pinnacle pays above fair $2.91
Where to back Nicolau best price · region · EV vs fair $2.80
US Bovada $2.90 +4%
UK LiveScore Bet $2.88 +3%
EU Pinnacle $2.91 +4%
AU Unibet $2.88 +3%
Consensus50 picks · conf 70/99
Almabayev 31
19 Nicolau
TUEBCM pick Almabayev
How it endsmethod calls · Nicolau · crowd line
Submission 1 $14.02
Decision 4 $3.50
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Almabayev 23-3 VS 19-6-1 Nicolau
5'4" height 5'6"
125 lb weight 125 lb
65" reach 66"
32 age 33
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.1 strikes landed / min 3.3
56% striking accuracy 51%
1.0 strikes absorbed / min 3.0
59% striking defence 65%
5.1 takedowns / 15 min 1.2
50% takedown accuracy 43%
50% takedown defence 90%
1.7 submissions / 15 min 0.8
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market36% vs 34%
Consensus19 of 50 analysts
Sharpest angleNicolau by Decision — 4 of 5 method calls
Recommendation Back Nicolau @ $2.91 · fair $2.80 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Matheus Nicolau “my subscribers and I went with um ASU alabay” $1.54
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Asu Almabayev “I settled on ASU amayev I think think he's going to be able to uh” $1.44
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE “I like Matheus Nicolau who just got smoked ... I think this a winnable fight for him ... official pick for this fight I think I'm buy wins a decision ... I like Matheus Nicolau plus three and a half”
KU Kunath picks Asu Almabayev “you can grab Asu Almabayev I think that Charles Johnson's going to get a little bit of love”
MM MMAWeekly.com picks Asu Almabayev “14th ranked at25 lbs Asu Almabayev takes on the seventh ranked Matheus Nicolau”
MC MMA Vulture Clips picks Asu Almabayev VALUE “give me ASU alv to beat him and that's sitting at a negative 131” $1.45
CM Coty MMA picks Asu Almabayev “I think U wins”
TP Touch 'Em Up Podcast picks Asu Almabayev VALUE “even though my pick is Asu Almabayev”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Asu Almabayev VALUE “I'm picking alv with some relative confidence here that he's going to be able to put it on Maas Nichol” $1.45
I9 i9ines picks Asu Almabayev VALUE “I think this is going to be another one for him I think Matas is going to shoot down even further down to like the bottom eight and Asu Almabayev is going to uh you know catapult himself up as a prospect”
WT WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE “I'm taking Maas Nicola to get the job done” $2.45
BO Botmfeeder picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE “we're going Matas Nicola money line” $2.70
Recent form last five, most recent first
Almabayev23-3
W Johnson Submission · R3 Jun '26
W Perez Submission · R3 Nov '25
W Ochoa Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Kape KO/TKO · R3 Mar '25
W Nicolau Decision · R3 Oct '24
Nicolau19-6-1
L Almabayev Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Perez KO/TKO · R2 Apr '24
L Royval KO/TKO · R1 Apr '23
W Schnell KO/TKO · R2 Dec '22
W Dvořák Decision · R3 Mar '22